← Smart money
0xa87a…aeb6
SharpEdge
+24.0pp
ROI
+40%
Win rate
49% @ 25.2¢
Brier
0.173
Resolved
63
Avg size
$116
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 50% (4/8) | +40% | 8 |
| Politics | 100% (1/1) | +38% | 1 |
- Other8 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (4/8)
- ROI
- +40%
- Politics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +38%
Track record
56% hit · 5/9| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | $2.0k | 85.6¢ | Won |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? | Yes | $54 | 18.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | No | $243 | 2.8¢ | Lost |
| Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? | Yes | $220 | 72.6¢ | Won |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Yes | $160 | 16.0¢ | Lost |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | $255 | 51.0¢ | Won |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | $1.5k | 37.6¢ | Won |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | Yes | $79 | 15.8¢ | Lost |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | $2.8k | 88.7¢ | Won |
- Yes$2.0k @ 85.6¢
- Yes$54 @ 18.0¢
- No$243 @ 2.8¢
- Yes$220 @ 72.6¢
- Yes$160 @ 16.0¢
- Yes$255 @ 51.0¢
- Yes$1.5k @ 37.6¢
- Yes$79 @ 15.8¢
- Yes$2.8k @ 88.7¢
Recent trades
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