← Smart money
0xaea4…8b40
ProfitableEdge
+51.1pp
ROI
+185%
Win rate
84% @ 32.7¢
Brier
0.446
Resolved
117
Avg size
$72
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 18% (2/11) | +174% | 11 |
| Politics | 100% (1/1) | +28% | 1 |
| Other | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +53% | 1 |
- Sports11 bets
- Hit rate
- 18% (2/11)
- ROI
- +174%
- Politics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +28%
- Other1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +53%
Track record
29% hit · 4/14| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | $11 | 10.7¢ | Lost |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | $34 | 3.4¢ | Lost |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | $3 | 3.4¢ | Lost |
| Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? | No | $1.6k | 98.9¢ | Won |
| Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? | Yes | $296 | 57.4¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | No | $156 | 78.0¢ | Won |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | $886 | 61.3¢ | Lost |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | $2.0k | 65.3¢ | Won |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | $5.2k | 24.6¢ | Won |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | $8 | 15.2¢ | Lost |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | $3 | 3.2¢ | Lost |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | $210 | 25.1¢ | Lost |
| Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Yes | $7 | 1.4¢ | Lost |
| Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Yes | $17 | 3.6¢ | Lost |
- Yes$11 @ 10.7¢
- Yes$34 @ 3.4¢
- Yes$3 @ 3.4¢
- No$1.6k @ 98.9¢
- Yes$296 @ 57.4¢
- No$156 @ 78.0¢
- Yes$886 @ 61.3¢
- No$2.0k @ 65.3¢
- Yes$5.2k @ 24.6¢
- Yes$8 @ 15.2¢
- Yes$3 @ 3.2¢
- Yes$210 @ 25.1¢
- Yes$7 @ 1.4¢
- Yes$17 @ 3.6¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Sports | Yes | $17 | 3.6¢ |
| Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Sports | Yes | $7 | 1.4¢ |
- Yes$17 @ 3.6¢
- Yes$7 @ 1.4¢