← Smart money
0xaed4…7f61
SharpEdge
+8.6pp
ROI
+350%
Win rate
16% @ 7.0¢
Brier
0.102
Resolved
77
Avg size
$38
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 33% (2/6) | +500% | 6 |
| Politics | 25% (1/4) | -73% | 4 |
- Other6 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (2/6)
- ROI
- +500%
- Politics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 25% (1/4)
- ROI
- -73%
Track record
30% hit · 3/10| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | Yes | $90 | 4.1¢ | Lost |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | $123 | 7.0¢ | Lost |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | No | $10 | 0.1¢ | Lost |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | $7 | 1.0¢ | Lost |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | $1.1k | 33.5¢ | Won |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $236 | 4.0¢ | Lost |
| Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $33 | 27.4¢ | Won |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | $16 | 0.1¢ | Lost |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $918 | 9.3¢ | Won |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $81 | 2.4¢ | Lost |
- Yes$90 @ 4.1¢
- Yes$123 @ 7.0¢
- No$10 @ 0.1¢
- No$7 @ 1.0¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 33.5¢
- Yes$236 @ 4.0¢
- Yes$33 @ 27.4¢
- No$16 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$918 @ 9.3¢
- Yes$81 @ 2.4¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $953 | 29.3¢ |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Politics | Yes | $1 | 13.0¢ |
| Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? | Politics | Yes | $1 | 23.0¢ |
| Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? | Politics | Yes | $1 | 7.0¢ |
- Yes$953 @ 29.3¢
- Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 23.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 7.0¢