0xadaf…f9f2

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xadaf1c42e0a88e2942e7adfe559e30c1796bf9f2
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.5pp

ROI

+56%

Win rate

16% @ 14.0¢

Brier

0.079

Resolved

4056

Avg size

$21

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	32% (108/336)	+63%	336
Politics	43% (40/92)	+29%	92
Sports	17% (1/6)	-81%	6
Crypto	25% (1/4)	-48%	4
Tech	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+70%	1

Other336 bets
Hit rate
32% (108/336)
ROI
+63%
Politics92 bets
Hit rate
43% (40/92)
ROI
+29%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-81%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-48%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+70%

Track record

34% hit · 151/442

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will BNB dip to $600 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	21.0¢	Won
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	Yes	$247	9.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "Nuclear" during Merz events on June 5?	No	$6	21.0¢	Lost
Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Trump meets with Carney before June?	No	$38	10.0¢	Lost
Will JD Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during remarks in Wisconsin on August 28?	Yes	$12	3.5¢	Lost
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$90	89.8¢	Won
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	Yes	$551	7.4¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August?	Yes	$515	27.4¢	Lost
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Real Madrid (To Advance)	Real Madrid	$5	5.0¢	Lost
Will Anca Alexandrescu get less than 5% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?	No	$740	88.0¢	Won
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%?	Yes	$6	1.1¢	Lost
Will anyone say "India" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call?	Yes	$51	51.0¢	Won
Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be less than 34%?	No	$462	18.4¢	Lost
Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be less than 34%?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Won
Will Bernie Sanders say "Putin" during "Fighting Oligarchy" speech on September 1?	Yes	$42	15.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week?	Yes	$135	34.6¢	Lost
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 11.5–12m?	Yes	$576	30.4¢	Won
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?	No	$87	26.4¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July?	Yes	$70	7.0¢	Lost
Will another candidate win the Bucharest mayoral election?	No	$421	84.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Bukele visit on April 14?	Yes	$9	36.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Netanyahu" or "Bibi" during his May 13 interview?	Yes	$16	8.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ timesduring meeting with Netanyahu?	Yes	$78	39.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May?	No	$62	31.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Big beautiful deal" this week?	No	$3	61.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Big beautiful deal" this week?	Yes	$114	35.9¢	Lost
Will JD Vance say "Radical Left" at AmericaFest events on December 21?	Yes	$45	45.0¢	Lost
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	$1.9k	70.3¢	Won
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$619	6.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?	Yes	$46	46.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?	Yes	$6	1.1¢	Lost
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?	Yes	$10	3.2¢	Lost
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be between 27–30%?	Yes	$22	5.0¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?	Yes	$29	60.0¢	Won
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$88	5.7¢	Lost
Will there be 160,000,000-165,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
US-EU trade deal before June?	No	$66	66.0¢	Won
Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025?	Yes	$37	3.7¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$46	44.9¢	Lost
Will Rutte say "Slovakia" during NATO Public Forum Address on June 24?	No	$2	62.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$69	70.0¢	Won
Will U.S. tourism decline in April?	No	$7	1.3¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	19.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week?	Yes	$86	43.0¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on June 13?	No	$72	72.0¢	Won
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?	No	$22	26.0¢	Lost
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?	No	$80	80.0¢	Won
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?	Yes	$42	0.3¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?	No	$4	88.0¢	Won

Will BNB dip to $600 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 21.0¢
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?Won
Yes$247 @ 9.1¢
Will Donald Trump say "Nuclear" during Merz events on June 5?Lost
No$6 @ 21.0¢
Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Trump meets with Carney before June?Lost
No$38 @ 10.0¢
Will JD Vance say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during remarks in Wisconsin on August 28?Lost
Yes$12 @ 3.5¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$90 @ 89.8¢
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?Lost
Yes$551 @ 7.4¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August?Lost
Yes$515 @ 27.4¢
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Real Madrid (To Advance)Lost
Real Madrid$5 @ 5.0¢
Will Anca Alexandrescu get less than 5% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?Won
No$740 @ 88.0¢
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.1¢
Will anyone say "India" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call?Won
Yes$51 @ 51.0¢
Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be less than 34%?Lost
No$462 @ 18.4¢
Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be less than 34%?Won
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Putin" during "Fighting Oligarchy" speech on September 1?Won
Yes$42 @ 15.6¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week?Lost
Yes$135 @ 34.6¢
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 11.5–12m?Won
Yes$576 @ 30.4¢
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?Lost
No$87 @ 26.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July?Lost
Yes$70 @ 7.0¢
Will another candidate win the Bucharest mayoral election?Won
No$421 @ 84.2¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Bukele visit on April 14?Lost
Yes$9 @ 36.0¢
Will Trump say "Netanyahu" or "Bibi" during his May 13 interview?Lost
Yes$16 @ 8.1¢
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ timesduring meeting with Netanyahu?Lost
Yes$78 @ 39.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May?Won
No$62 @ 31.0¢
Will Trump say "Big beautiful deal" this week?Won
No$3 @ 61.0¢
Will Trump say "Big beautiful deal" this week?Lost
Yes$114 @ 35.9¢
Will JD Vance say "Radical Left" at AmericaFest events on December 21?Lost
Yes$45 @ 45.0¢
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Won
No$1.9k @ 70.3¢
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$619 @ 6.5¢
Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?Lost
Yes$46 @ 46.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.1¢
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.2¢
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be between 27–30%?Lost
Yes$22 @ 5.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?Won
Yes$29 @ 60.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$88 @ 5.7¢
Will there be 160,000,000-165,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
US-EU trade deal before June?Won
No$66 @ 66.0¢
Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025?Lost
Yes$37 @ 3.7¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$46 @ 44.9¢
Will Rutte say "Slovakia" during NATO Public Forum Address on June 24?Won
No$2 @ 62.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
No$69 @ 70.0¢
Will U.S. tourism decline in April?Won
No$7 @ 1.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 19.2¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week?Won
Yes$86 @ 43.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on June 13?Won
No$72 @ 72.0¢
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during December press conference?Lost
No$22 @ 26.0¢
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?Won
No$80 @ 80.0¢
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?Lost
Yes$42 @ 0.3¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?Won
No$4 @ 88.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$756	14.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$515	23.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$178	89.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 34% in 2026?	Politics	No	$168	84.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 50% in 2026?	Politics	No	$114	97.8¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Politics	No	$88	75.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$75	60.0¢
Will Carles Puigdemont be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Politics	Yes	$72	1.7¢
Will María Jesús Montero be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Politics	Yes	$72	1.7¢
Will Cuca Gamarra be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Politics	Yes	$72	1.7¢
Will Miguel Tellado be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Politics	Yes	$72	1.7¢
Will Óscar Puente be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Politics	Yes	$72	1.7¢
Will Ester Muñoz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Politics	Yes	$72	1.7¢
Will Pepa Millán be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Politics	Yes	$72	1.7¢
Will Borja Sémper be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Politics	Yes	$72	1.7¢
Will Aitor Esteban be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Politics	Yes	$72	1.7¢
Will Ernest Urtasun be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Politics	Yes	$72	1.7¢
Will Salvador Illa be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Politics	Yes	$72	1.7¢
Will Félix Bolaños be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Politics	Yes	$72	1.7¢
Will Juanma Moreno be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Politics	Yes	$72	1.7¢
Will Emiliano García-Page be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Politics	Yes	$72	1.7¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 49% in 2026?	Politics	No	$58	97.5¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Politics	No	$55	55.0¢
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$43	3.6¢
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$43	3.6¢
Will BNB dip to $500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$30	11.5¢
Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$28	2.8¢
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$28	2.8¢
Will Anna-Karin Hatt be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$28	2.8¢
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$28	2.8¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$756 @ 14.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$515 @ 23.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$178 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 34% in 2026?Politics
No$168 @ 84.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 50% in 2026?Politics
No$114 @ 97.8¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?Politics
No$88 @ 75.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$75 @ 60.0¢
Will Carles Puigdemont be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Politics
Yes$72 @ 1.7¢
Will María Jesús Montero be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Politics
Yes$72 @ 1.7¢
Will Cuca Gamarra be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Politics
Yes$72 @ 1.7¢
Will Miguel Tellado be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Politics
Yes$72 @ 1.7¢
Will Óscar Puente be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Politics
Yes$72 @ 1.7¢
Will Ester Muñoz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Politics
Yes$72 @ 1.7¢
Will Pepa Millán be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Politics
Yes$72 @ 1.7¢
Will Borja Sémper be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Politics
Yes$72 @ 1.7¢
Will Aitor Esteban be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Politics
Yes$72 @ 1.7¢
Will Ernest Urtasun be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Politics
Yes$72 @ 1.7¢
Will Salvador Illa be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Politics
Yes$72 @ 1.7¢
Will Félix Bolaños be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Politics
Yes$72 @ 1.7¢
Will Juanma Moreno be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Politics
Yes$72 @ 1.7¢
Will Emiliano García-Page be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Politics
Yes$72 @ 1.7¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 49% in 2026?Politics
No$58 @ 97.5¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Politics
No$55 @ 55.0¢
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$43 @ 3.6¢
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$43 @ 3.6¢
Will BNB dip to $500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$30 @ 11.5¢
Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$28 @ 2.8¢
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$28 @ 2.8¢
Will Anna-Karin Hatt be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$28 @ 2.8¢
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$28 @ 2.8¢