0xad85…c6bd

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xad85c2f3942561afa448cbbd5811a5f7e2e3c6bd
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.4pp

ROI

+149%

Win rate

37% @ 23.7¢

Brier

0.202

Resolved

199

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	16% (4/25)	+176%	25
Sports	33% (3/9)	+6%	9
Science	0% (0/7)	-100%	7
Politics	17% (1/6)	-66%	6
Culture	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Tech	100% (1/1)	+233%	1
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other25 bets
Hit rate
16% (4/25)
ROI
+176%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
33% (3/9)
ROI
+6%
Science7 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/7)
ROI
-100%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-66%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+233%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

17% hit · 9/52

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	$550	73.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 13?	Yes	$5	6.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$15	12.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 10?	Yes	$1	6.7¢	Lost
Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm	Arthur Rinderknech	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	Tundra Esports	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 2?	Yes	$1	6.7¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$7	30.0¢	Won
Will FUT Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026?	Yes	$1	1.5¢	Lost
Will Jonathan McColumn be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9?	Yes	$1	1.3¢	Lost
Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	$1	7.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner	Top Esports	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	$10	3.6¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	Yes	$8	84.0¢	Won
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Medvedev (+1.5)	Sinner	$6	6.2¢	Lost
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$1	8.6¢	Lost
Game Handicap: the bug (-1.5) vs NA, we'd win (+1.5)	NA, wed win	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	$100	75.8¢	Won
Will "Titaníque" win Best Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards?	Yes	$1	5.6¢	Lost
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$50	89.5¢	Won
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular Season	Ozarox Esports	$2	0.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 6?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 3?	Yes	$1	6.4¢	Lost
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner	Hanwha Life Esports	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 5?	Yes	$1	15.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	$50	62.4¢	Lost
Will "Scary Movie" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	$1	2.8¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 12?	Yes	$0	0.9¢	Lost
Will David Njoku play for Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2026-27?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	No	$5	88.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 14?	Yes	$8	3.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 13?	Yes	$5	4.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	$11	7.4¢	Lost
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5	Over	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	$1	2.0¢	Lost
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	$8	6.7¢	Lost
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$4	3.4¢	Lost
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	No	$18	74.0¢	Won
Paris: Kimberly Birrell vs Katie Boulter	Kimberly Birrell	$0	6.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the third highest private market valuation on June 30?	No	$10	9.0¢	Lost
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Parma: Alycia Parks vs Susan Bandecchi	Alycia Parks	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 4?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$15	50.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June 3?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4?	Yes	$1	3.8¢	Lost

Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Won
Yes$550 @ 73.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 13?Lost
Yes$5 @ 6.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 12.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 10?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.7¢
Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin DammLost
Arthur Rinderknech$0 @ 0.1¢
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group BLost
Tundra Esports$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 2?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.7¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$7 @ 30.0¢
Will FUT Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢
Will Jonathan McColumn be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.3¢
Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 WinnerLost
Top Esports$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 84.0¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Medvedev (+1.5)Lost
Sinner$6 @ 6.2¢
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.6¢
Game Handicap: the bug (-1.5) vs NA, we'd win (+1.5)Lost
NA, wed win$2 @ 1.0¢
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Won
Yes$100 @ 75.8¢
Will "Titaníque" win Best Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.6¢
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$50 @ 89.5¢
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular SeasonWon
Ozarox Esports$2 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 6?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 3?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.4¢
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 WinnerLost
Hanwha Life Esports$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 5?Lost
Yes$1 @ 15.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 62.4¢
Will "Scary Movie" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.8¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 12?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.9¢
Will David Njoku play for Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?Won
No$5 @ 88.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 14?Lost
Yes$8 @ 3.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 13?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 7.4¢
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Lost
Over$1 @ 0.1¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Lost
No$1 @ 2.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$8 @ 6.7¢
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$4 @ 3.4¢
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?Won
No$18 @ 74.0¢
Paris: Kimberly Birrell vs Katie BoulterLost
Kimberly Birrell$0 @ 6.0¢
Will OpenAI have the third highest private market valuation on June 30?Lost
No$10 @ 9.0¢
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Parma: Alycia Parks vs Susan BandecchiLost
Alycia Parks$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 4?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Lost
Yes$15 @ 50.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June 3?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$6	14.6¢
Will 3+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$2	10.0¢

Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?Crypto
No$6 @ 14.6¢
Will 3+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$2 @ 10.0¢