0xad5a…e224

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xad5a38a6549b4b1e35b8c4cfef1b5242088de224
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.6pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

47% @ 42.3¢

Brier

0.165

Resolved

710

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (151/301)	-6%	301
Politics	52% (43/82)	+27%	82
Sports	52% (22/42)	+16%	42
Geopolitics	28% (5/18)	-56%	18
Crypto	40% (2/5)	-18%	5
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+42%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other301 bets
Hit rate
50% (151/301)
ROI
-6%
Politics82 bets
Hit rate
52% (43/82)
ROI
+27%
Sports42 bets
Hit rate
52% (22/42)
ROI
+16%
Geopolitics18 bets
Hit rate
28% (5/18)
ROI
-56%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-18%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+42%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

50% hit · 224/451

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
England vs. Spain: O/U 5.5	Over	$12	41.3¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	$17	51.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	$15	55.0¢	Lost
Ethereum Up or Down - September 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	$14	53.0¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$3	38.3¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	5.9¢	Lost
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 2.5	Over	$2	49.0¢	Lost
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 2.5	Under	$3	50.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 21?	Yes	$3	32.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" this week?	Yes	$3	68.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" this week?	Yes	$1	18.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Uber" this week?	Yes	$2	15.0¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$3	45.0¢	Lost
Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference?	Yes	$4	75.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	89.0¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	$6	81.0¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$3	25.5¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Mark Rutte by June 30?	Yes	$4	72.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$13	84.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	8.7¢	Lost
Ahn vs. Bernales: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5	Under	$1	4.9¢	Won
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	No	$2	33.9¢	Lost
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Ciryl Gane	$3	50.0¢	Won
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Spain vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match?	No	$4	36.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$13	13.5¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	83.0¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Prelims)	Michael Aswell	$8	78.0¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$1	43.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on July 21?	Yes	$3	31.0¢	Lost
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?	Yes	$7	69.5¢	Won
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$5	30.1¢	Lost
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Yes	$15	72.3¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)	Luana Santos	$2	49.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in July 2026?	Yes	$4	81.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Knicks vs. Spurs	Spurs	$3	67.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$5	69.0¢	Won
Map Handicap: RE (-1.5) vs Entropy (+1.5)	Entropy	$3	60.0¢	Lost
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)	Robert Whittaker	$8	54.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	$8	75.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "UFC" this week?	Yes	$4	71.0¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	No	$5	87.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$1	0.9¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in July?	Yes	$8	82.5¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Prelims)	Alessandro Costa	$12	80.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during Michigan remarks?	Yes	$3	19.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$1	2.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Michigan remarks?	Yes	$4	78.0¢	Won

England vs. Spain: O/U 5.5Lost
Over$12 @ 41.3¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ETLost
Down$17 @ 51.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ETLost
Up$15 @ 55.0¢
Ethereum Up or Down - September 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ETWon
Down$14 @ 53.0¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 38.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.9¢
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$2 @ 49.0¢
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 2.5Won
Under$3 @ 50.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$1 @ 14.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 21?Won
Yes$3 @ 32.0¢
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" this week?Lost
Yes$3 @ 68.0¢
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" this week?Lost
Yes$1 @ 18.0¢
Will Trump say "Uber" this week?Lost
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 45.0¢
Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference?Won
Yes$4 @ 75.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 89.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
No$6 @ 81.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$3 @ 25.5¢
Will Trump praise Mark Rutte by June 30?Won
Yes$4 @ 72.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$13 @ 84.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3 @ 8.7¢
Ahn vs. Bernales: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Won
Under$1 @ 4.9¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Lost
No$2 @ 33.9¢
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Won
Ciryl Gane$3 @ 50.0¢
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Spain vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match?Won
No$4 @ 36.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 13.5¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 83.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Prelims)Lost
Michael Aswell$8 @ 78.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$1 @ 43.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on July 21?Lost
Yes$3 @ 31.0¢
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Won
Yes$7 @ 69.5¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$5 @ 30.1¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Won
Yes$15 @ 72.3¢
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)Won
Luana Santos$2 @ 49.0¢
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in July 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 81.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$2 @ 0.2¢
Knicks vs. SpursLost
Spurs$3 @ 67.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$5 @ 69.0¢
Map Handicap: RE (-1.5) vs Entropy (+1.5)Lost
Entropy$3 @ 60.0¢
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)Won
Robert Whittaker$8 @ 54.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Won
Yes$8 @ 75.3¢
Will Trump say "UFC" this week?Won
Yes$4 @ 71.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 87.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in July?Won
Yes$8 @ 82.5¢
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Prelims)Won
Alessandro Costa$12 @ 80.3¢
Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during Michigan remarks?Won
Yes$3 @ 19.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.6¢
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Michigan remarks?Won
Yes$4 @ 78.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Crypto	Down	$17	51.0¢
England vs. Spain: O/U 5.5	Sports	Over	$12	41.3¢
Counter-Strike: BORRACHEIROS vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Group C	—	DFX Peek	$1	76.0¢

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ETCrypto
Down$17 @ 51.0¢
England vs. Spain: O/U 5.5Sports
Over$12 @ 41.3¢
Counter-Strike: BORRACHEIROS vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Group C—
DFX Peek$1 @ 76.0¢