0xb37a…f1b1

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb37aa8834f9baefc6fb3312f59df8ddf0348f1b1
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.3pp

ROI

+30%

Win rate

56% @ 47.1¢

Brier

0.132

Resolved

2882

Avg size

$77

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	47% (132/283)	+19%	283
Politics	40% (52/130)	+32%	130
Geopolitics	72% (21/29)	+49%	29
Sports	11% (2/18)	+35%	18
Tech	38% (3/8)	+15%	8
Crypto	50% (2/4)	+36%	4
Culture	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Economy	100% (1/1)	+93%	1

Other283 bets
Hit rate
47% (132/283)
ROI
+19%
Politics130 bets
Hit rate
40% (52/130)
ROI
+32%
Geopolitics29 bets
Hit rate
72% (21/29)
ROI
+49%
Sports18 bets
Hit rate
11% (2/18)
ROI
+35%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
+15%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+36%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+93%

Track record

45% hit · 213/476

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 27?	Yes	$6	0.1¢	Lost
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings	Gujarat Titans	$65	43.7¢	Won
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	$18	3.7¢	Lost
Will Bernie Sanders's remarks not air?	Yes	$2	1.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?	Yes	$568	84.1¢	Won
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$153	34.0¢	Lost
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?	No	$139	50.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 7, 2026?	Yes	$38	86.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$145	69.0¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$825	88.7¢	Won
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	$10	3.1¢	Lost
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	$14	14.0¢	Lost
Will Noah rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?	Yes	$16	6.9¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$632	27.8¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?	Yes	$8	1.5¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$4.0k	77.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 2, 2026?	Yes	$7	86.0¢	Won
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$54	13.6¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?	No	$3	66.0¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	$5	0.5¢	Lost
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 2, 2026?	Yes	$73	80.4¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$383	62.6¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	$195	32.5¢	Lost
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?	Yes	$3	5.1¢	Lost
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?	Yes	$7	17.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$4	72.0¢	Won
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?	No	$45	58.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$114	57.0¢	Won
Will "USA" be said during the CS IEM Rio 2026 Grand Final?	No	$0	0.5¢	Lost
Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$13	21.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$861	22.6¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$481	48.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026?	Yes	$127	87.0¢	Won
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Yes	$51	5.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	No	$222	89.0¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	53.3¢	Won
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?	No	$5	30.0¢	Lost
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?	Yes	$14	5.5¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	$20	25.0¢	Lost
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?	Yes	$206	85.9¢	Won
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,050 (LOW) by April 30?	Yes	$64	86.8¢	Won
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans	Gujarat Titans	$177	59.0¢	Won
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$2.7k	78.4¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$708	68.1¢	Lost
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	$33	0.5¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$156	20.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Sacrifice" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$11	45.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$661	19.6¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2?	Yes	$210	58.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 10?	Yes	$2	24.0¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 27?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.1¢
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab KingsWon
Gujarat Titans$65 @ 43.7¢
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?Lost
Yes$18 @ 3.7¢
Will Bernie Sanders's remarks not air?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?Won
Yes$568 @ 84.1¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$153 @ 34.0¢
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Lost
No$139 @ 50.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 7, 2026?Won
Yes$38 @ 86.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$145 @ 69.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$825 @ 88.7¢
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.1¢
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?Lost
Yes$14 @ 14.0¢
Will Noah rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?Lost
Yes$16 @ 6.9¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$632 @ 27.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?Lost
Yes$8 @ 1.5¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$4.0k @ 77.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 2, 2026?Won
Yes$7 @ 86.0¢
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$54 @ 13.6¢
Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?Lost
No$3 @ 66.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.5¢
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 2, 2026?Won
Yes$73 @ 80.4¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$383 @ 62.6¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Lost
Yes$195 @ 32.5¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?Lost
Yes$3 @ 5.1¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?Lost
Yes$7 @ 17.0¢
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Address to the Nation?Won
Yes$4 @ 72.0¢
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Lost
No$45 @ 58.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$114 @ 57.0¢
Will "USA" be said during the CS IEM Rio 2026 Grand Final?Lost
No$0 @ 0.5¢
Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 21.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
Yes$861 @ 22.6¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$481 @ 48.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$127 @ 87.0¢
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?Lost
Yes$51 @ 5.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Won
No$222 @ 89.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 53.3¢
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?Lost
No$5 @ 30.0¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?Lost
Yes$14 @ 5.5¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
Yes$20 @ 25.0¢
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Won
Yes$206 @ 85.9¢
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,050 (LOW) by April 30?Won
Yes$64 @ 86.8¢
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat TitansWon
Gujarat Titans$177 @ 59.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Won
Yes$2.7k @ 78.4¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$708 @ 68.1¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Lost
Yes$33 @ 0.5¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$156 @ 20.1¢
Will Trump say "Sacrifice" during Address to the Nation?Lost
Yes$11 @ 45.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$661 @ 19.6¢
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2?Lost
Yes$210 @ 58.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 10?Lost
Yes$2 @ 24.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.3k	21.2¢
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Geopolitics	No	$1.7k	86.4¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$978	63.9¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$913	33.2¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$617	78.8¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$595	47.7¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$536	44.7¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$532	14.9¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$523	26.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$491	35.2¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$376	75.2¢
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$338	5.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Politics	No	$244	12.2¢
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs FlyQuest RED (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #2 Playoffs	Sports	FlyQuest RED	$221	17.5¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$173	48.0¢
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs FlyQuest RED - Map 2 Winner	Sports	FlyQuest RED	$130	13.0¢
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$129	83.7¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	No	$108	53.0¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Crypto	No	$105	73.6¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$100	38.8¢
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$100	18.2¢
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Politics	Yes	$57	48.0¢
Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$34	8.0¢
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Politics	Yes	$28	14.0¢
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$12	15.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$8	88.9¢
Will Iran target Syria by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$6	4.5¢
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	Tech	Yes	$3	2.0¢
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?	Tech	No	$1	94.6¢
Will Trump endorse Together in the 2026 Israeli Election?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.3¢

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2.3k @ 21.2¢
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? (copy)Geopolitics
No$1.7k @ 86.4¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$978 @ 63.9¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$913 @ 33.2¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$617 @ 78.8¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics
Yes$595 @ 47.7¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$536 @ 44.7¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$532 @ 14.9¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$523 @ 26.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$491 @ 35.2¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$376 @ 75.2¢
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$338 @ 5.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Politics
No$244 @ 12.2¢
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs FlyQuest RED (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #2 PlayoffsSports
FlyQuest RED$221 @ 17.5¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$173 @ 48.0¢
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs FlyQuest RED - Map 2 WinnerSports
FlyQuest RED$130 @ 13.0¢
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$129 @ 83.7¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
No$108 @ 53.0¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?Crypto
No$105 @ 73.6¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Politics
Yes$100 @ 38.8¢
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$100 @ 18.2¢
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Politics
Yes$57 @ 48.0¢
Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$34 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Politics
Yes$28 @ 14.0¢
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$12 @ 15.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?Geopolitics
No$8 @ 88.9¢
Will Iran target Syria by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$6 @ 4.5¢
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?Tech
Yes$3 @ 2.0¢
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?Tech
No$1 @ 94.6¢
Will Trump endorse Together in the 2026 Israeli Election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢