0xb51b…b4d9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb51b3beffd13cde071ed799e70a7b0b598e8b4d9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.4pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

64% @ 59.7¢

Brier

0.183

Resolved

4824

Avg size

$145

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	56% (102/181)	+28%	181
Other	57% (67/117)	+2%	117
Sports	47% (40/86)	-3%	86
Geopolitics	54% (26/48)	+10%	48
Tech	45% (10/22)	-49%	22
Culture	83% (5/6)	+30%	6
Science	50% (1/2)	+18%	2
Economy	100% (2/2)	+45%	2
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+135%	2

Politics181 bets
Hit rate
56% (102/181)
ROI
+28%
Other117 bets
Hit rate
57% (67/117)
ROI
+2%
Sports86 bets
Hit rate
47% (40/86)
ROI
-3%
Geopolitics48 bets
Hit rate
54% (26/48)
ROI
+10%
Tech22 bets
Hit rate
45% (10/22)
ROI
-49%
Culture6 bets
Hit rate
83% (5/6)
ROI
+30%
Science2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+18%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+45%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+135%

Track record

55% hit · 255/466

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$920	43.5¢	Lost
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$10	3.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	No	$200	87.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$100	12.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$45	45.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$590	59.0¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	Yes	$1.5k	68.0¢	Lost
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$20	41.4¢	Won
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$551	57.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.8k	22.8¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	Yes	$642	86.5¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	56.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$100	78.6¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$950	37.5¢	Lost
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	No	$5.0k	87.2¢	Won
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$19	0.5¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$110	55.0¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$2.5k	51.1¢	Lost
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$100	78.9¢	Won
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$1.6k	39.0¢	Lost
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Yes	$1.4k	83.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$312	52.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$900	83.6¢	Lost
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	$1.7k	89.6¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$400	68.0¢	Won
Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs Osaka	Osaka	$375	58.3¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	$13.9k	71.8¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$5	16.0¢	Lost
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	$101	87.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$118	29.9¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$152	1.4¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$236	59.0¢	Lost
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$205	41.1¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$881	70.5¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$516	23.9¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?	Yes	$100	55.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$100	51.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$666	30.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$124	30.1¢	Lost
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$21	7.0¢	Lost
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	$30	81.3¢	Won
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	$91	80.0¢	Won
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$15	27.3¢	Lost
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$50	7.5¢	Lost
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$10	8.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$1.6k	49.2¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$11.9k	83.3¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$15.0k	73.8¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$208	36.0¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$1.6k	56.8¢	Won

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$920 @ 43.5¢
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 87.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 12.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$45 @ 45.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$590 @ 59.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 68.0¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$20 @ 41.4¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$551 @ 57.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 22.8¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Won
Yes$642 @ 86.5¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 56.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
No$100 @ 78.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$950 @ 37.5¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Won
No$5.0k @ 87.2¢
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
Yes$19 @ 0.5¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
Yes$110 @ 55.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$2.5k @ 51.1¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$100 @ 78.9¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$1.6k @ 39.0¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 83.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$312 @ 52.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$900 @ 83.6¢
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?Won
No$1.7k @ 89.6¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$400 @ 68.0¢
Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs OsakaWon
Osaka$375 @ 58.3¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Won
Yes$13.9k @ 71.8¢
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 16.0¢
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionLost
Yes$101 @ 87.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$118 @ 29.9¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$152 @ 1.4¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$236 @ 59.0¢
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Lost
Yes$205 @ 41.1¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$881 @ 70.5¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$516 @ 23.9¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?Lost
Yes$100 @ 55.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$100 @ 51.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$666 @ 30.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$124 @ 30.1¢
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
Yes$21 @ 7.0¢
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?Won
No$30 @ 81.3¢
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?Won
No$91 @ 80.0¢
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$15 @ 27.3¢
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$50 @ 7.5¢
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$10 @ 8.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$1.6k @ 49.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$11.9k @ 83.3¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$15.0k @ 73.8¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$208 @ 36.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
No$1.6k @ 56.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$18.5k	71.6¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$9.3k	85.2¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$9.2k	77.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2.6k	35.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.5k	67.8¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2.3k	63.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2.2k	83.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.1k	52.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2.0k	68.5¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$2.0k	43.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.8k	81.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	77.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.6k	82.0¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	No	$1.5k	88.3¢
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	No	$1.4k	79.3¢
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	No	$1.2k	86.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	59.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.1k	73.2¢
Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	Politics	No	$970	61.5¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?	Politics	No	$922	57.4¢
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$910	81.0¢
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	No	$900	83.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$880	42.3¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$867	27.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	Yes	$836	55.6¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$806	73.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Politics	Yes	$783	49.4¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$777	25.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$768	26.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$671	54.3¢

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$18.5k @ 71.6¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$9.3k @ 85.2¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Geopolitics
No$9.2k @ 77.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$2.6k @ 35.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.5k @ 67.8¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$2.3k @ 63.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$2.2k @ 83.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2.1k @ 52.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$2.0k @ 68.5¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$2.0k @ 43.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.8k @ 81.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.7k @ 77.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Politics
No$1.6k @ 82.0¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
No$1.5k @ 88.3¢
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
No$1.4k @ 79.3¢
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
No$1.2k @ 86.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 59.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Geopolitics
Yes$1.1k @ 73.2¢
Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?Politics
No$970 @ 61.5¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?Politics
No$922 @ 57.4¢
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$910 @ 81.0¢
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
No$900 @ 83.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$880 @ 42.3¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$867 @ 27.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
Yes$836 @ 55.6¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$806 @ 73.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
Yes$783 @ 49.4¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Politics
Yes$777 @ 25.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
Yes$768 @ 26.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$671 @ 54.3¢