0xb2c5…6593

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb2c5788e296a76cdbacd7ab737390939021b6593
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+1.8pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

10% @ 8.0¢

Brier

0.058

Resolved

2318

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	18% (76/434)	+11%	434
Politics	20% (9/46)	-2%	46
Sports	17% (3/18)	-51%	18
Geopolitics	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other434 bets
Hit rate
18% (76/434)
ROI
+11%
Politics46 bets
Hit rate
20% (9/46)
ROI
-2%
Sports18 bets
Hit rate
17% (3/18)
ROI
-51%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

17% hit · 88/503

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	$3	36.0¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	$4	3.7¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	$9	25.2¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.5 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	$1	2.4¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 37.5 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	$0	1.3¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 36.8 on October 16, 2026?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.4 on October 16, 2026?	Yes	$3	25.0¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.4 and 37.5 on October 16, 2026?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.6 and 37.7 on October 16, 2026?	Yes	$0	5.0¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.2 and 37.3 on October 16, 2026?	Yes	$1	2.2¢	Lost
Trump approval Up or Down this week?	Down	$0	20.0¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be between 36.5 and 36.9 on October 9, 2026?	Yes	$2	4.0¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be between 36.0 and 36.4 on October 9, 2026?	Yes	$2	3.0¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 9, 2026?	No	$11	57.0¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on October 2, 2026?	Yes	$2	9.8¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be between 36.0 and 36.4 on October 2, 2026?	Yes	$1	1.8¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be between 36.5 and 36.9 on October 2, 2026?	Yes	$3	13.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 1, 2026?	Yes	$5	1.2¢	Lost
Will Rick Temple finish first in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary election?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?	Yes	$5	2.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump dance on June 5, 2026?	No	$11	17.6¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$3	4.5¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	Yes	$11	39.9¢	Won
Will Antonio Tiberi win the 2026 Tour De France?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	Yes	$4	67.9¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$3	4.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$4	42.0¢	Won
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on April 17, 2026?	Yes	$9	3.5¢	Lost
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be 3:00-4:59?	Yes	$5	0.7¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$1	3.6¢	Lost
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$7	18.1¢	Lost
Will Elisa win the Legend Trade Series?	No	$0	2.0¢	Won
Will Elisa win the Legend Trade Series?	Yes	$2	4.3¢	Lost
Will Aurora win BLAST Slam VII?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5	Over 5.5	$6	5.2¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$1	42.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$7	17.4¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$1	1.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during executive order signing today?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 4+ times during executive order signing today?	Yes	$0	9.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?	No	$1	1.1¢	Lost
Will Karoline Leavitt be between 30 and 35 minutes late to the next press briefing?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 37.5 on June 5, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$2	15.0¢	Won
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost

Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on October 23, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 36.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on October 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.7¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on October 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 25.2¢
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.5 on October 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.4¢
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 37.5 on October 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.3¢
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 36.8 on October 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.4 on October 16, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 25.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.4 and 37.5 on October 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.6 and 37.7 on October 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.2 and 37.3 on October 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.2¢
Trump approval Up or Down this week?Won
Down$0 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 36.5 and 36.9 on October 9, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 4.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 36.0 and 36.4 on October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 9, 2026?Won
No$11 @ 57.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on October 2, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 9.8¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 36.0 and 36.4 on October 2, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.8¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 36.5 and 36.9 on October 2, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 13.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 1, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.2¢
Will Rick Temple finish first in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.0¢
Will Donald Trump dance on June 5, 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 17.6¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$3 @ 4.5¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Won
Yes$11 @ 39.9¢
Will Antonio Tiberi win the 2026 Tour De France?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Won
Yes$4 @ 67.9¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$3 @ 4.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$4 @ 42.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on April 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 3.5¢
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be 3:00-4:59?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.7¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.6¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 18.1¢
Will Elisa win the Legend Trade Series?Won
No$0 @ 2.0¢
Will Elisa win the Legend Trade Series?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.3¢
Will Aurora win BLAST Slam VII?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5Lost
Over 5.5$6 @ 5.2¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 42.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$7 @ 17.4¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during executive order signing today?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 4+ times during executive order signing today?Won
Yes$0 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Lost
No$1 @ 1.1¢
Will Karoline Leavitt be between 30 and 35 minutes late to the next press briefing?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 37.5 on June 5, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
No$2 @ 15.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$195	13.1¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	Yes	$71	9.4¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$22	23.8¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$20	2.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$17	16.6¢
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	Politics	No	$16	47.6¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$12	29.5¢
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$8	26.4¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Sports	Yes	$5	3.4¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	10.6¢
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$5	17.1¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$4	15.7¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$4	2.9¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on October 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	18.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$2	9.5¢
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?	Politics	Yes	$2	2.0¢
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	5.8¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	11.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori + NZF?	Politics	Yes	$2	0.6¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$2	4.1¢
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2	15.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.4¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.4¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + NZF?	Politics	Yes	$1	1.0¢
Will Mark Kelly be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.1¢
Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?	Tech	Yes	$1	6.9¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on October 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	4.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + NZF + Maori?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.2¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + Maori?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.3¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + Maori?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.3¢

Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
Yes$195 @ 13.1¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
Yes$71 @ 9.4¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$22 @ 23.8¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$20 @ 2.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$17 @ 16.6¢
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?Politics
No$16 @ 47.6¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?Politics
Yes$12 @ 29.5¢
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$8 @ 26.4¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Sports
Yes$5 @ 3.4¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 10.6¢
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$5 @ 17.1¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$4 @ 15.7¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$4 @ 2.9¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on October 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 18.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$2 @ 9.5¢
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?Politics
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 5.8¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 11.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori + NZF?Politics
Yes$2 @ 0.6¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$2 @ 4.1¢
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + NZF?Politics
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Mark Kelly be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.1¢
Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?Tech
Yes$1 @ 6.9¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on October 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + NZF + Maori?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + Maori?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + Maori?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢