← Smart money
0xad82…421a
SharpEdge
+28.2pp
ROI
+6%
Win rate
76% @ 47.6¢
Brier
0.195
Resolved
33
Avg size
$79
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 50% (3/6) | +11% | 6 |
| Other | 50% (1/2) | -70% | 2 |
| Culture | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Politics6 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (3/6)
- ROI
- +11%
- Other2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -70%
- Culture1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
44% hit · 4/9| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | $231 | 44.0¢ | Won |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | No | $400 | 64.0¢ | Won |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | $99 | 34.2¢ | Lost |
| Trump renames AI by October 31? | No | $123 | 37.5¢ | Lost |
| Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | No | $1.2k | 76.0¢ | Won |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | No | $270 | 23.2¢ | Lost |
| Will Sinners win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes? | No | $19 | 54.0¢ | Won |
| Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | Yes | $243 | 21.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Noah Wyle be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? | No | $19 | 4.4¢ | Lost |
- No$231 @ 44.0¢
- No$400 @ 64.0¢
- Yes$99 @ 34.2¢
- No$123 @ 37.5¢
- No$1.2k @ 76.0¢
- No$270 @ 23.2¢
- No$19 @ 54.0¢
- Yes$243 @ 21.0¢
- No$19 @ 4.4¢
Recent trades
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