0xb37f…fdcf

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb37f3f453a78aebc6f39bf577f2d53708dadfdcf
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+5.9pp

ROI

+3%

Win rate

61% @ 54.7¢

Brier

0.164

Resolved

1982

Avg size

$13

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	64% (524/821)	+7%	821
Tech	33% (6/18)	-51%	18
Politics	36% (4/11)	-9%	11
Culture	67% (4/6)	+18%	6
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+12%	1

Other821 bets
Hit rate
64% (524/821)
ROI
+7%
Tech18 bets
Hit rate
33% (6/18)
ROI
-51%
Politics11 bets
Hit rate
36% (4/11)
ROI
-9%
Culture6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+18%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+12%

Track record

63% hit · 539/858

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump say "Iran" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?	No	$1	14.1¢	Lost
Will Trump post "Israel" on Truth Social this week?	No	$4	87.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	Yes	$35	74.2¢	Won
Will "Addiction" or "Drug" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)	Yes	$24	74.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Mental institution" in Corpus Christi on Friday?	No	$21	54.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" or "Midnight Hammer" during Women's History Month event?	No	$9	85.5¢	Won
Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 6)	Yes	$40	51.5¢	Won
Will Leavitt say "Commander-in-Chief" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	$7	34.8¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?	No	$20	70.0¢	Won
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?	No	$52	83.6¢	Won
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs	Karmine Corp	$5	55.0¢	Won
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs	Team Vitality	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	No	$54	73.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "India and Pakistan" or "India Pakistan" this week? (March 8)	No	$50	68.6¢	Lost
Clavicular unbanned from Kick by January 31?	No	$48	8.3¢	Lost
Will "Best friend" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	$29	82.5¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	No	$3	2.7¢	Lost
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" during his next video?	No	$26	64.0¢	Lost
Will Jensen Huang say "Anthropic" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?	No	$20	66.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 1)	No	$11	64.1¢	Won
Will "Monkey" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 20)	No	$1	45.0¢	Lost
Will "Monkey" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 20)	Yes	$2	19.0¢	Won
Will Leavitt say "Qatar" or "UAE" or "Oman" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	$15	63.8¢	Won
Will "Epstein" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)	No	$7	30.1¢	Won
Will "Apple Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?	Yes	$16	78.0¢	Lost
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?	No	$209	68.9¢	Won
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?	Yes	$160	7.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (February 8)	No	$20	35.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (February 8)	Yes	$31	75.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (February 8)	No	$31	30.1¢	Lost
Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 25+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	Yes	$11	70.0¢	Won
Will "Globalization" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	$24	80.0¢	Won
Will "Pam" or "Bondi" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (February 22)	No	$20	69.4¢	Won
Will "NASA" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 13)	No	$51	62.3¢	Won
Will MrBeast say "Dance" during his next video?	No	$39	75.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)	No	$93	40.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" this week?	No	$25	82.2¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	No	$40	86.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$20	7.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Anniversary" or "Independence" during Medal of Honor ceremony on March 2?	No	$6	63.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	Yes	$76	2.8¢	Lost
Will "Disease" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?	No	$3	38.0¢	Won
Will "Alignment" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	$12	75.0¢	Won
Will "Astronaut" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	$55	68.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$15	83.4¢	Won
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	No	$107	3.9¢	Lost
Will "State of the Union" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 8)	Yes	$4	21.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)	No	$23	75.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)	Yes	$17	83.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?	No	$40	87.5¢	Won

Will Trump say "Iran" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?Lost
No$1 @ 14.1¢
Will Trump post "Israel" on Truth Social this week?Won
No$4 @ 87.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Won
Yes$35 @ 74.2¢
Will "Addiction" or "Drug" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)Won
Yes$24 @ 74.8¢
Will Trump say "Mental institution" in Corpus Christi on Friday?Won
No$21 @ 54.0¢
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" or "Midnight Hammer" during Women's History Month event?Won
No$9 @ 85.5¢
Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 6)Won
Yes$40 @ 51.5¢
Will Leavitt say "Commander-in-Chief" during the next White House Press Briefing?Lost
No$7 @ 34.8¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?Won
No$20 @ 70.0¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?Won
No$52 @ 83.6¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Versus PlayoffsWon
Karmine Corp$5 @ 55.0¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Versus PlayoffsLost
Team Vitality$0 @ 0.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Won
No$54 @ 73.0¢
Will Trump say "India and Pakistan" or "India Pakistan" this week? (March 8)Lost
No$50 @ 68.6¢
Clavicular unbanned from Kick by January 31?Lost
No$48 @ 8.3¢
Will "Best friend" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Won
No$29 @ 82.5¢
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?Lost
No$3 @ 2.7¢
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" during his next video?Lost
No$26 @ 64.0¢
Will Jensen Huang say "Anthropic" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Lost
No$20 @ 66.8¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 1)Won
No$11 @ 64.1¢
Will "Monkey" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 20)Lost
No$1 @ 45.0¢
Will "Monkey" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 20)Won
Yes$2 @ 19.0¢
Will Leavitt say "Qatar" or "UAE" or "Oman" during the next White House Press Briefing?Won
No$15 @ 63.8¢
Will "Epstein" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)Won
No$7 @ 30.1¢
Will "Apple Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?Lost
Yes$16 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?Won
No$209 @ 68.9¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?Lost
Yes$160 @ 7.3¢
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (February 8)Lost
No$20 @ 35.2¢
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (February 8)Won
Yes$31 @ 75.8¢
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (February 8)Lost
No$31 @ 30.1¢
Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 25+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?Won
Yes$11 @ 70.0¢
Will "Globalization" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Won
No$24 @ 80.0¢
Will "Pam" or "Bondi" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (February 22)Won
No$20 @ 69.4¢
Will "NASA" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 13)Won
No$51 @ 62.3¢
Will MrBeast say "Dance" during his next video?Won
No$39 @ 75.8¢
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)Lost
No$93 @ 40.0¢
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" this week?Won
No$25 @ 82.2¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Won
No$40 @ 86.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 7.0¢
Will Trump say "Anniversary" or "Independence" during Medal of Honor ceremony on March 2?Won
No$6 @ 63.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?Lost
Yes$76 @ 2.8¢
Will "Disease" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week?Won
No$3 @ 38.0¢
Will "Alignment" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Won
No$12 @ 75.0¢
Will "Astronaut" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Won
No$55 @ 68.5¢
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
Yes$15 @ 83.4¢
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?Lost
No$107 @ 3.9¢
Will "State of the Union" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 8)Lost
Yes$4 @ 21.0¢
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)Won
No$23 @ 75.0¢
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)Lost
Yes$17 @ 83.0¢
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?Won
No$40 @ 87.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$161	64.2¢
Will Trump say "Discord" in September?	Politics	No	$95	95.0¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$83	27.7¢
Will Trump say "Boeing" in September?	Politics	No	$78	78.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	Other	Yes	$60	18.8¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$44	8.4¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$40	67.8¢
Will Trump post "Bitcoin," "Crypto," or "Cryptocurrency" on Truth Social this week?	Politics	No	$32	97.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$30	11.1¢
Will Elon post "ChatGPT" on X this week?	Tech	No	$26	97.8¢
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$25	1.6¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$25	16.0¢
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$24	3.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	No	$19	11.0¢
Will Elon post "Mexico" on X this week?	Tech	No	$17	94.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$9	34.0¢
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$9	2.9¢
Will Elon post "Bitcoin," "Crypto," or "Cryptocurrency" on X this week?	Tech	No	$6	97.0¢
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2	0.7¢
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	0.1¢

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$161 @ 64.2¢
Will Trump say "Discord" in September?Politics
No$95 @ 95.0¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$83 @ 27.7¢
Will Trump say "Boeing" in September?Politics
No$78 @ 78.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?Other
Yes$60 @ 18.8¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
Yes$44 @ 8.4¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$40 @ 67.8¢
Will Trump post "Bitcoin," "Crypto," or "Cryptocurrency" on Truth Social this week?Politics
No$32 @ 97.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$30 @ 11.1¢
Will Elon post "ChatGPT" on X this week?Tech
No$26 @ 97.8¢
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$25 @ 1.6¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
Yes$25 @ 16.0¢
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$24 @ 3.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
No$19 @ 11.0¢
Will Elon post "Mexico" on X this week?Tech
No$17 @ 94.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$9 @ 34.0¢
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$9 @ 2.9¢
Will Elon post "Bitcoin," "Crypto," or "Cryptocurrency" on X this week?Tech
No$6 @ 97.0¢
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$2 @ 0.7¢
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢