0xaa99…dbbf

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xaa99a6c279d34492683db6ff1818aa1f8485dbbf
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.5pp

ROI

+20%

Win rate

48% @ 37.5¢

Brier

0.171

Resolved

2389

Avg size

$108

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	51% (202/395)	+15%	395
Politics	47% (56/119)	+23%	119
Tech	50% (9/18)	+36%	18
Geopolitics	40% (6/15)	-20%	15
Culture	60% (3/5)	+18%	5
Sports	50% (1/2)	+90%	2
Science	50% (1/2)	-42%	2
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+249%	2
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other395 bets
Hit rate
51% (202/395)
ROI
+15%
Politics119 bets
Hit rate
47% (56/119)
ROI
+23%
Tech18 bets
Hit rate
50% (9/18)
ROI
+36%
Geopolitics15 bets
Hit rate
40% (6/15)
ROI
-20%
Culture5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+18%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+90%
Science2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-42%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+249%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

50% hit · 279/559

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$11	52.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$644	22.9¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$667	30.8¢	Won
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	Yes	$525	75.0¢	Won
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	No	$54	9.0¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	Yes	$100	50.1¢	Won
North Korea missile launch by January 31?	No	$30	55.9¢	Lost
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$424	41.8¢	Won
Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?	No	$82	59.4¢	Won
Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?	Yes	$29	58.0¢	Lost
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?	Yes	$77	77.0¢	Won
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 31 be between 6,000 and 6,500?	Yes	$15	30.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$406	40.0¢	Won
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$145	1.0¢	Lost
Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	$15	1.3¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	$201	43.5¢	Lost
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?	No	$124	31.0¢	Lost
Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026?	No	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$345	85.2¢	Won
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?	No	$8	45.5¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$773	76.9¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$947	28.7¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$55	10.6¢	Lost
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	$120	60.0¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	Yes	$197	29.2¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$420	7.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?	Yes	$263	42.4¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?	No	$176	28.2¢	Won
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)?	No	$92	6.2¢	Lost
Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?	No	$415	83.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?	Yes	$442	55.9¢	Won
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$330	66.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$6.9k	19.5¢	Lost
Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 28 over 30% on Friday?	No	$475	69.4¢	Won
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?	Yes	$20	18.3¢	Lost
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?	Yes	$2.5k	62.7¢	Won
Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?	Yes	$68	72.0¢	Won
US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by February 23?	No	$745	87.1¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	Yes	$18	2.3¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	$288	75.0¢	Won
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?	Yes	$23	0.3¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$885	67.1¢	Won
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30?	No	$29	33.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 33 and 34 million views on day 1?	Yes	$61	61.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$340	53.0¢	Won
Will John Fetterman applaud during Trump's State of the Union?	Yes	$46	76.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	Yes	$241	42.4¢	Won
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	No	$63	83.0¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?	Yes	$2	2.6¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	$156	0.3¢	Lost

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$11 @ 52.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$644 @ 22.9¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$667 @ 30.8¢
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Won
Yes$525 @ 75.0¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Lost
No$54 @ 9.0¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Won
Yes$100 @ 50.1¢
North Korea missile launch by January 31?Lost
No$30 @ 55.9¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$424 @ 41.8¢
Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?Won
No$82 @ 59.4¢
Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?Lost
Yes$29 @ 58.0¢
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?Won
Yes$77 @ 77.0¢
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 31 be between 6,000 and 6,500?Lost
Yes$15 @ 30.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$406 @ 40.0¢
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$145 @ 1.0¢
Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Lost
No$15 @ 1.3¢
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$201 @ 43.5¢
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?Lost
No$124 @ 31.0¢
Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 0.4¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$345 @ 85.2¢
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?Won
No$8 @ 45.5¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$773 @ 76.9¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$947 @ 28.7¢
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? Lost
Yes$55 @ 10.6¢
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?Won
Yes$120 @ 60.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Lost
Yes$197 @ 29.2¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$420 @ 7.0¢
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?Lost
Yes$263 @ 42.4¢
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?Won
No$176 @ 28.2¢
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)?Lost
No$92 @ 6.2¢
Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?Won
No$415 @ 83.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Won
Yes$442 @ 55.9¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$330 @ 66.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6.9k @ 19.5¢
Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 28 over 30% on Friday?Won
No$475 @ 69.4¢
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?Lost
Yes$20 @ 18.3¢
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?Won
Yes$2.5k @ 62.7¢
Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?Won
Yes$68 @ 72.0¢
US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by February 23?Won
No$745 @ 87.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?Lost
Yes$18 @ 2.3¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Won
Yes$288 @ 75.0¢
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?Lost
Yes$23 @ 0.3¢
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$885 @ 67.1¢
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30?Won
No$29 @ 33.0¢
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 33 and 34 million views on day 1?Won
Yes$61 @ 61.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$340 @ 53.0¢
Will John Fetterman applaud during Trump's State of the Union?Won
Yes$46 @ 76.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?Won
Yes$241 @ 42.4¢
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?Won
No$63 @ 83.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.6¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
No$156 @ 0.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	No	$2.3k	89.3¢
Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	88.5¢
Will New Jersey use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	No	$1.5k	85.5¢
Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	Politics	No	$1.4k	70.4¢
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.1k	65.4¢
Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	No	$913	86.9¢
Will Dickens Cheung win the 2026 Richmond mayoral election?	Politics	No	$887	75.7¢
Saxony-Anhalt snap election called in 2026?	Politics	No	$790	79.0¢
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$778	30.8¢
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?	Politics	Yes	$740	37.0¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Politics	Yes	$662	50.0¢
Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?	Politics	No	$652	79.5¢
Will John James Akpanudoedehe win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election?	Politics	No	$617	77.3¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$568	18.9¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	Politics	No	$419	62.2¢
Will Wisconsin use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	No	$388	83.0¢
Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$366	50.7¢
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$340	56.7¢
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$333	37.5¢
Will Pauline Hanson be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?	Politics	No	$301	75.0¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$275	30.0¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	Tech	No	$252	40.0¢
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?	Politics	No	$221	78.6¢
Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Tech	Yes	$189	20.0¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$181	76.0¢
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$176	22.0¢
Will Simone Tebet win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$142	30.8¢
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?	Politics	No	$139	70.2¢
Nicușor Dan out as President of Romania in 2026?	Politics	No	$133	57.0¢
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?	Politics	No	$111	86.1¢

Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
No$2.3k @ 89.3¢
Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
Yes$1.7k @ 88.5¢
Will New Jersey use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
No$1.5k @ 85.5¢
Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?Politics
No$1.4k @ 70.4¢
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.1k @ 65.4¢
Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
No$913 @ 86.9¢
Will Dickens Cheung win the 2026 Richmond mayoral election?Politics
No$887 @ 75.7¢
Saxony-Anhalt snap election called in 2026?Politics
No$790 @ 79.0¢
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$778 @ 30.8¢
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?Politics
Yes$740 @ 37.0¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Politics
Yes$662 @ 50.0¢
Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?Politics
No$652 @ 79.5¢
Will John James Akpanudoedehe win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election?Politics
No$617 @ 77.3¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
Yes$568 @ 18.9¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?Politics
No$419 @ 62.2¢
Will Wisconsin use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
No$388 @ 83.0¢
Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$366 @ 50.7¢
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$340 @ 56.7¢
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?Politics
Yes$333 @ 37.5¢
Will Pauline Hanson be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?Politics
No$301 @ 75.0¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$275 @ 30.0¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?Tech
No$252 @ 40.0¢
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?Politics
No$221 @ 78.6¢
Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Tech
Yes$189 @ 20.0¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?Geopolitics
No$181 @ 76.0¢
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$176 @ 22.0¢
Will Simone Tebet win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?Politics
Yes$142 @ 30.8¢
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?Politics
No$139 @ 70.2¢
Nicușor Dan out as President of Romania in 2026?Politics
No$133 @ 57.0¢
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?Politics
No$111 @ 86.1¢