0xaf40…5662

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other28 bets

  Hit rate

  86% (24/28)

  ROI

  +25%

• Politics15 bets

  Hit rate

  93% (14/15)

  ROI

  +8%

• Geopolitics12 bets

  Hit rate

  83% (10/12)

  ROI

  +6%

• Tech7 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (7/7)

  ROI

  +7%

• Economy1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
  No$9 @ 86.0¢
• Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$27 @ 74.6¢
• Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$42 @ 84.0¢
• France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
  No$46 @ 77.5¢
• Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
  No$9 @ 22.0¢
• Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
  Yes$10 @ 75.0¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Won
  No$2 @ 57.0¢
• US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?Won
  No$10 @ 68.0¢
• Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?Won
  No$9 @ 51.3¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
  No$38 @ 88.3¢
• Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?Won
  Yes$9 @ 86.0¢
• Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
  No$3 @ 3.5¢
• US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?Lost
  No$7 @ 6.7¢
• Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15?Won
  No$20 @ 83.3¢
• Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?Won
  No$20 @ 69.0¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 46.0¢
• Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?Won
  Yes$13 @ 80.0¢
• US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?Won
  Yes$60 @ 85.9¢
• US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?Won
  No$15 @ 64.7¢
• Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?Won
  No$20 @ 60.1¢
• Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?Won
  Yes$4 @ 87.2¢
• US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?Won
  No$20 @ 81.0¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
  No$4 @ 70.0¢
• Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$30 @ 71.8¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Won
  No$4 @ 74.0¢
• Will Trump visit China by June 30?Won
  Yes$9 @ 89.0¢
• Iran leadership change by April 30?Won
  No$14 @ 61.4¢
• Will another country strike Iran by March 7?Won
  No$11 @ 76.0¢
• US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14?Won
  No$5 @ 89.0¢
• Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$4 @ 89.0¢
• Will another country strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$4 @ 36.0¢
• Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?Won
  No$4 @ 86.6¢
• Iran leadership change by March 31?Won
  No$20 @ 80.9¢
• Will Trump visit China by May 31?Won
  Yes$8 @ 80.5¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 11.9¢
• Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?Lost
  No$14 @ 70.3¢
• DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?Won
  Yes$4 @ 83.0¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?Won
  No$12 @ 80.0¢
• Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 7?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 62.0¢
• Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Won
  Yes$3 @ 85.0¢
• Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Won
  Yes$10 @ 97.0¢
• Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?Won
  Yes$38 @ 90.4¢
• Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Won
  Yes$4 @ 88.0¢
• Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?Won
  No$16 @ 89.1¢
• Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? Won
  No$10 @ 95.2¢
• Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?Won
  No$263 @ 93.4¢
• Will Meta acquire TikTok?Won
  No$93 @ 97.1¢
• Will Walmart acquire TikTok?Won
  No$14 @ 93.5¢
• Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?Won
  No$11 @ 96.4¢
• Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?Won
  No$5 @ 95.9¢

Current positions

• Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? Science
  No$2.6k @ 94.4¢
• ByteDance IPO before 2027?Business
  No$990 @ 94.1¢
• Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?Business
  No$655 @ 93.6¢
• Tesla Roadster delivered by December 31, 2026?Tech
  No$474 @ 91.2¢
• Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$386 @ 92.5¢
• Will Argentina dollarize by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$342 @ 95.3¢
• Rippling IPO before 2027?Business
  No$325 @ 92.0¢
• US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?Politics
  No$324 @ 92.9¢
• Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?Tech
  No$324 @ 92.8¢
• Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
  No$312 @ 89.6¢
• Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$255 @ 95.0¢
• T-Mobile US & SpaceX merger/acquisition announced in 2026?Tech
  No$249 @ 94.8¢
• Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve by December 31?Politics
  No$236 @ 89.6¢
• Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?Tech
  No$224 @ 92.1¢
• Will Trump nationalize elections?Politics
  No$204 @ 91.1¢
• Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$194 @ 94.2¢
• Will Cuba recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$185 @ 91.1¢
• Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
  No$149 @ 92.7¢
• Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?Economy
  No$133 @ 94.0¢
• Anduril IPO before 2027?Business
  No$113 @ 93.0¢
• Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$105 @ 94.2¢
• Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$89 @ 94.5¢
• Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$87 @ 87.0¢
• Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$69 @ 92.9¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$64 @ 93.4¢
• Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?Tech
  No$62 @ 94.0¢
• Turkish troops enter Yemen by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$57 @ 96.0¢
• Will Iraq recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$56 @ 95.1¢
• Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?Tech
  No$56 @ 95.0¢
• Ledger IPO before 2027?Business
  No$47 @ 91.2¢