0xa9f2…6c8e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa9f2d6b4a8b0b322ddb2f837c2852c1b47056c8e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.6pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

50% @ 47.7¢

Brier

0.200

Resolved

2402

Avg size

$71

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	31% (51/163)	-2%	163
Politics	57% (59/104)	+12%	104
Sports	47% (14/30)	-8%	30
Geopolitics	52% (11/21)	+31%	21
Tech	40% (2/5)	-81%	5
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+12%	2
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+45%	1

Other163 bets
Hit rate
31% (51/163)
ROI
-2%
Politics104 bets
Hit rate
57% (59/104)
ROI
+12%
Sports30 bets
Hit rate
47% (14/30)
ROI
-8%
Geopolitics21 bets
Hit rate
52% (11/21)
ROI
+31%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-81%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+12%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+45%

Track record

43% hit · 139/327

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?	No	$15	33.0¢	Lost
Will Ilia Topuria fight Charles Oliveira next?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	$7.0k	81.5¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	No	$177	81.6¢	Won
Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini	Grigor Dimitrov	$101	69.0¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$240	46.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 29?	No	$20	61.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$215	69.7¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$50	46.0¢	Lost
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka	Sri Lanka	$103	11.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$35	7.3¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$254	69.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$2.6k	45.5¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	Yes	$5	0.6¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$13	75.6¢	Won
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?	No	$327	83.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 4?	Yes	$4	2.1¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Under	$50	68.0¢	Won
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	Yes	$50	31.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$350	14.3¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$10	16.8¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$520	81.4¢	Won
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	No	$151	72.0¢	Lost
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	No	$31	36.0¢	Lost
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$202	80.0¢	Won
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$1.0k	68.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.0k	7.9¢	Lost
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Morocco?	Yes	$50	42.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 10?	Yes	$5	4.0¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$2.5k	80.9¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$352	29.3¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$400	67.3¢	Won
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 France?	Yes	$75	69.5¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$876	48.6¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?	Yes	$2	9.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 6?	Yes	$5	6.3¢	Won
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$30	68.0¢	Lost
Over $40M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	No	$76	86.4¢	Won
Over $40M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	Yes	$10	23.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 18?	Yes	$3	10.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 22?	Yes	$1	1.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 6?	Yes	$4	2.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 15?	Yes	$16	12.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 10?	Yes	$41	34.9¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$944	48.2¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$500	88.5¢	Won
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Yes	$50	62.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 10?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?	Yes	$50	10.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 17?	Yes	$3	4.0¢	Lost

Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?Lost
No$15 @ 33.0¢
Will Ilia Topuria fight Charles Oliveira next?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
No$7.0k @ 81.5¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Won
No$177 @ 81.6¢
Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo BerrettiniWon
Grigor Dimitrov$101 @ 69.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$240 @ 46.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 29?Lost
No$20 @ 61.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$215 @ 69.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 46.0¢
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri LankaLost
Sri Lanka$103 @ 11.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 7.3¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$254 @ 69.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$2.6k @ 45.5¢
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.6¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$13 @ 75.6¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?Won
No$327 @ 83.3¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 4?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.1¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5Won
Under$50 @ 68.0¢
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Won
Yes$50 @ 31.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$350 @ 14.3¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$10 @ 16.8¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$520 @ 81.4¢
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?Lost
No$151 @ 72.0¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Lost
No$31 @ 36.0¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$202 @ 80.0¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 68.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 7.9¢
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Morocco?Lost
Yes$50 @ 42.5¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 10?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$2.5k @ 80.9¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$352 @ 29.3¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$400 @ 67.3¢
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 France?Won
Yes$75 @ 69.5¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$876 @ 48.6¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?Lost
Yes$2 @ 9.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 6?Won
Yes$5 @ 6.3¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 68.0¢
Over $40M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Won
No$76 @ 86.4¢
Over $40M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Lost
Yes$10 @ 23.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 18?Lost
Yes$3 @ 10.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 22?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 6?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 15?Lost
Yes$16 @ 12.6¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 10?Lost
Yes$41 @ 34.9¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$944 @ 48.2¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$500 @ 88.5¢
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?Won
Yes$50 @ 62.9¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 10?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?Lost
Yes$50 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 17?Lost
Yes$3 @ 4.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$10.0k	91.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$5.0k	85.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$510	64.0¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Politics	No	$274	69.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$245	80.0¢
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	Politics	No	$150	75.0¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$150	63.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Politics	No	$103	58.0¢
Will Clavicular visit Brazil in 2026?	Culture	No	$50	77.0¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$25	29.0¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$25	74.0¢

Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$10.0k @ 91.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$5.0k @ 85.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$510 @ 64.0¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics
No$274 @ 69.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
No$245 @ 80.0¢
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Politics
No$150 @ 75.0¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$150 @ 63.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
No$103 @ 58.0¢
Will Clavicular visit Brazil in 2026?Culture
No$50 @ 77.0¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Politics
Yes$25 @ 29.0¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$25 @ 74.0¢