0xa937…4152

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa937362b23264e9d69a8344c5192b55c89954152
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.2pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

60% @ 56.8¢

Brier

0.183

Resolved

1293

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	60% (172/289)	+4%	289
Other	62% (166/267)	+5%	267
Geopolitics	56% (39/70)	+9%	70
Sports	45% (31/69)	+9%	69
Crypto	88% (23/26)	+18%	26
Culture	59% (13/22)	+26%	22
Tech	75% (9/12)	+19%	12
Business	83% (10/12)	+7%	12
Economy	78% (7/9)	+19%	9

Politics289 bets
Hit rate
60% (172/289)
ROI
+4%
Other267 bets
Hit rate
62% (166/267)
ROI
+5%
Geopolitics70 bets
Hit rate
56% (39/70)
ROI
+9%
Sports69 bets
Hit rate
45% (31/69)
ROI
+9%
Crypto26 bets
Hit rate
88% (23/26)
ROI
+18%
Culture22 bets
Hit rate
59% (13/22)
ROI
+26%
Tech12 bets
Hit rate
75% (9/12)
ROI
+19%
Business12 bets
Hit rate
83% (10/12)
ROI
+7%
Economy9 bets
Hit rate
78% (7/9)
ROI
+19%

Track record

61% hit · 470/776

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 31?	Yes	$12	58.5¢	Won
Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	$8	47.8¢	Won
Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Yes	$11	52.0¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$4	50.8¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$5	47.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$3	15.0¢	Lost
Giants vs. Rams: O/U 47.5	Over	$10	50.0¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$7	89.9¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$8	82.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	54.0¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$6	55.0¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	Yes	$3	16.5¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$3	33.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$10	41.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	$7	69.0¢	Won
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5	Over	$8	75.7¢	Lost
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Uzbekistan	$3	32.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Yes	$1	15.0¢	Lost
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	$2	86.0¢	Won
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Under	$5	31.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Lost
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	Yes	$5	52.0¢	Won
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in September?	No	$13	80.9¢	Won
Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?	Yes	$7	89.0¢	Won
Will Folarin Balogun score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$7	65.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$5	23.5¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	$8	78.8¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$38	83.9¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	16.9¢	Lost
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$9	87.0¢	Won
Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?	No	$18	89.0¢	Won
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)	Los Angeles Dodgers	$8	78.0¢	Lost
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$11	37.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$20	65.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$11	27.7¢	Lost
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?	Yes	$7	57.0¢	Won
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	22.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$7	65.0¢	Lost
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	No	$6	86.0¢	Won
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	15.0¢	Lost
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?	Yes	$6	59.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$30	74.8¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$6	28.5¢	Lost
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?	No	$7	74.0¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$8	79.2¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$5	48.0¢	Lost
Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 31m?	No	$11	87.0¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	50.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	No	$8	75.0¢	Won

Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 31?Won
Yes$12 @ 58.5¢
Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Won
Yes$8 @ 47.8¢
Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?Won
Yes$11 @ 52.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$4 @ 50.8¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
Yes$5 @ 47.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$3 @ 15.0¢
Giants vs. Rams: O/U 47.5Lost
Over$10 @ 50.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$7 @ 89.9¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 82.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 54.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$6 @ 55.0¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 16.5¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$3 @ 33.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$10 @ 41.6¢
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event?Won
Yes$7 @ 69.0¢
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5Lost
Over$8 @ 75.7¢
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Lost
Uzbekistan$3 @ 32.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Lost
Yes$1 @ 15.0¢
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Won
No$2 @ 86.0¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5Won
Under$5 @ 31.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Won
Yes$5 @ 52.0¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in September?Won
No$13 @ 80.9¢
Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?Won
Yes$7 @ 89.0¢
Will Folarin Balogun score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$7 @ 65.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 23.5¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
No$8 @ 78.8¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$38 @ 83.9¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3 @ 16.9¢
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$9 @ 87.0¢
Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?Won
No$18 @ 89.0¢
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Lost
Los Angeles Dodgers$8 @ 78.0¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$11 @ 37.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 65.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 27.7¢
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?Won
Yes$7 @ 57.0¢
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 22.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 65.0¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Won
No$6 @ 86.0¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?Won
Yes$6 @ 59.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$30 @ 74.8¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$6 @ 28.5¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?Won
No$7 @ 74.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$8 @ 79.2¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$5 @ 48.0¢
Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 31m?Won
No$11 @ 87.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 50.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 75.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $860 in October?	Business	No	$31	83.3¢
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $195 in October?	Business	No	$31	68.8¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in October?	Other	No	$31	83.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Crypto	No	$30	82.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$27	60.5¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?	Crypto	No	$26	82.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$25	83.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$24	68.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$23	66.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Other	No	$22	86.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$22	50.1¢
Will Democrats win exactly 10 House seats in New Jersey in the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$21	70.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$20	57.9¢
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?	Culture	No	$20	70.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?	Crypto	No	$20	85.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?	Crypto	No	$20	87.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$19	76.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$18	58.3¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$18	88.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$17	58.0¢
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$17	87.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$17	87.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$17	68.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$17	85.0¢
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	No	$17	85.0¢
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$17	84.2¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in October?	Business	No	$16	87.0¢
Will Solana dip to $90 in October?	Crypto	No	$16	82.0¢
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Politics	Yes	$16	57.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$15	76.0¢

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $860 in October?Business
No$31 @ 83.3¢
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $195 in October?Business
No$31 @ 68.8¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in October?Other
No$31 @ 83.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?Crypto
No$30 @ 82.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$27 @ 60.5¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?Crypto
No$26 @ 82.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$25 @ 83.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$24 @ 68.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$23 @ 66.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Other
No$22 @ 86.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$22 @ 50.1¢
Will Democrats win exactly 10 House seats in New Jersey in the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
Yes$21 @ 70.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$20 @ 57.9¢
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?Culture
No$20 @ 70.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?Crypto
No$20 @ 85.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?Crypto
No$20 @ 87.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$19 @ 76.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$18 @ 58.3¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$18 @ 88.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$17 @ 58.0¢
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$17 @ 87.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$17 @ 87.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$17 @ 68.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$17 @ 85.0¢
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
No$17 @ 85.0¢
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto
No$17 @ 84.2¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in October?Business
No$16 @ 87.0¢
Will Solana dip to $90 in October?Crypto
No$16 @ 82.0¢
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?Politics
Yes$16 @ 57.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$15 @ 76.0¢