0xb4f2…e5fa

Specialization by sphere

• Other242 bets

  Hit rate

  55% (133/242)

  ROI

  -14%

• Politics82 bets

  Hit rate

  76% (62/82)

  ROI

  +20%

• Geopolitics30 bets

  Hit rate

  87% (26/30)

  ROI

  +49%

• Tech2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +36%

• Culture1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +13%

• Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
  No$3.0k @ 55.1¢
• Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?Won
  No$500 @ 72.4¢
• US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
  No$5.6k @ 80.0¢
• Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Won
  Yes$20 @ 85.0¢
• James Comey charges dropped by May 31?Won
  No$2.6k @ 86.1¢
• U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Lost
  No$14.4k @ 32.9¢
• Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
  No$99 @ 5.0¢
• Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Won
  Yes$2.3k @ 86.4¢
• Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?Won
  No$211 @ 71.0¢
• Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?Won
  No$1.2k @ 88.3¢
• Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?Lost
  No$23 @ 45.0¢
• Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
  No$20 @ 19.0¢
• Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
• Will State Street (STT) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
  No$5 @ 13.0¢
• Will Condoleezza Rice attend Dick Cheney's funeral?Lost
  Yes$18 @ 71.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$5.4k @ 77.0¢
• Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$4.5k @ 53.7¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$44 @ 81.8¢
• Will Charles Schwab (SCHW) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
  No$5 @ 7.0¢
• US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?Won
  Yes$1.1k @ 80.0¢
• Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
  No$5 @ 3.3¢
• Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 0.6¢
• Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?Won
  Yes$84 @ 84.0¢
• Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Lost
  No$1.3k @ 40.9¢
• Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026?Won
  No$134 @ 89.0¢
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
  No$7.0k @ 60.1¢
• Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Won
  No$1.2k @ 65.0¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$958 @ 89.5¢
• Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?Won
  No$1.7k @ 68.2¢
• Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Won
  Yes$7 @ 69.0¢
• JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Lost
  No$987 @ 82.3¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
  No$3.5k @ 55.6¢
• Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$1.3k @ 60.5¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
  No$10 @ 87.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
  Yes$4.3k @ 15.7¢
• Will Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
  No$5 @ 18.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$2.3k @ 87.6¢
• Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.4k @ 85.4¢
• Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Lost
  No$153 @ 17.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
  No$6.3k @ 76.7¢
• Will Nasdaq (NDAQ) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
  No$5 @ 9.0¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?Won
  No$2.6k @ 85.2¢
• Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
  No$73 @ 73.0¢
• France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
  No$1.9k @ 80.4¢
• Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
  No$282 @ 34.3¢
• Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$5.0k @ 67.8¢
• Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?Won
  No$147 @ 78.9¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?Won
  No$3.8k @ 73.2¢
• US/Israel strike Yemen by March 1?Won
  No$129 @ 83.0¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?Won
  No$7.0k @ 74.9¢

Current positions

• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$10.4k @ 65.2¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics
  Yes$8.7k @ 87.0¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
  No$7.5k @ 77.5¢
• Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
  No$7.4k @ 82.6¢
• Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
  No$7.1k @ 67.9¢
• Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31Politics
  No$5.1k @ 33.4¢
• Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$5.1k @ 82.4¢
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Politics
  No$4.7k @ 66.0¢
• Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
  No$4.7k @ 38.7¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$4.0k @ 18.5¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Business
  No$3.7k @ 65.8¢
• Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Politics
  No$3.6k @ 41.4¢
• Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
  No$3.6k @ 71.8¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
  No$2.7k @ 35.6¢
• Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
  No$2.7k @ 66.9¢
• Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
  No$2.6k @ 82.6¢
• Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
  No$2.5k @ 6.9¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
  No$2.5k @ 55.9¢
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
  No$1.5k @ 56.0¢
• Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$1.4k @ 65.1¢
• US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?Politics
  No$826 @ 74.7¢
• Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Politics
  No$725 @ 82.3¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolitics
  Yes$649 @ 66.9¢
• US x China tariff agreement by December 31?Politics
  No$595 @ 13.2¢
• Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Politics
  No$515 @ 77.6¢
• Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
  No$447 @ 74.1¢
• Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?Politics
  No$435 @ 87.0¢
• Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Politics
  No$420 @ 84.0¢
• Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Politics
  No$417 @ 65.9¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Politics
  No$376 @ 53.1¢