0xb4f2…e5fa

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb4f2592e67c333e73c923547cfe05e768180e5fa
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+16.5pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

68% @ 51.1¢

Brier

0.172

Resolved

2378

Avg size

$256

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	54% (136/253)	-17%	253
Politics	69% (78/113)	+16%	113
Geopolitics	83% (30/36)	+44%	36
Tech	100% (5/5)	+26%	5
Culture	100% (1/1)	+13%	1
Business	100% (1/1)	+79%	1

Other253 bets
Hit rate
54% (136/253)
ROI
-17%
Politics113 bets
Hit rate
69% (78/113)
ROI
+16%
Geopolitics36 bets
Hit rate
83% (30/36)
ROI
+44%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
100% (5/5)
ROI
+26%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+13%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+79%

Track record

61% hit · 251/409

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	$4.8k	44.5¢	Won
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	$2.1k	44.3¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$1.9k	61.0¢	Won
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?	No	$2.0k	74.5¢	Lost
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?	No	$29	2.0¢	Lost
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	No	$6.1k	35.5¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?	No	$3.1k	44.8¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?	No	$781	61.5¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	$6.9k	64.8¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.2k	46.4¢	Lost
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?	No	$2.1k	78.8¢	Lost
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	$547	85.6¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$298	93.9¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?	Yes	$5.6k	88.0¢	Lost
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	$1.0k	90.2¢	Lost
Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30?	No	$945	92.7¢	Lost
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?	No	$519	92.8¢	Lost
Turkey military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?	No	$1.3k	89.9¢	Won
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	$3.6k	72.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	$1.7k	69.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	$50	50.0¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	$2.7k	66.9¢	Won
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	No	$8.8k	92.0¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	$4.7k	66.0¢	Won
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	$1.1k	15.4¢	Lost
FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31?	No	$2.7k	95.4¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$10.4k	65.2¢	Won
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	$2.5k	55.9¢	Won
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	$86	86.0¢	Won
Ilhan Omar arrested by October 31, 2026?	No	$757	92.6¢	Won
Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31?	No	$3.5k	93.2¢	Won
Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$123	67.0¢	Won
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$5.6k	79.7¢	Won
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$5.9k	59.0¢	Lost
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	$221	41.1¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	$9.2k	89.8¢	Won
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	No	$3.0k	55.1¢	Won
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?	No	$500	72.4¢	Won
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$5.6k	80.0¢	Won
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	Yes	$20	85.0¢	Won
James Comey charges dropped by May 31?	No	$2.6k	86.1¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	No	$14.4k	32.9¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$99	5.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	Yes	$2.3k	86.4¢	Won
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?	No	$211	71.0¢	Won
Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?	No	$1.2k	88.3¢	Won
Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?	No	$23	45.0¢	Lost
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$20	19.0¢	Lost
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will State Street (STT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$5	13.0¢	Lost

Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Won
No$4.8k @ 44.5¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 44.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 61.0¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?Lost
No$2.0k @ 74.5¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?Lost
No$29 @ 2.0¢
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?Lost
No$6.1k @ 35.5¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?Lost
No$3.1k @ 44.8¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?Lost
No$781 @ 61.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Lost
No$6.9k @ 64.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.2k @ 46.4¢
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?Lost
No$2.1k @ 78.8¢
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$547 @ 85.6¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$298 @ 93.9¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?Lost
Yes$5.6k @ 88.0¢
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?Lost
No$1.0k @ 90.2¢
Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30?Lost
No$945 @ 92.7¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?Lost
No$519 @ 92.8¢
Turkey military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 89.9¢
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Lost
Yes$3.6k @ 72.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Lost
Yes$1.7k @ 69.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Lost
Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Won
No$2.7k @ 66.9¢
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?Won
No$8.8k @ 92.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Won
No$4.7k @ 66.0¢
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 15.4¢
FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31?Won
No$2.7k @ 95.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
No$10.4k @ 65.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Won
No$2.5k @ 55.9¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Won
No$86 @ 86.0¢
Ilhan Omar arrested by October 31, 2026?Won
No$757 @ 92.6¢
Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31?Won
No$3.5k @ 93.2¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
Yes$123 @ 67.0¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$5.6k @ 79.7¢
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$5.9k @ 59.0¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
No$221 @ 41.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Won
No$9.2k @ 89.8¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
No$3.0k @ 55.1¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?Won
No$500 @ 72.4¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$5.6k @ 80.0¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Won
Yes$20 @ 85.0¢
James Comey charges dropped by May 31?Won
No$2.6k @ 86.1¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Lost
No$14.4k @ 32.9¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$99 @ 5.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 86.4¢
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?Won
No$211 @ 71.0¢
Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?Won
No$1.2k @ 88.3¢
Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?Lost
No$23 @ 45.0¢
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
No$20 @ 19.0¢
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will State Street (STT) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$5 @ 13.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$17.9k	59.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$12.0k	59.4¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$10.3k	34.5¢
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	—	No	$10.3k	66.1¢
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$10.0k	87.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$7.3k	67.7¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	—	No	$7.0k	49.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	Politics	No	$6.9k	64.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	Business	No	$6.9k	79.5¢
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	—	No	$6.1k	35.5¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?	—	Yes	$5.6k	88.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$5.5k	57.2¢
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	Politics	No	$5.5k	73.0¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31	Politics	No	$5.1k	33.4¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$4.5k	53.7¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$4.3k	82.4¢
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Politics	Yes	$3.6k	72.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$3.6k	71.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Politics	No	$3.4k	55.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.2k	46.4¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	No	$3.1k	41.4¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?	—	No	$3.1k	44.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?	—	No	$3.0k	33.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Geopolitics	Yes	$3.0k	66.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	Politics	No	$2.9k	44.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.8k	18.5¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2.7k	74.3¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	—	No	$2.6k	34.1¢
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$2.6k	82.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Politics	Yes	$2.4k	67.0¢

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$17.9k @ 59.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$12.0k @ 59.4¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$10.3k @ 34.5¢
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?—
No$10.3k @ 66.1¢
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$10.0k @ 87.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$7.3k @ 67.7¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?—
No$7.0k @ 49.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Politics
No$6.9k @ 64.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Business
No$6.9k @ 79.5¢
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?—
No$6.1k @ 35.5¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?—
Yes$5.6k @ 88.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$5.5k @ 57.2¢
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?Politics
No$5.5k @ 73.0¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31Politics
No$5.1k @ 33.4¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Politics
No$4.5k @ 53.7¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
No$4.3k @ 82.4¢
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Politics
Yes$3.6k @ 72.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$3.6k @ 71.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Politics
No$3.4k @ 55.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$3.2k @ 46.4¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Politics
No$3.1k @ 41.4¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?—
No$3.1k @ 44.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?—
No$3.0k @ 33.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Geopolitics
Yes$3.0k @ 66.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Politics
No$2.9k @ 44.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.8k @ 18.5¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
Yes$2.7k @ 74.3¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?—
No$2.6k @ 34.1¢
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$2.6k @ 82.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Politics
Yes$2.4k @ 67.0¢