0xae78…9275

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xae78c00dd692e6cb1285b1915dd4a48766df9275
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.8pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

87% @ 72.3¢

Brier

0.076

Resolved

Avg size

$16

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	91% (21/23)	+21%	23
Geopolitics	94% (17/18)	+10%	18
Other	78% (7/9)	+22%	9

Politics23 bets
Hit rate
91% (21/23)
ROI
+21%
Geopolitics18 bets
Hit rate
94% (17/18)
ROI
+10%
Other9 bets
Hit rate
78% (7/9)
ROI
+22%

Track record

90% hit · 45/50

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by March 31?	No	$21	87.3¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$67	55.5¢	Won
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?	No	$10	36.4¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	$5	41.0¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	No	$47	58.8¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	No	$30	82.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31?	No	$15	76.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	$19	88.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Toretske by March 31, 2026?	No	$10	71.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	$51	43.4¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30?	No	$30	86.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Stinky by March 31?	No	$10	84.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	$31	88.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	No	$25	82.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by April 30?	No	$24	82.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by April 30, 2026?	No	$20	88.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?	No	$17	81.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$87	84.6¢	Won
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	$93	44.8¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by April 30, 2026?	No	$25	82.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$15	66.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?	No	$22	79.5¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	$20	68.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	$30	81.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by March 31?	No	$8	89.9¢	Won
Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31?	No	$28	83.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	No	$10	81.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026?	No	$12	74.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30?	No	$41	67.4¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026?	No	$47	87.7¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	$116	64.6¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by September 30, 2026?	No	$13	81.6¢	Won
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by March 31?	Yes	$5	14.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$15	72.6¢	Won
Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31?	No	$35	78.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	$51	81.8¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?	No	$20	82.1¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30?	No	$50	88.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by May 31?	No	$19	89.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	No	$53	83.3¢	Won
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?	No	$13	72.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31?	No	$15	78.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?	No	$66	71.2¢	Won
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by March 31?	No	$13	73.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31?	No	$33	76.8¢	Won
Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?	No	$13	6.0¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by April 30?	No	$29	88.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?	No	$28	84.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by April 30?	No	$24	87.1¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?	No	$17	87.1¢	Won

Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by March 31?Won
No$21 @ 87.3¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$67 @ 55.5¢
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 36.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Lost
Yes$5 @ 41.0¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Won
No$47 @ 58.8¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Won
No$30 @ 82.0¢
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31?Won
No$15 @ 76.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?Won
No$19 @ 88.0¢
Will Russia capture Toretske by March 31, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 71.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Lost
No$51 @ 43.4¢
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30?Won
No$30 @ 86.0¢
Will Russia enter Stinky by March 31?Won
No$10 @ 84.0¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?Won
No$31 @ 88.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?Won
No$25 @ 82.0¢
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by April 30?Won
No$24 @ 82.0¢
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by April 30, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 88.0¢
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?Won
No$17 @ 81.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$87 @ 84.6¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$93 @ 44.8¢
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by April 30, 2026?Won
No$25 @ 82.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$15 @ 66.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?Won
No$22 @ 79.5¢
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 68.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?Won
No$30 @ 81.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by March 31?Won
No$8 @ 89.9¢
Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31?Won
No$28 @ 83.0¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?Won
No$10 @ 81.0¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026?Won
No$12 @ 74.0¢
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30?Won
No$41 @ 67.4¢
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026?Won
No$47 @ 87.7¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?Won
No$116 @ 64.6¢
Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by September 30, 2026?Won
No$13 @ 81.6¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by March 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 14.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
No$15 @ 72.6¢
Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31?Won
No$35 @ 78.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?Won
No$51 @ 81.8¢
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?Won
No$20 @ 82.1¢
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30?Won
No$50 @ 88.0¢
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by May 31?Won
No$19 @ 89.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Won
No$53 @ 83.3¢
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?Won
No$13 @ 72.0¢
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31?Won
No$15 @ 78.0¢
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?Won
No$66 @ 71.2¢
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by March 31?Won
No$13 @ 73.0¢
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31?Won
No$33 @ 76.8¢
Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?Lost
No$13 @ 6.0¢
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by April 30?Won
No$29 @ 88.0¢
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?Won
No$28 @ 84.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by April 30?Won
No$24 @ 87.1¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?Won
No$17 @ 87.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$90	78.3¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$71	93.0¢
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$50	66.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$47	63.0¢
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$38	61.0¢
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$30	88.7¢
Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$30	76.0¢
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$25	63.2¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$21	95.9¢
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$20	54.0¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$90 @ 78.3¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$71 @ 93.0¢
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$50 @ 66.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$47 @ 63.0¢
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$38 @ 61.0¢
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$30 @ 88.7¢
Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31?Geopolitics
No$30 @ 76.0¢
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31?Geopolitics
No$25 @ 63.2¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$21 @ 95.9¢
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$20 @ 54.0¢