0xb1a1…d308

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb1a190be02cafacb6c30b98beb621503d5e2d308
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.6pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

80% @ 69.3¢

Brier

0.110

Resolved

134

Avg size

$159

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	70% (19/27)	+17%	27
Politics	86% (12/14)	+10%	14
Sports	69% (9/13)	+16%	13
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Tech	100% (1/1)	+14%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+14%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+63%	1

Other27 bets
Hit rate
70% (19/27)
ROI
+17%
Politics14 bets
Hit rate
86% (12/14)
ROI
+10%
Sports13 bets
Hit rate
69% (9/13)
ROI
+16%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+14%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+14%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+63%

Track record

73% hit · 43/59

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$4	56.0¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$225	87.5¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$15	67.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$105	80.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$694	76.5¢	Won
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Argentina	$201	88.5¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$664	89.0¢	Won
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Yes	$41	32.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$47	22.0¢	Won
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Yes	$20	28.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$13	12.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$79	68.7¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$37	32.9¢	Lost
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	$1.5k	85.0¢	Won
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	$1.0k	86.6¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$24	24.2¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$150	88.0¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$133	88.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	Yes	$94	61.3¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	Yes	$134	46.3¢	Lost
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Yes	$20	26.0¢	Lost
Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$679	61.2¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$4	64.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$208	86.5¢	Won
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$282	86.3¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$1.0k	87.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	Yes	$459	67.3¢	Won
No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	$35	88.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?	No	$100	83.8¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$806	77.5¢	Won
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?	Yes	$688	74.0¢	Won
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?	Yes	$10	43.0¢	Won
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	$34	85.0¢	Won
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$15	2.6¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance	Argentina	$900	85.9¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?	Yes	$18	40.1¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September?	Yes	$209	81.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$1.0k	65.6¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	No	$50	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$5.0k	83.8¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?	Yes	$63	22.1¢	Lost
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$304	86.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$2.2k	88.8¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?	No	$16	82.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	$37	37.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	$19	32.0¢	Lost
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$201	86.1¢	Won
Will France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	No	$307	85.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?	Yes	$388	66.4¢	Won
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	$70	88.7¢	Won

NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$4 @ 56.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$225 @ 87.5¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$15 @ 67.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$105 @ 80.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$694 @ 76.5¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$201 @ 88.5¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$664 @ 89.0¢
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?Lost
Yes$41 @ 32.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$47 @ 22.0¢
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?Won
Yes$20 @ 28.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$13 @ 12.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$79 @ 68.7¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$37 @ 32.9¢
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
No$1.5k @ 85.0¢
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
No$1.0k @ 86.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Lost
Yes$24 @ 24.2¢
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$150 @ 88.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$133 @ 88.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Won
Yes$94 @ 61.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Lost
Yes$134 @ 46.3¢
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?Lost
Yes$20 @ 26.0¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$679 @ 61.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 64.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$208 @ 86.5¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Won
Yes$282 @ 86.3¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$1.0k @ 87.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Won
Yes$459 @ 67.3¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Won
Yes$35 @ 88.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?Lost
No$100 @ 83.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$806 @ 77.5¢
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?Won
Yes$688 @ 74.0¢
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?Won
Yes$10 @ 43.0¢
Will England win on 2026-06-27?Won
Yes$34 @ 85.0¢
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$15 @ 2.6¢
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$900 @ 85.9¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?Won
Yes$18 @ 40.1¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September?Won
Yes$209 @ 81.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$1.0k @ 65.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Won
No$50 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5.0k @ 83.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?Lost
Yes$63 @ 22.1¢
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$304 @ 86.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$2.2k @ 88.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Won
No$16 @ 82.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Lost
Yes$37 @ 37.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Lost
No$19 @ 32.0¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$201 @ 86.1¢
Will France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?Won
No$307 @ 85.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?Won
Yes$388 @ 66.4¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?Won
Yes$70 @ 88.7¢

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