0xab79…f2ed

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xab795bf04976828027b7ebe7814c7100e14ff2ed
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-11.4pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

36% @ 47.9¢

Brier

0.193

Resolved

285

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	39% (18/46)	-45%	46
Geopolitics	54% (14/26)	+37%	26
Politics	68% (15/22)	+5%	22
Sports	44% (4/9)	-25%	9
Tech	100% (2/2)	+26%	2
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other46 bets
Hit rate
39% (18/46)
ROI
-45%
Geopolitics26 bets
Hit rate
54% (14/26)
ROI
+37%
Politics22 bets
Hit rate
68% (15/22)
ROI
+5%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
44% (4/9)
ROI
-25%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+26%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

50% hit · 53/106

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	$20	60.0¢	Lost
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$26	65.0¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 15, 2026?	Yes	$100	83.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$73	68.9¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	Yes	$112	43.1¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31?	Yes	$4	34.0¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	60.7¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	No	$50	74.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?	No	$85	37.3¢	Lost
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	13.4¢	Lost
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 27, 2026?	Yes	$2	8.4¢	Lost
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?	No	$33	52.1¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	$26	70.7¢	Lost
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?	No	$23	88.0¢	Won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?	Yes	$22	15.7¢	Lost
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	$7	65.4¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?	Yes	$44	49.6¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	$1	21.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Toretske by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	31.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?	No	$5	45.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	$60	69.8¢	Won
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30?	No	$67	72.5¢	Won
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	5.6¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?	No	$14	74.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	No	$10	75.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$2	15.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	Yes	$16	32.9¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	65.4¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	3.6¢	Lost
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?	No	$20	72.3¢	Won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?	Yes	$10	24.0¢	Lost
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?	No	$5	40.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?	No	$7	19.3¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?	No	$51	57.7¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$5	77.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	$2	68.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	$5	76.3¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	No	$30	54.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	Yes	$39	40.8¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	$5	76.8¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?	No	$15	71.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?	Yes	$3	29.0¢	Lost
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17?	No	$45	28.1¢	Lost
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$2	58.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	No	$37	33.6¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?	Yes	$63	30.8¢	Lost
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	No	$3	31.5¢	Lost
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	Yes	$3	23.0¢	Won
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	1.1¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Moskovka by September 30?	No	$56	52.0¢	Won

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 60.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$26 @ 65.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 15, 2026?Won
Yes$100 @ 83.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$73 @ 68.9¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Lost
Yes$112 @ 43.1¢
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 34.0¢
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 60.7¢
Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?Won
No$50 @ 74.0¢
Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?Lost
No$85 @ 37.3¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 13.4¢
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.4¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?Won
No$33 @ 52.1¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Lost
No$26 @ 70.7¢
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 88.0¢
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 15.7¢
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionLost
Yes$7 @ 65.4¢
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?Lost
Yes$44 @ 49.6¢
Will France win on 2026-07-14?Lost
Yes$1 @ 21.0¢
Will Russia capture Toretske by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 31.0¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 45.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
Yes$60 @ 69.8¢
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30?Won
No$67 @ 72.5¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.6¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?Won
No$14 @ 74.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?Won
No$10 @ 75.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?Won
Yes$16 @ 32.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 65.4¢
Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.6¢
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 72.3¢
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 24.0¢
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?Won
No$5 @ 40.0¢
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?Lost
No$7 @ 19.3¢
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?Won
No$51 @ 57.7¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$5 @ 77.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?Won
Yes$2 @ 68.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Won
No$5 @ 76.3¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Lost
No$30 @ 54.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Won
Yes$39 @ 40.8¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Won
Yes$5 @ 76.8¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?Won
No$15 @ 71.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 29.0¢
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17?Lost
No$45 @ 28.1¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
Yes$2 @ 58.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Lost
No$37 @ 33.6¢
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?Lost
Yes$63 @ 30.8¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?Lost
No$3 @ 31.5¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?Won
Yes$3 @ 23.0¢
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
Will Russia enter Moskovka by September 30?Won
No$56 @ 52.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by March 31, 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$297	64.3¢
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by June 30, 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$290	41.4¢
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$148	70.4¢
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$130	74.6¢
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$130	81.6¢
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$100	60.0¢
Will Russia capture Bilytske by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$81	80.0¢
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$80	75.8¢
Will Russia enter Moskovka by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$44	57.7¢
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30, 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$37	92.0¢
Will Russia enter Kherson by December 31, 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$34	85.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$30	73.0¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$20	13.6¢
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$20	36.0¢
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31?	Politics	No	$10	50.0¢
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2	46.0¢

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by March 31, 2027?Geopolitics
No$297 @ 64.3¢
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by June 30, 2027?Geopolitics
No$290 @ 41.4¢
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2027?Geopolitics
No$148 @ 70.4¢
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$130 @ 74.6¢
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?Geopolitics
No$130 @ 81.6¢
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$100 @ 60.0¢
Will Russia capture Bilytske by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$81 @ 80.0¢
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?Geopolitics
No$80 @ 75.8¢
Will Russia enter Moskovka by October 31?Geopolitics
No$44 @ 57.7¢
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30, 2027?Geopolitics
No$37 @ 92.0¢
Will Russia enter Kherson by December 31, 2027?Geopolitics
No$34 @ 85.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$30 @ 73.0¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$20 @ 13.6¢
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$20 @ 36.0¢
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31?Politics
No$10 @ 50.0¢
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by December 31?Politics
Yes$2 @ 46.0¢