0xb1a1…d308

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb1a190be02cafacb6c30b98beb621503d5e2d308
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.3pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

77% @ 68.2¢

Brier

0.140

Resolved

763

Avg size

$79

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	76% (118/155)	+21%	155
Politics	82% (50/61)	+9%	61
Sports	71% (10/14)	+14%	14
Geopolitics	40% (4/10)	+11%	10
Crypto	100% (8/8)	+39%	8
Tech	100% (7/7)	+8%	7
Business	100% (6/6)	+23%	6
Culture	100% (3/3)	+24%	3
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other155 bets
Hit rate
76% (118/155)
ROI
+21%
Politics61 bets
Hit rate
82% (50/61)
ROI
+9%
Sports14 bets
Hit rate
71% (10/14)
ROI
+14%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
40% (4/10)
ROI
+11%
Crypto8 bets
Hit rate
100% (8/8)
ROI
+39%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
100% (7/7)
ROI
+8%
Business6 bets
Hit rate
100% (6/6)
ROI
+23%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+24%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

77% hit · 206/266

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	$26	70.1¢	Won
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	$3.5k	87.9¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Tennessee governor race in 2026?	Yes	$248	95.4¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?	Yes	$359	94.2¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?	Yes	$353	94.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Hawaii governor race in 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	95.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	$44	74.0¢	Won
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	$330	94.4¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Wyoming governor race in 2026?	Yes	$79	95.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Connecticut governor race in 2026?	Yes	$602	95.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?	Yes	$622	94.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Maryland governor race in 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	95.5¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Illinois governor race in 2026?	Yes	$239	95.0¢	Won
Cornell President out by October 31?	No	$535	93.9¢	Won
Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	$1.0k	93.8¢	Won
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	$631	42.3¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?	No	$808	92.5¢	Won
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	$502	93.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?	No	$153	95.7¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in October?	No	$2.4k	96.6¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?	No	$41	93.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in October?	No	$57	95.0¢	Won
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $368 Week of October 26 2026?	No	$29	97.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	$101	48.0¢	Lost
Will Hyperliquid dip to $75 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$47	87.6¢	Won
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	Yes	$10	36.0¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$4	56.0¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$225	87.5¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$15	67.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$105	80.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in November?	No	$12	51.0¢	Lost
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	No	$58	6.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	70.7¢	Won
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Argentina	$201	88.5¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$2	20.0¢	Lost
Will sports prediction markets be banned in any U.S. state in 2025?	Yes	$5	12.0¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$664	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?	Yes	$67	84.0¢	Won
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Yes	$41	32.0¢	Lost
Will Bernie say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the GOTV rally with AOC and Zohran on October 26?	No	$61	80.9¢	Won
Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?	No	$37	78.4¢	Won
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by January 30, 2026?	No	$29	83.5¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$47	22.0¢	Won
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$8	19.5¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$510	82.8¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$1.2k	65.6¢	Won
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Yes	$20	28.0¢	Won
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	$33	88.6¢	Won
Will there be a safety car during the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?	Yes	$25	74.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	$5.2k	87.8¢	Won

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Won
Yes$26 @ 70.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseWon
No$3.5k @ 87.9¢
Will the Republicans win the Tennessee governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$248 @ 95.4¢
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$359 @ 94.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$353 @ 94.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Hawaii governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 95.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
No$44 @ 74.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Won
No$330 @ 94.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Wyoming governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$79 @ 95.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Connecticut governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$602 @ 95.0¢
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$622 @ 94.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maryland governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 95.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Illinois governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$239 @ 95.0¢
Cornell President out by October 31?Won
No$535 @ 93.9¢
Iran leadership change by October 31?Won
No$1.0k @ 93.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Won
No$631 @ 42.3¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?Won
No$808 @ 92.5¢
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?Won
No$502 @ 93.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?Won
No$153 @ 95.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in October?Won
No$2.4k @ 96.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?Won
No$41 @ 93.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in October?Won
No$57 @ 95.0¢
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $368 Week of October 26 2026?Won
No$29 @ 97.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
No$101 @ 48.0¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $75 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$47 @ 87.6¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 36.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$4 @ 56.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$225 @ 87.5¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$15 @ 67.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$105 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in November?Lost
No$12 @ 51.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Lost
No$58 @ 6.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 70.7¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$201 @ 88.5¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.0¢
Will sports prediction markets be banned in any U.S. state in 2025?Lost
Yes$5 @ 12.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$664 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?Won
Yes$67 @ 84.0¢
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?Lost
Yes$41 @ 32.0¢
Will Bernie say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the GOTV rally with AOC and Zohran on October 26?Won
No$61 @ 80.9¢
Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Won
No$37 @ 78.4¢
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by January 30, 2026?Won
No$29 @ 83.5¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$47 @ 22.0¢
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$8 @ 19.5¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$510 @ 82.8¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 65.6¢
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?Won
Yes$20 @ 28.0¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Won
No$33 @ 88.6¢
Will there be a safety car during the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$25 @ 74.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Won
No$5.2k @ 87.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$5.9k	89.8¢
GTA VI released by November 30?	Culture	Yes	$5.8k	94.8¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$5.1k	93.6¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$3.2k	95.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.7k	78.0¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Tech	No	$2.7k	86.1¢
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.5k	92.5¢
Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	Tech	No	$2.1k	93.7¢
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?	Economy	No	$2.1k	87.4¢
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.0k	93.5¢
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.0k	92.2¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Tech	Anthropic	$2.0k	96.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.8k	94.0¢
Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.6k	92.5¢
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027?	Economy	No	$1.1k	92.2¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Politics	No	$1.0k	92.0¢
Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Culture	Yes	$977	93.1¢
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$966	96.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$943	89.6¢
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$920	96.0¢
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$837	93.0¢
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$806	82.9¢
Greenland snap election called by December 31?	Politics	No	$678	94.8¢
Tennessee makes electric chair execution default in 2026?	Politics	No	$532	91.7¢
Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027?	Economy	No	$503	95.4¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$467	95.1¢
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$467	94.0¢
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?	Economy	No	$414	95.1¢
Will Nicki Minaj be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	No	$400	96.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maryland governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$374	95.5¢

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$5.9k @ 89.8¢
GTA VI released by November 30?Culture
Yes$5.8k @ 94.8¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$5.1k @ 93.6¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$3.2k @ 95.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
No$2.7k @ 78.0¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech
No$2.7k @ 86.1¢
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$2.5k @ 92.5¢
Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?Tech
No$2.1k @ 93.7¢
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?Economy
No$2.1k @ 87.4¢
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$2.0k @ 93.5¢
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?Politics
No$2.0k @ 92.2¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Tech
Anthropic$2.0k @ 96.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$1.8k @ 94.0¢
Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$1.6k @ 92.5¢
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027?Economy
No$1.1k @ 92.2¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?Politics
No$1.0k @ 92.0¢
Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Culture
Yes$977 @ 93.1¢
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Sports
Yes$966 @ 96.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
Yes$943 @ 89.6¢
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$920 @ 96.0¢
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$837 @ 93.0¢
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$806 @ 82.9¢
Greenland snap election called by December 31?Politics
No$678 @ 94.8¢
Tennessee makes electric chair execution default in 2026?Politics
No$532 @ 91.7¢
Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027?Economy
No$503 @ 95.4¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$467 @ 95.1¢
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$467 @ 94.0¢
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?Economy
No$414 @ 95.1¢
Will Nicki Minaj be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
No$400 @ 96.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maryland governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$374 @ 95.5¢