0xb4b2…23fd

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb4b2c182ca2916eebcb478442b1b17ccf67d23fd
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-8.5pp

ROI

+46%

Win rate

19% @ 27.8¢

Brier

0.128

Resolved

202

Avg size

$19

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	24% (11/46)	+105%	46
Politics	17% (1/6)	-49%	6
Tech	100% (1/1)	+22%	1
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other46 bets
Hit rate
24% (11/46)
ROI
+105%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-49%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+22%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

24% hit · 13/54

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	Yes	$10	4.8¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	Yes	$7	0.1¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	Yes	$2	10.4¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$21	3.0¢	Lost
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	$527	22.9¢	Lost
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$31	1.3¢	Lost
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$35	39.4¢	Won
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?	Yes	$39	29.0¢	Lost
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?	No	$6	1.0¢	Lost
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 21 2025?	Yes	$8	1.9¢	Lost
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?	Yes	$126	86.1¢	Won
Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	$202	44.9¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?	Yes	$12	12.4¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$932	67.0¢	Won
Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on November 21 2025?	Yes	$1	7.9¢	Lost
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?	Yes	$1	58.0¢	Lost
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?	No	$90	20.6¢	Lost
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?	Yes	$600	81.7¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$5	0.5¢	Lost
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?	Yes	$20	90.0¢	Won
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?	No	$148	13.0¢	Lost
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Yes	$6	2.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on August 17?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?	No	$3	6.0¢	Lost
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?	Yes	$3	6.0¢	Lost
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$17	0.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$26	29.0¢	Lost
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 20 2025?	Yes	$58	8.1¢	Lost
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?	Yes	$31	8.8¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown end November 14?	Yes	$8	3.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on July 3?	No	$8	88.0¢	Won
Michigan vs. Northwestern	Michigan	$9	45.0¢	Won
Michigan vs. Northwestern	Northwestern	$9	45.0¢	Lost
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 26 2025?	Yes	$5	1.0¢	Lost
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?	Yes	$1	27.4¢	Lost
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?	No	$6	6.5¢	Lost
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?	No	$139	89.0¢	Won
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?	No	$128	8.1¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?	Yes	$6	5.6¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?	Yes	$175	2.7¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown end November 13?	Yes	$139	4.7¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?	Yes	$10	1.1¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?	Yes	$10	9.5¢	Lost
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?	Yes	$3	9.0¢	Lost
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?	No	$1	82.0¢	Won
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?	Yes	$31	16.8¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$41	82.0¢	Won
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?	Yes	$26	7.0¢	Lost
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?	Yes	$1	25.0¢	Lost
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31?	No	$1	80.0¢	Won

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?Lost
Yes$10 @ 4.8¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.1¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Lost
Yes$2 @ 10.4¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$21 @ 3.0¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?Lost
Yes$527 @ 22.9¢
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$31 @ 1.3¢
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?Won
Yes$35 @ 39.4¢
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?Lost
Yes$39 @ 29.0¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?Lost
No$6 @ 1.0¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 21 2025?Lost
Yes$8 @ 1.9¢
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Won
Yes$126 @ 86.1¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Lost
No$202 @ 44.9¢
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?Lost
Yes$12 @ 12.4¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$932 @ 67.0¢
Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on November 21 2025?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.9¢
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 58.0¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?Lost
No$90 @ 20.6¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?Won
Yes$600 @ 81.7¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$5 @ 0.5¢
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?Won
Yes$20 @ 90.0¢
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?Lost
No$148 @ 13.0¢
Netanyahu out by March 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 2.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on August 17?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?Lost
No$3 @ 6.0¢
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$17 @ 0.8¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Lost
Yes$26 @ 29.0¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 20 2025?Lost
Yes$58 @ 8.1¢
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?Lost
Yes$31 @ 8.8¢
Will the government shutdown end November 14?Lost
Yes$8 @ 3.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on July 3?Won
No$8 @ 88.0¢
Michigan vs. NorthwesternWon
Michigan$9 @ 45.0¢
Michigan vs. NorthwesternLost
Northwestern$9 @ 45.0¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 26 2025?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?Lost
Yes$1 @ 27.4¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?Lost
No$6 @ 6.5¢
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?Won
No$139 @ 89.0¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?Lost
No$128 @ 8.1¢
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?Lost
Yes$6 @ 5.6¢
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?Lost
Yes$175 @ 2.7¢
Will the government shutdown end November 13?Won
Yes$139 @ 4.7¢
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.1¢
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.5¢
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?Lost
Yes$3 @ 9.0¢
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?Won
No$1 @ 82.0¢
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?Lost
Yes$31 @ 16.8¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$41 @ 82.0¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?Lost
Yes$26 @ 7.0¢
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?Lost
Yes$1 @ 25.0¢
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31?Won
No$1 @ 80.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$67	67.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$45	90.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$35	70.0¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$67 @ 67.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$45 @ 90.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$35 @ 70.0¢