0xb523…4b8f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb52306b7b6607209eb4b34c5470b6d00c0aa4b8f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+15.3pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

35% @ 19.3¢

Brier

0.193

Resolved

523

Avg size

$19

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	33% (27/83)	+21%	83
Tech	44% (4/9)	+33%	9
Politics	50% (1/2)	-46%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+87%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other83 bets
Hit rate
33% (27/83)
ROI
+21%
Tech9 bets
Hit rate
44% (4/9)
ROI
+33%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-46%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+87%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

34% hit · 33/96

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on March 6, 2026?	Yes	$3	38.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 42.0 on February 6, 2026?	Yes	$1	6.9¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	No	$5	35.5¢	Won
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	$15	18.3¢	Lost
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$4	85.0¢	Won
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on February 6, 2026?	Yes	$29	62.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on February 20, 2026?	Yes	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 24, 2026?	Yes	$1	1.2¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on March 6, 2026?	Yes	$35	7.3¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?	Yes	$40	10.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	$187	37.4¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?	Yes	$8	75.0¢	Won
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?	No	$0	0.7¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on February 20, 2026?	Yes	$75	16.2¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on February 27, 2026?	Yes	$148	42.7¢	Won
Will Mayhem (Lady Gaga) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	$1	33.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?	Yes	$126	42.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	$132	39.0¢	Lost
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	$6	12.0¢	Lost
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?	No	$24	12.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 3, 2026?	No	$98	30.5¢	Won
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 3, 2026?	Yes	$3	10.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 42.5 on February 27, 2026?	Yes	$6	2.4¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	$4	2.9¢	Lost
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $153?	No	$5	12.6¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	$5	13.0¢	Won
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2?	No	$10	5.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	63.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	$750	75.0¢	Won
Will Apple dip to $232 in February?	No	$67	67.0¢	Won
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 10, 2026?	Yes	$24	8.1¢	Lost
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?	Yes	$292	85.9¢	Won
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.5 on February 13, 2026?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	No	$334	23.6¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	$1	33.0¢	Lost
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	Yes	$40	40.0¢	Won
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on February 13, 2026?	Yes	$9	13.3¢	Won
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	$14	6.1¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on March 13, 2026?	Yes	$62	10.9¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on February 27, 2026?	Yes	$65	9.8¢	Lost
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$176	35.1¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$280	40.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$248	4.8¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on March 27, 2026?	Yes	$74	36.9¢	Won
Bitcoin below MicroStrategy average buy price in 2026?	Yes	$39	84.5¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	No	$80	80.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.0 on March 13, 2026?	No	$213	52.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.0 on March 13, 2026?	Yes	$243	46.2¢	Won
Will Addison Rae win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	No	$95	18.9¢	Lost

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on March 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 38.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 42.0 on February 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.9¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
No$5 @ 35.5¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$15 @ 18.3¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 85.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on February 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$29 @ 62.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on February 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on March 6, 2026?Won
Yes$35 @ 7.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?Lost
Yes$40 @ 10.0¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Lost
Yes$187 @ 37.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?Won
Yes$8 @ 75.0¢
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?Lost
No$0 @ 0.7¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on February 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$75 @ 16.2¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on February 27, 2026?Won
Yes$148 @ 42.7¢
Will Mayhem (Lady Gaga) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Lost
Yes$1 @ 33.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?Lost
Yes$126 @ 42.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Lost
Yes$132 @ 39.0¢
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Lost
Yes$6 @ 12.0¢
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?Lost
No$24 @ 12.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 3, 2026?Won
No$98 @ 30.5¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 10.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 42.5 on February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 2.4¢
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.9¢
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 2 above $153?Won
No$5 @ 12.6¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Won
No$5 @ 13.0¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2?Lost
No$10 @ 5.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 63.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Won
Yes$750 @ 75.0¢
Will Apple dip to $232 in February?Won
No$67 @ 67.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$24 @ 8.1¢
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?Won
Yes$292 @ 85.9¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.5 on February 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Won
No$334 @ 23.6¢
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 33.0¢
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?Won
Yes$40 @ 40.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on February 13, 2026?Won
Yes$9 @ 13.3¢
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 6.1¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on March 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$62 @ 10.9¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$65 @ 9.8¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$176 @ 35.1¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$280 @ 40.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$248 @ 4.8¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on March 27, 2026?Won
Yes$74 @ 36.9¢
Bitcoin below MicroStrategy average buy price in 2026?Won
Yes$39 @ 84.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Lost
No$80 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.0 on March 13, 2026?Lost
No$213 @ 52.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.0 on March 13, 2026?Won
Yes$243 @ 46.2¢
Will Addison Rae win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Lost
No$95 @ 18.9¢

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