0xabb9…2b63

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xabb9d267cc87bca23321768cae85ee4779a42b63
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+15.8pp

ROI

+37%

Win rate

70% @ 54.5¢

Brier

0.192

Resolved

716

Avg size

$27

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	76% (132/173)	+38%	173
Other	45% (20/44)	+0%	44

Politics173 bets
Hit rate
76% (132/173)
ROI
+38%
Other44 bets
Hit rate
45% (20/44)
ROI
+0%

Track record

70% hit · 152/217

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Iliana Iotova win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by at least 12%?	No	$6	96.0¢	Lost
Will SPD win between 7% and 9% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$265	95.0¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-26 House seat?	No	$31	90.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat?	Yes	$237	90.6¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$95	38.8¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?	No	$29	31.0¢	Won
Will Scott Singer be the FL-25 Republican nominee?	Yes	$377	80.1¢	Won
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$17	89.0¢	Won
Will Abdul El-Sayed run 3 to 6 points behind Jocelyn Benson?	Yes	$14	54.0¢	Lost
Will AfD win between 42% and 45% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$357	46.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the TN-05 House seat?	Yes	$37	85.9¢	Won
Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee?	Yes	$82	25.0¢	Won
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$8	12.3¢	Lost
Will Robin Peguero be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?	Yes	$42	37.9¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$78	33.2¢	Won
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?	Yes	$55	88.0¢	Won
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SD or M?	M	$15	39.0¢	Won
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?	Over	$109	47.1¢	Lost
Will Casey Askar be the FL-22 Republican nominee?	Yes	$93	41.9¢	Won
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	Yes	$2	0.6¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat?	No	$15	47.8¢	Won
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Under	$192	74.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-05 House seat?	Yes	$29	15.1¢	Lost
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	Yes	$66	69.2¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party win the OK-05 House seat?	Yes	$46	70.7¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat?	Yes	$109	70.5¢	Won
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$75	70.1¢	Won
Sweden Parliamentary Election: V Over/Under 7%?	Over	$77	68.5¢	Won
Will Grüne win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$8	16.9¢	Lost
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	No	$12	69.0¢	Won
Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?	No	$21	59.2¢	Lost
Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?	Yes	$317	74.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-07 House election by 15%-20%?	No	$8	77.0¢	Won
Will Ralph Norman place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	No	$160	51.0¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?	No	$47	46.9¢	Won
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	$122	71.8¢	Won
Will Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat?	Yes	$46	38.9¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?	No	$17	12.0¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?	No	$33	78.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	Yes	$13	34.8¢	Won
Will James Martin be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?	Yes	$57	53.1¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?	Yes	$59	45.0¢	Won
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	Yes	$23	37.0¢	Lost
Will Victor Marx win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by less than 1%?	Yes	$5	88.0¢	Won
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	$247	78.0¢	Won
Will AfD win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?	No	$6	74.0¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party win the NC-01 House seat?	No	$19	70.0¢	Won
Blue tsunami in 2026?	Yes	$92	60.7¢	Won
Will John Larson be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?	No	$12	83.4¢	Won
Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?	Yes	$116	73.8¢	Won

Will Iliana Iotova win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by at least 12%?Lost
No$6 @ 96.0¢
Will SPD win between 7% and 9% of all valid second votes?Lost
Yes$265 @ 95.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-26 House seat?Won
No$31 @ 90.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat?Won
Yes$237 @ 90.6¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$95 @ 38.8¢
Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?Won
No$29 @ 31.0¢
Will Scott Singer be the FL-25 Republican nominee?Won
Yes$377 @ 80.1¢
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$17 @ 89.0¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed run 3 to 6 points behind Jocelyn Benson?Lost
Yes$14 @ 54.0¢
Will AfD win between 42% and 45% of all valid second votes?Won
Yes$357 @ 46.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TN-05 House seat?Won
Yes$37 @ 85.9¢
Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee?Won
Yes$82 @ 25.0¢
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$8 @ 12.3¢
Will Robin Peguero be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?Lost
Yes$42 @ 37.9¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$78 @ 33.2¢
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?Won
Yes$55 @ 88.0¢
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SD or M?Won
M$15 @ 39.0¢
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?Lost
Over$109 @ 47.1¢
Will Casey Askar be the FL-22 Republican nominee?Won
Yes$93 @ 41.9¢
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.6¢
Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat?Won
No$15 @ 47.8¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?Won
Under$192 @ 74.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-05 House seat?Lost
Yes$29 @ 15.1¢
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?Lost
Yes$66 @ 69.2¢
Will the Republican Party win the OK-05 House seat?Won
Yes$46 @ 70.7¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat?Won
Yes$109 @ 70.5¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
Yes$75 @ 70.1¢
Sweden Parliamentary Election: V Over/Under 7%?Won
Over$77 @ 68.5¢
Will Grüne win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Lost
Yes$8 @ 16.9¢
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Won
No$12 @ 69.0¢
Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?Lost
No$21 @ 59.2¢
Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?Won
Yes$317 @ 74.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-07 House election by 15%-20%?Won
No$8 @ 77.0¢
Will Ralph Norman place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Lost
No$160 @ 51.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?Won
No$47 @ 46.9¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Won
Yes$122 @ 71.8¢
Will Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat?Lost
Yes$46 @ 38.9¢
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?Lost
No$17 @ 12.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?Won
No$33 @ 78.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?Won
Yes$13 @ 34.8¢
Will James Martin be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?Won
Yes$57 @ 53.1¢
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?Won
Yes$59 @ 45.0¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Lost
Yes$23 @ 37.0¢
Will Victor Marx win the Colorado Republican Governor primary by less than 1%?Won
Yes$5 @ 88.0¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Won
Yes$247 @ 78.0¢
Will AfD win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?Lost
No$6 @ 74.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the NC-01 House seat?Won
No$19 @ 70.0¢
Blue tsunami in 2026?Won
Yes$92 @ 60.7¢
Will John Larson be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?Won
No$12 @ 83.4¢
Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?Won
Yes$116 @ 73.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will SPD win between 7% and 9% of all valid second votes?	—	Yes	$265	95.0¢
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?	—	Grüne	$134	44.6¢
Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Politics	Yes	$108	81.4¢
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?	—	Over	$107	47.1¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$77	18.6¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-06 House election by 15%-20%?	Politics	No	$75	92.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 KS-03 House election by 10%-15%?	Politics	No	$73	99.6¢
Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	—	Yes	$71	66.4¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-04 House election by 30%-35%?	Politics	No	$66	90.0¢
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	Politics	Yes	$66	69.2¢
Will Democrats win exactly 10 House seats in New Jersey in the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$59	73.1¢
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$51	39.3¢
Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?	—	Yes	$38	48.1¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$28	70.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-05 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$28	15.0¢
Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or AfD?	—	AfD	$28	32.5¢
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$26	31.2¢
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms run 3 to 6 points behind Jon Ossoff?	Politics	Yes	$22	49.5¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	Politics	Yes	$17	55.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?	Politics	Yes	$17	41.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$16	12.0¢
Will the Centre Party (C) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	—	Yes	$14	42.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$14	11.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	Politics	Yes	$13	34.8¢
Will Bia Kicis win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?	Politics	No	$12	20.8¢
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	Politics	Yes	$11	36.8¢
Will Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$11	38.9¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed run 3 to 6 points behind Jocelyn Benson?	Politics	Yes	$10	54.0¢
Will Marina Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$9	14.0¢
Will the Georgia 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Politics	No	$8	92.0¢

Will SPD win between 7% and 9% of all valid second votes?—
Yes$265 @ 95.0¢
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?—
Grüne$134 @ 44.6¢
Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Politics
Yes$108 @ 81.4¢
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?—
Over$107 @ 47.1¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$77 @ 18.6¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-06 House election by 15%-20%?Politics
No$75 @ 92.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 KS-03 House election by 10%-15%?Politics
No$73 @ 99.6¢
Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?—
Yes$71 @ 66.4¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-04 House election by 30%-35%?Politics
No$66 @ 90.0¢
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?Politics
Yes$66 @ 69.2¢
Will Democrats win exactly 10 House seats in New Jersey in the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
Yes$59 @ 73.1¢
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?Politics
Yes$51 @ 39.3¢
Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?—
Yes$38 @ 48.1¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$28 @ 70.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-05 House seat?Politics
Yes$28 @ 15.0¢
Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or AfD?—
AfD$28 @ 32.5¢
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$26 @ 31.2¢
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms run 3 to 6 points behind Jon Ossoff?Politics
Yes$22 @ 49.5¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?Politics
Yes$17 @ 55.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?Politics
Yes$17 @ 41.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?Politics
No$16 @ 12.0¢
Will the Centre Party (C) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?—
Yes$14 @ 42.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$14 @ 11.1¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?Politics
Yes$13 @ 34.8¢
Will Bia Kicis win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?Politics
No$12 @ 20.8¢
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?Politics
Yes$11 @ 36.8¢
Will Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat?Politics
Yes$11 @ 38.9¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed run 3 to 6 points behind Jocelyn Benson?Politics
Yes$10 @ 54.0¢
Will Marina Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?Politics
Yes$9 @ 14.0¢
Will the Georgia 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Politics
No$8 @ 92.0¢