0xac76…9359

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xac761dd9b3a373cc9031dabaab1ecec546299359
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.9pp

ROI

+28%

Win rate

62% @ 49.2¢

Brier

0.205

Resolved

647

Avg size

$20

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	53% (53/100)	+29%	100
Politics	41% (9/22)	-6%	22
Geopolitics	50% (2/4)	+11%	4
Culture	33% (1/3)	-19%	3
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Sports	100% (1/1)	+52%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+72%	1

Other100 bets
Hit rate
53% (53/100)
ROI
+29%
Politics22 bets
Hit rate
41% (9/22)
ROI
-6%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+11%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-19%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+52%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+72%

Track record

51% hit · 67/132

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$87	41.6¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$9	75.0¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	No	$76	44.0¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$76	52.5¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$149	72.0¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$62	87.4¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$22	42.3¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	$47	31.0¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?	No	$39	8.3¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	$188	75.2¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 26, 2026?	No	$10	51.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$730	68.3¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$39	27.6¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$1.5k	41.9¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$746	69.8¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$133	50.0¢	Lost
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	25.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?	No	$18	46.0¢	Lost
La Velada del Año 6: Viruzz vs Gero Arias	Viruzz	$4	41.0¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$641	74.7¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$47	17.6¢	Lost
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026?	No	$111	70.9¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026?	Yes	$7	36.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$45	86.6¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$397	35.3¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$20	13.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$617	54.6¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	No	$221	56.8¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$287	65.8¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$20	23.7¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?	No	$87	67.0¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$17	28.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$49	82.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$170	84.8¢	Won
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?	Yes	$28	55.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	No	$96	48.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	No	$67	46.9¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	Yes	$6	62.0¢	Won
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	$114	40.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$51	68.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?	No	$18	39.2¢	Won
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	$11	44.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?	No	$35	59.7¢	Won
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?	Yes	$159	65.8¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	No	$125	73.6¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?	Yes	$7	87.0¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	$329	56.5¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	Yes	$78	78.0¢	Lost
Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?	Yes	$2	15.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	$351	47.3¢	Won

NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$87 @ 41.6¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$9 @ 75.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$76 @ 44.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$76 @ 52.5¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Won
Yes$149 @ 72.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$62 @ 87.4¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$22 @ 42.3¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Lost
No$47 @ 31.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Lost
No$39 @ 8.3¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
No$188 @ 75.2¢
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 26, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 51.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$730 @ 68.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$39 @ 27.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 41.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$746 @ 69.8¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$133 @ 50.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 25.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$18 @ 46.0¢
La Velada del Año 6: Viruzz vs Gero AriasLost
Viruzz$4 @ 41.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$641 @ 74.7¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$47 @ 17.6¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026?Won
No$111 @ 70.9¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 36.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$45 @ 86.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$397 @ 35.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$20 @ 13.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$617 @ 54.6¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$221 @ 56.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$287 @ 65.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 23.7¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?Won
No$87 @ 67.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 28.0¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$49 @ 82.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$170 @ 84.8¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Won
Yes$28 @ 55.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Lost
No$96 @ 48.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Lost
No$67 @ 46.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Won
Yes$6 @ 62.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$114 @ 40.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$51 @ 68.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?Won
No$18 @ 39.2¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Won
Yes$11 @ 44.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?Won
No$35 @ 59.7¢
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?Won
Yes$159 @ 65.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Won
No$125 @ 73.6¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Won
Yes$7 @ 87.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Won
No$329 @ 56.5¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Lost
Yes$78 @ 78.0¢
Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?Lost
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Won
No$351 @ 47.3¢

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