0xb436…bb3c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb43699cbbb52520952833c10737bc43e7625bb3c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.3pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

56% @ 49.7¢

Brier

0.162

Resolved

478

Avg size

$316

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	68% (113/165)	+22%	165
Politics	33% (4/12)	-54%	12
Science	100% (3/3)	+8%	3
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+31%	1

Other165 bets
Hit rate
68% (113/165)
ROI
+22%
Politics12 bets
Hit rate
33% (4/12)
ROI
-54%
Science3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+8%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+31%

Track record

66% hit · 121/183

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Dolly?	No	$80	97.9¢	Won
Rams vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$500	56.0¢	Won
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?	No	$2	44.0¢	Lost
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?	Yes	$55	57.0¢	Won
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?	Yes	$40	50.0¢	Won
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 56%?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?	No	$108	78.5¢	Won
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?	Yes	$5.0k	45.1¢	Lost
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$60	14.5¢	Lost
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?	No	$119	79.5¢	Won
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?	Yes	$100	7.1¢	Lost
Will Rachel Maddow be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?	Yes	$3.0k	78.3¢	Won
Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 6–10 seconds?	Yes	$1.2k	83.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$400	74.0¢	Won
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?	No	$137	2.4¢	Lost
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 6, 2026?	Yes	$1000	25.7¢	Won
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?	No	$105	45.0¢	Won
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?	Yes	$148	17.7¢	Lost
Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?	No	$3	77.0¢	Won
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-30.5)	Howard Bison	$100	50.0¢	Won
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 17?	Yes	$2.8k	68.5¢	Won
Will Anderson Cooper be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?	Yes	$700	60.5¢	Won
Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	Yes	$8	6.0¢	Lost
Will Tom Hanks be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?	No	$416	87.1¢	Won
Will Chuck Schumer be named in newly released Epstein files?	Yes	$158	41.6¢	Won
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?	Yes	$6.7k	51.6¢	Won
Will anyone say "Six Seven" during Rick and Morty E4 S9?	No	$62	76.4¢	Won
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?	No	$65	17.4¢	Lost
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files?	No	$52	65.3¢	Won
Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?	Yes	$400	62.7¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$8	21.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	35.4¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22?	Yes	$3.4k	89.3¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$577	72.1¢	Won
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	$662	79.0¢	Won
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?	No	$98	20.4¢	Lost
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?	Yes	$774	35.3¢	Won
Will the US strike Syria next?	No	$30	44.3¢	Won
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?	Yes	$300	75.0¢	Won
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?	No	$392	87.0¢	Won
Will 160 to 189 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026?	No	$41	89.7¢	Won
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?	Yes	$150	51.0¢	Won
Rams vs. Panthers	Panthers	$550	54.7¢	Lost
Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files?	Yes	$339	68.6¢	Won
Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 21 and September 25, 2026?	No	$59	89.1¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$74	52.7¢	Lost
Patriots vs. Broncos	Patriots	$500	52.0¢	Won
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9?	Yes	$1.3k	28.2¢	Won
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	$374	35.6¢	Lost
Will JD Vance clap between 80–89 times during the State of the Union?	Yes	$204	84.5¢	Won

Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Dolly?Won
No$80 @ 97.9¢
Rams vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$500 @ 56.0¢
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?Lost
No$2 @ 44.0¢
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?Won
Yes$55 @ 57.0¢
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Won
Yes$40 @ 50.0¢
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 56%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?Won
No$108 @ 78.5¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?Lost
Yes$5.0k @ 45.1¢
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$60 @ 14.5¢
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?Won
No$119 @ 79.5¢
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?Lost
Yes$100 @ 7.1¢
Will Rachel Maddow be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Won
Yes$3.0k @ 78.3¢
Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 6–10 seconds?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 83.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$400 @ 74.0¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?Lost
No$137 @ 2.4¢
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 6, 2026?Won
Yes$1000 @ 25.7¢
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?Won
No$105 @ 45.0¢
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?Lost
Yes$148 @ 17.7¢
Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?Won
No$3 @ 77.0¢
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-30.5)Won
Howard Bison$100 @ 50.0¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 17?Won
Yes$2.8k @ 68.5¢
Will Anderson Cooper be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Won
Yes$700 @ 60.5¢
Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?Lost
Yes$8 @ 6.0¢
Will Tom Hanks be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?Won
No$416 @ 87.1¢
Will Chuck Schumer be named in newly released Epstein files?Won
Yes$158 @ 41.6¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?Won
Yes$6.7k @ 51.6¢
Will anyone say "Six Seven" during Rick and Morty E4 S9?Won
No$62 @ 76.4¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?Lost
No$65 @ 17.4¢
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files?Won
No$52 @ 65.3¢
Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Won
Yes$400 @ 62.7¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$8 @ 21.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 35.4¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22?Won
Yes$3.4k @ 89.3¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$577 @ 72.1¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
Yes$662 @ 79.0¢
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?Lost
No$98 @ 20.4¢
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?Won
Yes$774 @ 35.3¢
Will the US strike Syria next?Won
No$30 @ 44.3¢
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Won
Yes$300 @ 75.0¢
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Won
No$392 @ 87.0¢
Will 160 to 189 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026?Won
No$41 @ 89.7¢
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?Won
Yes$150 @ 51.0¢
Rams vs. PanthersLost
Panthers$550 @ 54.7¢
Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files?Won
Yes$339 @ 68.6¢
Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 21 and September 25, 2026?Won
No$59 @ 89.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$74 @ 52.7¢
Patriots vs. BroncosWon
Patriots$500 @ 52.0¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 28.2¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?Lost
No$374 @ 35.6¢
Will JD Vance clap between 80–89 times during the State of the Union?Won
Yes$204 @ 84.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?	Science	Yes	$546	89.0¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Culture	No	$330	66.0¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?	Culture	No	$167	38.9¢
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	Science	No	$112	67.6¢
Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$81	81.0¢
Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$27	93.0¢

Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?Science
Yes$546 @ 89.0¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?Culture
No$330 @ 66.0¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?Culture
No$167 @ 38.9¢
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?Science
No$112 @ 67.6¢
Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$81 @ 81.0¢
Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$27 @ 93.0¢