0xac76…9359

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xac761dd9b3a373cc9031dabaab1ecec546299359
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.2pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

56% @ 50.1¢

Brier

0.206

Resolved

3638

Avg size

$17

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	47% (179/384)	+10%	384
Politics	51% (137/267)	+13%	267
Geopolitics	56% (60/107)	+14%	107
Tech	50% (10/20)	+11%	20
Sports	64% (9/14)	+43%	14
Economy	33% (2/6)	-10%	6
Culture	67% (4/6)	+52%	6
Crypto	20% (1/5)	-89%	5

Other384 bets
Hit rate
47% (179/384)
ROI
+10%
Politics267 bets
Hit rate
51% (137/267)
ROI
+13%
Geopolitics107 bets
Hit rate
56% (60/107)
ROI
+14%
Tech20 bets
Hit rate
50% (10/20)
ROI
+11%
Sports14 bets
Hit rate
64% (9/14)
ROI
+43%
Economy6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-10%
Culture6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+52%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-89%

Track record

50% hit · 402/809

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	$39	78.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	$25	36.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	$7	39.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	$5	26.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	$131	42.8¢	Lost
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 30?	Yes	$14	54.8¢	Lost
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $142.5B by October 31?	No	$154	80.0¢	Won
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	$204	50.9¢	Won
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 27?	Yes	$10	51.0¢	Won
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$52	27.6¢	Lost
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$104	56.0¢	Lost
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$111	58.6¢	Won
Will UKMTO publish 4-7 notices between October 26-November 1?	Yes	$46	23.0¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Yes	$35	23.0¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	$12	57.0¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by December 31?	No	$10	19.3¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by December 31?	Yes	$67	56.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$165	82.7¢	Won
Will the IEA ask France to release oil stocks by October 31?	Yes	$3	69.0¢	Lost
Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31, 2026?	No	$130	82.6¢	Won
Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	9.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	19.0¢	Lost
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	$48	69.0¢	Won
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Yes	$60	30.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	$236	78.8¢	Won
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	No	$58	77.0¢	Won
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	$11	11.0¢	Lost
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	$105	52.4¢	Won
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	$3	12.0¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	$142	71.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$115	64.4¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$34	34.0¢	Lost
Rahul Gandhi arrested by October 31, 2026?	No	$74	66.0¢	Won
Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by October 31, 2026?	No	$138	63.6¢	Won
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$6	16.0¢	Lost
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$37	69.0¢	Won
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$54	77.2¢	Won
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$46	46.0¢	Lost
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$54	54.0¢	Won
Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$7	40.0¢	Won
Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$10	54.0¢	Lost
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$37	74.0¢	Lost
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 22?	Yes	$22	80.4¢	Won
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	No	$74	74.0¢	Lost
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	No	$60	47.8¢	Lost
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	$45	30.3¢	Lost
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	No	$25	18.8¢	Lost
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?	Yes	$30	38.0¢	Won
Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	$39	53.3¢	Won
Paris curfew effectively lifted by November 7?	Yes	$85	85.0¢	Won

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Lost
Yes$39 @ 78.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Won
No$25 @ 36.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Lost
Yes$7 @ 39.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Lost
Yes$5 @ 26.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Lost
Yes$131 @ 42.8¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 30?Lost
Yes$14 @ 54.8¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $142.5B by October 31?Won
No$154 @ 80.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Won
No$204 @ 50.9¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 27?Won
Yes$10 @ 51.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$52 @ 27.6¢
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$104 @ 56.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$111 @ 58.6¢
Will UKMTO publish 4-7 notices between October 26-November 1?Lost
Yes$46 @ 23.0¢
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 23.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?Lost
No$12 @ 57.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by December 31?Lost
No$10 @ 19.3¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by December 31?Won
Yes$67 @ 56.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$165 @ 82.7¢
Will the IEA ask France to release oil stocks by October 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 69.0¢
Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31, 2026?Won
No$130 @ 82.6¢
Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 9.0¢
Will Trump meet with Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Won
No$48 @ 69.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Lost
Yes$60 @ 30.0¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?Won
No$236 @ 78.8¢
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?Won
No$58 @ 77.0¢
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Lost
Yes$11 @ 11.0¢
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Won
No$105 @ 52.4¢
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 12.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Won
No$142 @ 71.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
No$115 @ 64.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$34 @ 34.0¢
Rahul Gandhi arrested by October 31, 2026?Won
No$74 @ 66.0¢
Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by October 31, 2026?Won
No$138 @ 63.6¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$6 @ 16.0¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$37 @ 69.0¢
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
Yes$54 @ 77.2¢
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$46 @ 46.0¢
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
Yes$54 @ 54.0¢
Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
Yes$7 @ 40.0¢
Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 54.0¢
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$37 @ 74.0¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 22?Won
Yes$22 @ 80.4¢
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?Lost
No$74 @ 74.0¢
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?Lost
No$60 @ 47.8¢
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?Lost
No$45 @ 30.3¢
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?Lost
No$25 @ 18.8¢
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?Won
Yes$30 @ 38.0¢
Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?Won
No$39 @ 53.3¢
Paris curfew effectively lifted by November 7?Won
Yes$85 @ 85.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$363	58.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$335	95.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Geopolitics	Yes	$239	60.0¢
Clavicular and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez confirm relationship in 2026?	Culture	No	$198	98.9¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$197	38.3¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$194	59.8¢
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for China by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$167	93.0¢
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$163	63.1¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	Business	No	$159	70.9¢
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	Politics	No	$159	46.6¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$153	76.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$146	73.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$144	72.0¢
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$138	69.0¢
Will Geordin Hill-Lewis be the next mayor of Cape Town?	Politics	Yes	$128	88.9¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 15?	Politics	No	$125	87.0¢
Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 7, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$124	68.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$116	58.1¢
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?	Politics	No	$103	76.1¢
Will Bahrain join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$89	89.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$78	31.1¢
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in November 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$75	75.0¢
Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$72	72.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$71	71.1¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$70	46.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	Business	Yes	$69	57.9¢
Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 3, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$69	96.2¢
Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$65	55.7¢
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$56	63.1¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 30?	Politics	No	$54	37.5¢

Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$363 @ 58.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$335 @ 95.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Geopolitics
Yes$239 @ 60.0¢
Clavicular and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez confirm relationship in 2026?Culture
No$198 @ 98.9¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$197 @ 38.3¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$194 @ 59.8¢
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for China by December 31?Geopolitics
No$167 @ 93.0¢
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$163 @ 63.1¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?Business
No$159 @ 70.9¢
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?Politics
No$159 @ 46.6¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$153 @ 76.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$146 @ 73.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$144 @ 72.0¢
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$138 @ 69.0¢
Will Geordin Hill-Lewis be the next mayor of Cape Town?Politics
Yes$128 @ 88.9¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 15?Politics
No$125 @ 87.0¢
Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 7, 2026?Geopolitics
No$124 @ 68.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$116 @ 58.1¢
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?Politics
No$103 @ 76.1¢
Will Bahrain join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$78 @ 31.1¢
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in November 2026?Geopolitics
No$75 @ 75.0¢
Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$72 @ 72.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$71 @ 71.1¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$70 @ 46.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?Business
Yes$69 @ 57.9¢
Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 3, 2026?Geopolitics
No$69 @ 96.2¢
Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$65 @ 55.7¢
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$56 @ 63.1¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 30?Politics
No$54 @ 37.5¢