← Smart money
0xacea…8b97
ProfitableEdge
+5.0pp
ROI
+5%
Win rate
39% @ 34.0¢
Brier
0.190
Resolved
1403
Avg size
$89
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 48% (31/64) | +18% | 64 |
| Politics | 50% (14/28) | +2% | 28 |
| Sports | 48% (12/25) | +8% | 25 |
| Geopolitics | 14% (1/7) | -100% | 7 |
| Tech | 33% (1/3) | +39% | 3 |
| Crypto | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Other64 bets
- Hit rate
- 48% (31/64)
- ROI
- +18%
- Politics28 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (14/28)
- ROI
- +2%
- Sports25 bets
- Hit rate
- 48% (12/25)
- ROI
- +8%
- Geopolitics7 bets
- Hit rate
- 14% (1/7)
- ROI
- -100%
- Tech3 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (1/3)
- ROI
- +39%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
46% hit · 59/128- Over$3.8k @ 35.0¢
- Yes$90 @ 3.2¢
- Portugal$1.4k @ 68.0¢
- Argentina$1.3k @ 75.2¢
- No$5.3k @ 66.6¢
- No$980 @ 49.0¢
- Over$3 @ 47.0¢
- Yes$494 @ 70.6¢
- No$4.1k @ 54.3¢
- Argentina$2.7k @ 69.8¢
- Under$690 @ 69.0¢
- Yes$635 @ 33.2¢
- Yes$840 @ 21.0¢
- No$211 @ 70.3¢
- Morocco$321 @ 64.3¢
- Yes$719 @ 37.9¢
- Morocco$2.5k @ 41.0¢
- Yes$36 @ 15.0¢
- Under$184 @ 18.4¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 33.0¢
- Yes$840 @ 28.0¢
- No$1.2k @ 60.3¢
- No$10 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$680 @ 68.0¢
- No$5.5k @ 36.7¢
- Canada$1.6k @ 71.8¢
- No$1.4k @ 68.0¢
- No$3.6k @ 51.3¢
- Yes$310 @ 31.0¢
- No$710 @ 35.5¢
- Yes$915 @ 61.0¢
- No$129 @ 64.5¢
- England$1.9k @ 62.0¢
- Under$92 @ 23.0¢
- No$255 @ 81.5¢
- No$168 @ 28.0¢
- Yes$93 @ 27.4¢
- Yes$101 @ 5.8¢
- Yes$315 @ 63.0¢
- No$1.7k @ 58.5¢
- Yes$221 @ 29.1¢
- Yes$487 @ 23.8¢
- Yes$200 @ 40.0¢
- No$460 @ 46.0¢
- Spain$1.5k @ 76.0¢
- No$140 @ 28.5¢
- Yes$2.7k @ 13.5¢
- No$6.1k @ 34.2¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 16.8¢
- Yes$2.2k @ 74.4¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | — | Yes | $6.8k | 65.2¢ |
| Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government? | Politics | Yes | $1.3k | 95.5¢ |
| Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | Politics | Yes | $1.2k | 46.4¢ |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Politics | Yes | $660 | 13.2¢ |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $574 | 31.9¢ |
| Will BSW be in the next Berlin state government? | Politics | No | $337 | 98.7¢ |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Geopolitics | No | $328 | 54.7¢ |
| Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government? | Politics | Yes | $314 | 96.4¢ |
| Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government? | Politics | Yes | $117 | 60.5¢ |
| Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $51 | 25.5¢ |
| Turkish Constitutional Referendum announced in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $8 | 20.3¢ |
- Yes$6.8k @ 65.2¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 95.5¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 46.4¢
- Yes$660 @ 13.2¢
- Yes$574 @ 31.9¢
- No$337 @ 98.7¢
- No$328 @ 54.7¢
- Yes$314 @ 96.4¢
- Yes$117 @ 60.5¢
- Yes$51 @ 25.5¢
- Yes$8 @ 20.3¢