0xab18…467d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xab18d12977eb41276083e6f05f68a23f921a467d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.8pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

22% @ 19.2¢

Brier

0.084

Resolved

4711

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	39% (164/420)	+26%	420
Science	41% (9/22)	+40%	22
Politics	28% (5/18)	-55%	18
Culture	20% (2/10)	-5%	10
Sports	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Geopolitics	50% (2/4)	-52%	4
Economy	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other420 bets
Hit rate
39% (164/420)
ROI
+26%
Science22 bets
Hit rate
41% (9/22)
ROI
+40%
Politics18 bets
Hit rate
28% (5/18)
ROI
-55%
Culture10 bets
Hit rate
20% (2/10)
ROI
-5%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-52%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

38% hit · 182/480

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will there be at least 3500+ measles cases in the U.S. by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$54	88.7¢	Won
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?	Yes	$71	1.0¢	Lost
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised - Game 4 Winner	Sentinels	$114	57.0¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 5?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
LoL: The Bandits vs ZennIT (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs	ZennIT	$24	4.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 4?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 26?	Yes	$6	4.3¢	Lost
Will "The Strangers: Chapter 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5.75m?	Yes	$301	72.6¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$1	63.0¢	Lost
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	Yes	$14	7.0¢	Lost
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 30?	Yes	$29	36.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 26?	Yes	$43	20.2¢	Lost
TikTok sale announced by September 30?	No	$75	74.7¢	Won
Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $13m and $14m?	Yes	$99	3.1¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	$84	3.2¢	Lost
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%?	Yes	$3	0.2¢	Lost
Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 29m?	Yes	$98	3.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 22?	Yes	$10	40.0¢	Won
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?	No	$38	61.4¢	Lost
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?	Yes	$4	37.0¢	Won
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.5-4.75 in June?	Yes	$34	2.1¢	Lost
Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	Yes	$4	32.5¢	Lost
LoL: Team Liquid vs Dignitas (BO1) - LCS Lock In Last Chance Qualifier	Dignitas	$150	13.5¢	Lost
LoL: Team Liquid vs Dignitas (BO1) - LCS Lock In Last Chance Qualifier	Team Liquid	$105	24.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 25?	Yes	$7	9.4¢	Lost
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April?	Yes	$3	4.9¢	Lost
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?	Yes	$20	1.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 5?	Yes	$20	9.3¢	Lost
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?	No	$61	31.5¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on April 26?	No	$4	85.0¢	Won
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	$615	63.7¢	Won
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$128	2.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$154	77.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?	No	$85	85.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 4?	No	$19	47.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 4?	Yes	$68	2.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 26?	Yes	$5	4.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 15?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised - Game 2 Winner	Sentinels	$26	2.3¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 7?	Yes	$8	3.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 14?	No	$76	86.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 14?	Yes	$78	20.4¢	Lost
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	No	$128	58.2¢	Won
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	Yes	$3	0.3¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$39	77.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 14?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 2% and 1%?	Yes	$1	3.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 1?	No	$83	62.1¢	Lost

Will there be at least 3500+ measles cases in the U.S. by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$54 @ 88.7¢
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?Lost
Yes$71 @ 1.0¢
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised - Game 4 WinnerWon
Sentinels$114 @ 57.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 5?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
LoL: The Bandits vs ZennIT (BO5) - Road Of Legends PlayoffsLost
ZennIT$24 @ 4.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 4?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 26?Lost
Yes$6 @ 4.3¢
Will "The Strangers: Chapter 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5.75m?Won
Yes$301 @ 72.6¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 63.0¢
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?Lost
Yes$14 @ 7.0¢
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 30?Lost
Yes$29 @ 36.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 26?Lost
Yes$43 @ 20.2¢
TikTok sale announced by September 30?Won
No$75 @ 74.7¢
Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $13m and $14m?Lost
Yes$99 @ 3.1¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Lost
Yes$84 @ 3.2¢
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.2¢
Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 29m?Lost
Yes$98 @ 3.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 22?Won
Yes$10 @ 40.0¢
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?Lost
No$38 @ 61.4¢
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?Won
Yes$4 @ 37.0¢
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.5-4.75 in June?Lost
Yes$34 @ 2.1¢
Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?Lost
Yes$4 @ 32.5¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs Dignitas (BO1) - LCS Lock In Last Chance QualifierLost
Dignitas$150 @ 13.5¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs Dignitas (BO1) - LCS Lock In Last Chance QualifierWon
Team Liquid$105 @ 24.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 25?Lost
Yes$7 @ 9.4¢
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April?Lost
Yes$3 @ 4.9¢
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?Lost
Yes$20 @ 1.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 5?Lost
Yes$20 @ 9.3¢
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?Won
No$61 @ 31.5¢
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on April 26?Won
No$4 @ 85.0¢
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Won
No$615 @ 63.7¢
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$128 @ 2.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$154 @ 77.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?Won
No$85 @ 85.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 4?Won
No$19 @ 47.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 4?Lost
Yes$68 @ 2.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 26?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised - Game 2 WinnerLost
Sentinels$26 @ 2.3¢
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 7?Lost
Yes$8 @ 3.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 14?Won
No$76 @ 86.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 14?Lost
Yes$78 @ 20.4¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?Won
No$128 @ 58.2¢
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.3¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$39 @ 77.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 14?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 2% and 1%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 1?Lost
No$83 @ 62.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$341	85.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	Other	Yes	$138	69.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in September?	Business	Yes	$118	69.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$82	82.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	Other	Yes	$72	72.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Other	Yes	$71	28.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?	Other	Yes	$70	35.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in September?	Business	Yes	$60	18.7¢
Will there be at least 3700+ measles cases in the U.S. by September 30, 2026?	Science	Yes	$48	29.8¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$41	9.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	Other	Yes	$24	39.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$23	23.0¢
Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m?	Culture	Yes	$18	18.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	Other	Yes	$15	5.1¢
Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 17m?	Culture	Yes	$15	15.0¢
Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?	Culture	Yes	$14	29.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?	Other	Yes	$14	1.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	Other	Yes	$7	7.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	Other	Yes	$7	3.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?	Other	Yes	$6	3.1¢
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Culture	No	$5	98.2¢
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Culture	Yes	$4	1.9¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in September?	Business	Yes	$1	1.0¢

Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$341 @ 85.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?Other
Yes$138 @ 69.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in September?Business
Yes$118 @ 69.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$82 @ 82.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?Other
Yes$72 @ 72.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?Other
Yes$71 @ 28.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?Other
Yes$70 @ 35.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in September?Business
Yes$60 @ 18.7¢
Will there be at least 3700+ measles cases in the U.S. by September 30, 2026?Science
Yes$48 @ 29.8¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$41 @ 9.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?Other
Yes$24 @ 39.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
Yes$23 @ 23.0¢
Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m?Culture
Yes$18 @ 18.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?Other
Yes$15 @ 5.1¢
Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 17m?Culture
Yes$15 @ 15.0¢
Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?Culture
Yes$14 @ 29.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?Other
Yes$14 @ 1.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?Other
Yes$7 @ 7.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?Other
Yes$7 @ 3.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?Other
Yes$6 @ 3.1¢
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Culture
No$5 @ 98.2¢
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Culture
Yes$4 @ 1.9¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in September?Business
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢