0xae8c…b99b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xae8c7706771353860e57875fc91baf877fb6b99b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.6pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

40% @ 33.5¢

Brier

0.210

Resolved

630

Avg size

$20

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	39% (55/141)	+10%	141
Sports	25% (4/16)	-38%	16
Politics	50% (1/2)	-68%	2
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other141 bets
Hit rate
39% (55/141)
ROI
+10%
Sports16 bets
Hit rate
25% (4/16)
ROI
-38%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-68%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

38% hit · 60/160

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Spread: Henan FC (-1.5)	Henan FC	$37	30.0¢	Lost
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-08-02?	No	$29	58.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Chengdu Rongcheng FC 1 - 2 Beijing Guoan FC?	Yes	$4	8.0¢	Lost
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw?	Yes	$11	29.0¢	Lost
Will Henan FC win on 2026-07-31?	Yes	$111	51.5¢	Lost
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5	Under	$64	38.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?	Yes	$30	16.0¢	Lost
Will the final be ESP vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$39	53.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	$6	53.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland?	Yes	$9	9.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia?	Yes	$17	15.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia?	Yes	$13	10.6¢	Lost
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome?	Yes	$26	35.0¢	Lost
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Switzerland	$105	57.0¢	Lost
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Netherlands	$168	56.0¢	Lost
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	Netherlands	$33	33.0¢	Lost
Will Jordan Henderson be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	No	$36	18.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	$5	41.0¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$16	95.0¢	Won
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)	Switzerland	$33	31.0¢	Lost
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-10?	Yes	$99	45.0¢	Won
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)	Aston Villa FC	$31	31.0¢	Won
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy: O/U 1.5	Under	$32	19.8¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	No	$623	46.5¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	Yes	$162	32.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?	Yes	$13	1.8¢	Lost
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$239	87.0¢	Won
Spread: Spurs (-12.5)	Spurs	$2	50.0¢	Won
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)	Spurs	$110	61.0¢	Won
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-03-21?	Yes	$164	51.3¢	Lost
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?	Yes	$102	22.7¢	Lost
Will I Like It be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?	Yes	$172	55.8¢	Lost
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22?	Yes	$40	50.0¢	Lost
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?	Yes	$143	65.1¢	Won
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$99	48.0¢	Lost
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	No	$18	36.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 30, 2026?	No	$16	7.4¢	Lost
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01?	Yes	$26	63.0¢	Won
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5	Over	$51	48.0¢	Won
Will MagicLab have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala?	No	$10	1.5¢	Lost
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$42	42.2¢	Lost
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5	Under	$3	8.0¢	Lost
Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5	Over	$198	50.8¢	Won
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	No	$110	30.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$62	10.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Midterm Election" during Iowa speech?	Yes	$22	27.0¢	Lost
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$15	5.9¢	Lost
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-04-04?	No	$15	21.4¢	Lost
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	Yes	$135	30.0¢	Lost
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$51	1.0¢	Lost

Spread: Henan FC (-1.5)Lost
Henan FC$37 @ 30.0¢
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-08-02?Lost
No$29 @ 58.0¢
Exact Score: Chengdu Rongcheng FC 1 - 2 Beijing Guoan FC?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.0¢
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw?Lost
Yes$11 @ 29.0¢
Will Henan FC win on 2026-07-31?Lost
Yes$111 @ 51.5¢
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$64 @ 38.0¢
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?Lost
Yes$30 @ 16.0¢
Will the final be ESP vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$39 @ 53.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ETLost
Down$6 @ 53.0¢
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland?Lost
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia?Lost
Yes$17 @ 15.0¢
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia?Lost
Yes$13 @ 10.6¢
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome?Lost
Yes$26 @ 35.0¢
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)Lost
Switzerland$105 @ 57.0¢
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)Lost
Netherlands$168 @ 56.0¢
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)Lost
Netherlands$33 @ 33.0¢
Will Jordan Henderson be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad list?Lost
No$36 @ 18.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ETLost
Up$5 @ 41.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
Yes$16 @ 95.0¢
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)Lost
Switzerland$33 @ 31.0¢
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-10?Won
Yes$99 @ 45.0¢
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Won
Aston Villa FC$31 @ 31.0¢
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy: O/U 1.5Lost
Under$32 @ 19.8¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Lost
No$623 @ 46.5¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Won
Yes$162 @ 32.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 1.8¢
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$239 @ 87.0¢
Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Won
Spurs$2 @ 50.0¢
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Won
Spurs$110 @ 61.0¢
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-03-21?Lost
Yes$164 @ 51.3¢
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?Lost
Yes$102 @ 22.7¢
Will I Like It be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Lost
Yes$172 @ 55.8¢
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22?Lost
Yes$40 @ 50.0¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Won
Yes$143 @ 65.1¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$99 @ 48.0¢
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?Won
No$18 @ 36.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 30, 2026?Lost
No$16 @ 7.4¢
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01?Won
Yes$26 @ 63.0¢
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5Won
Over$51 @ 48.0¢
Will MagicLab have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala?Lost
No$10 @ 1.5¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$42 @ 42.2¢
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5Lost
Under$3 @ 8.0¢
Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5Won
Over$198 @ 50.8¢
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?Lost
No$110 @ 30.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$62 @ 10.3¢
Will Trump say "Midterm Election" during Iowa speech?Lost
Yes$22 @ 27.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$15 @ 5.9¢
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-04-04?Lost
No$15 @ 21.4¢
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?Lost
Yes$135 @ 30.0¢
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$51 @ 1.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Sports	Netherlands	$168	56.0¢
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-09-05?	—	Yes	$128	43.0¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Sports	Yes	$124	62.0¢
Will Henan FC win on 2026-07-31?	—	Yes	$111	51.5¢
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Sports	Switzerland	$105	57.0¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Sports	Yes	$98	48.0¢
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Sports	Belgium	$73	37.0¢
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-05?	—	Yes	$71	37.7¢
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5	—	Under	$64	38.0¢
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	—	FC Bayern München	$50	41.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?	—	No	$41	41.0¢
Will the final be ESP vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	—	Yes	$39	53.0¢
Spread: Henan FC (-1.5)	—	Henan FC	$37	30.0¢
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-08-08?	—	Yes	$37	30.0¢
Will Jordan Henderson be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Politics	No	$36	18.0¢
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	Sports	Netherlands	$33	33.0¢
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?	—	Yes	$30	16.0¢
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-08-02?	—	No	$29	58.0¢
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome?	Sports	Yes	$26	35.0¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-08?	—	No	$20	39.0¢
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia?	—	Yes	$17	15.0¢
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia?	—	Yes	$13	10.6¢
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw?	—	Yes	$11	29.0¢
AEK vs. LASK Linz: O/U 2.5	—	Over	$11	54.0¢
Spread: Beijing Guoan (-1.5)	—	FC Pohang Steelers	$10	20.0¢
AEK vs. LASK Linz: O/U 3.5	—	Over	$10	32.0¢
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland?	Sports	Yes	$9	9.0¢
Knicks vs. Spurs	Sports	Spurs	$7	83.0¢
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC end in a draw?	—	Yes	$7	22.0¢
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5	—	Over	$6	64.0¢

Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)Sports
Netherlands$168 @ 56.0¢
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-09-05?—
Yes$128 @ 43.0¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Sports
Yes$124 @ 62.0¢
Will Henan FC win on 2026-07-31?—
Yes$111 @ 51.5¢
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)Sports
Switzerland$105 @ 57.0¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Sports
Yes$98 @ 48.0¢
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)Sports
Belgium$73 @ 37.0¢
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-05?—
Yes$71 @ 37.7¢
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5—
Under$64 @ 38.0¢
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)—
FC Bayern München$50 @ 41.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?—
No$41 @ 41.0¢
Will the final be ESP vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?—
Yes$39 @ 53.0¢
Spread: Henan FC (-1.5)—
Henan FC$37 @ 30.0¢
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-08-08?—
Yes$37 @ 30.0¢
Will Jordan Henderson be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad list?Politics
No$36 @ 18.0¢
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)Sports
Netherlands$33 @ 33.0¢
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?—
Yes$30 @ 16.0¢
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-08-02?—
No$29 @ 58.0¢
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome?Sports
Yes$26 @ 35.0¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-08?—
No$20 @ 39.0¢
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia?—
Yes$17 @ 15.0¢
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia?—
Yes$13 @ 10.6¢
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw?—
Yes$11 @ 29.0¢
AEK vs. LASK Linz: O/U 2.5—
Over$11 @ 54.0¢
Spread: Beijing Guoan (-1.5)—
FC Pohang Steelers$10 @ 20.0¢
AEK vs. LASK Linz: O/U 3.5—
Over$10 @ 32.0¢
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland?Sports
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
Knicks vs. SpursSports
Spurs$7 @ 83.0¢
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC end in a draw?—
Yes$7 @ 22.0¢
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5—
Over$6 @ 64.0¢