0xb635…f0fd

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb635ed37f1c0d796fa5de97aecdd67a9d975f0fd
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+36.7pp

ROI

+44%

Win rate

87% @ 50.6¢

Brier

0.244

Resolved

166

Avg size

$139

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	65% (13/20)	+15%	20
Politics	75% (3/4)	+64%	4
Economy	75% (3/4)	+115%	4
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+75%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other20 bets
Hit rate
65% (13/20)
ROI
+15%
Politics4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+64%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+115%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+75%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

67% hit · 20/30

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	Yes	$586	36.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$1.4k	73.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$3.2k	76.5¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$668	35.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	$907	59.3¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.7k	71.5¢	Won
James Comey arrested by May 15?	No	$100	26.8¢	Lost
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	$132	60.1¢	Won
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	$520	55.6¢	Lost
James Comey arrested by April 29?	Yes	$10	9.0¢	Won
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	$2.0k	54.9¢	Won
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$264	57.7¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	$57	51.0¢	Won
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?	Yes	$305	69.5¢	Won
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	No	$1.6k	31.5¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$153	5.3¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	$11	5.4¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	$206	29.8¢	Lost
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	$100	84.9¢	Won
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?	Yes	$102	57.2¢	Won
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$203	67.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$2.3k	73.8¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$462	53.8¢	Lost
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	$130	65.5¢	Won
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$1.3k	69.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	$102	28.0¢	Won
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	$205	49.8¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$3.0k	55.6¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	$250	42.5¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	$1.2k	58.9¢	Lost

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Won
Yes$586 @ 36.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 73.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$3.2k @ 76.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$668 @ 35.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Won
Yes$907 @ 59.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 71.5¢
James Comey arrested by May 15?Lost
No$100 @ 26.8¢
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Won
Yes$132 @ 60.1¢
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?Lost
Yes$520 @ 55.6¢
James Comey arrested by April 29?Won
Yes$10 @ 9.0¢
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?Won
No$2.0k @ 54.9¢
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$264 @ 57.7¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$57 @ 51.0¢
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?Won
Yes$305 @ 69.5¢
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?Won
No$1.6k @ 31.5¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$153 @ 5.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 5.4¢
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?Lost
No$206 @ 29.8¢
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Won
Yes$100 @ 84.9¢
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?Won
Yes$102 @ 57.2¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$203 @ 67.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$2.3k @ 73.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$462 @ 53.8¢
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Won
Yes$130 @ 65.5¢
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 69.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Won
No$102 @ 28.0¢
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Won
Yes$205 @ 49.8¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$3.0k @ 55.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?Won
No$250 @ 42.5¢
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?Lost
$60k$1.2k @ 58.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	72.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$0	23.1¢

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 72.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$0 @ 23.1¢