0xa821…0bc8

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa8214a76e24da3bd037763b5d76216c33ca00bc8
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.6pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

57% @ 50.6¢

Brier

0.162

Resolved

1132

Avg size

$53

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	51% (53/103)	+20%	103
Politics	46% (28/61)	+2%	61
Sports	54% (15/28)	+17%	28
Science	55% (12/22)	+22%	22
Tech	23% (3/13)	-55%	13
Economy	54% (7/13)	+16%	13
Geopolitics	57% (4/7)	+12%	7
Business	33% (1/3)	+8%	3

Other103 bets
Hit rate
51% (53/103)
ROI
+20%
Politics61 bets
Hit rate
46% (28/61)
ROI
+2%
Sports28 bets
Hit rate
54% (15/28)
ROI
+17%
Science22 bets
Hit rate
55% (12/22)
ROI
+22%
Tech13 bets
Hit rate
23% (3/13)
ROI
-55%
Economy13 bets
Hit rate
54% (7/13)
ROI
+16%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
+12%
Business3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+8%

Track record

49% hit · 123/250

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$250	62.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 2?	Yes	$4	6.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on May 29?	No	$855	76.9¢	Won
Will Felipe Curi win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Yes	$23	11.7¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$324	54.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$287	36.6¢	Lost
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$127	10.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4?	Yes	$3	0.4¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$236	59.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 13?	Yes	$69	57.5¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 30?	Yes	$56	87.5¢	Won
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$172	86.0¢	Won
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?	No	$190	47.6¢	Lost
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$180	89.9¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1.2k	86.9¢	Won
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$357	89.3¢	Won
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$20	10.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$140	70.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 11?	No	$46	66.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 11?	Yes	$61	48.7¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$4.1k	68.3¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$691	22.4¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?	Yes	$23	5.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on July 11?	No	$127	87.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on July 11?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Lost
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$94	47.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$160	80.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$30	15.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 6?	No	$15	37.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 6?	Yes	$24	28.3¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on July 4?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?	No	$177	88.4¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$340	56.7¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$341	49.5¢	Won
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?	Yes	$136	68.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 4?	No	$933	43.9¢	Lost
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	No	$41	21.0¢	Won
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	$78	39.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 11?	Yes	$2	2.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 26?	Yes	$1	26.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$206	51.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$70	35.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3?	No	$705	86.0¢	Won
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$170	84.9¢	Won
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$57	14.3¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$56	28.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5?	No	$64	85.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 28?	No	$362	84.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 27?	Yes	$16	7.3¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	No	$156	78.0¢	Won

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$250 @ 62.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 2?Lost
Yes$4 @ 6.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on May 29?Won
No$855 @ 76.9¢
Will Felipe Curi win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Lost
Yes$23 @ 11.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$324 @ 54.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$287 @ 36.6¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$127 @ 10.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.4¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$236 @ 59.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 13?Lost
Yes$69 @ 57.5¢
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 30?Won
Yes$56 @ 87.5¢
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$172 @ 86.0¢
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?Lost
No$190 @ 47.6¢
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$180 @ 89.9¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$1.2k @ 86.9¢
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$357 @ 89.3¢
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$20 @ 10.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$140 @ 70.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 11?Won
No$46 @ 66.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 11?Lost
Yes$61 @ 48.7¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$4.1k @ 68.3¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$691 @ 22.4¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?Lost
Yes$23 @ 5.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on July 11?Won
No$127 @ 87.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on July 11?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$94 @ 47.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$160 @ 80.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$30 @ 15.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 6?Lost
No$15 @ 37.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 6?Won
Yes$24 @ 28.3¢
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on July 4?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?Won
No$177 @ 88.4¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$340 @ 56.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$341 @ 49.5¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?Won
Yes$136 @ 68.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 4?Lost
No$933 @ 43.9¢
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionWon
No$41 @ 21.0¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Lost
No$78 @ 39.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 11?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 26?Lost
Yes$1 @ 26.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$206 @ 51.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$70 @ 35.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3?Won
No$705 @ 86.0¢
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$170 @ 84.9¢
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$57 @ 14.3¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$56 @ 28.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5?Won
No$64 @ 85.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 28?Won
No$362 @ 84.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 27?Lost
Yes$16 @ 7.3¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Won
No$156 @ 78.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	No	$568	71.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$179	89.6¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$143	78.0¢
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	Politics	No	$136	68.0¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	Yes	$64	32.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	No	$60	30.0¢
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Politics	No	$56	28.0¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	No	$36	18.1¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$28	3.5¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$19	9.7¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$8	4.0¢

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
No$568 @ 71.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$179 @ 89.6¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$143 @ 78.0¢
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?Politics
No$136 @ 68.0¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
Yes$64 @ 32.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
No$60 @ 30.0¢
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Politics
No$56 @ 28.0¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
No$36 @ 18.1¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$28 @ 3.5¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$19 @ 9.7¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$8 @ 4.0¢