← Smart money
0xb665…bf8f
SharpEdge
-1.8pp
ROI
+15%
Win rate
4% @ 5.8¢
Brier
0.001
Resolved
1755
Avg size
$125
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 67% (4/6) | +22% | 6 |
| Other | 67% (4/6) | -4% | 6 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +11% | 1 |
- Politics6 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (4/6)
- ROI
- +22%
- Other6 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (4/6)
- ROI
- -4%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +11%
Track record
69% hit · 9/13| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | $117 | 79.2¢ | Lost |
| Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? | No | $6.9k | 89.3¢ | Won |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | $2.0k | 0.8¢ | Lost |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | Yes | $36 | 2.7¢ | Lost |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | Yes | $2.6k | 86.0¢ | Won |
| Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | No | $383 | 89.0¢ | Won |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | $102.4k | 80.5¢ | Won |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | No | $61.8k | 82.4¢ | Won |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | No | $15 | 89.7¢ | Won |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | Yes | $8.7k | 1.9¢ | Lost |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | $18 | 88.0¢ | Won |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24? | Yes | $104 | 86.4¢ | Won |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | $34.7k | 86.7¢ | Won |
- Yes$117 @ 79.2¢
- No$6.9k @ 89.3¢
- Yes$2.0k @ 0.8¢
- Yes$36 @ 2.7¢
- Yes$2.6k @ 86.0¢
- No$383 @ 89.0¢
- Yes$102.4k @ 80.5¢
- No$61.8k @ 82.4¢
- No$15 @ 89.7¢
- Yes$8.7k @ 1.9¢
- Yes$18 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$104 @ 86.4¢
- No$34.7k @ 86.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Politics | No | $71.2k | 85.8¢ |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $64.0k | 87.8¢ |
- No$71.2k @ 85.8¢
- Yes$64.0k @ 87.8¢