0xa81e…03dc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa81eefec9c08fa157d855f1ac5caf8feab1903dc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.9pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

36% @ 31.0¢

Brier

0.087

Resolved

3500

Avg size

$206

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	33% (123/377)	+11%	377
Politics	56% (15/27)	+17%	27
Sports	47% (9/19)	-12%	19
Culture	83% (5/6)	-52%	6
Geopolitics	75% (3/4)	+2%	4
Tech	100% (2/2)	+21%	2
Science	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+1%	1

Other377 bets
Hit rate
33% (123/377)
ROI
+11%
Politics27 bets
Hit rate
56% (15/27)
ROI
+17%
Sports19 bets
Hit rate
47% (9/19)
ROI
-12%
Culture6 bets
Hit rate
83% (5/6)
ROI
-52%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+2%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+21%
Science2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+1%

Track record

36% hit · 158/438

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	$76	35.0¢	Lost
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$53.3k	99.9¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	No	$606	99.9¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	No	$589	99.6¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 30 million views on day 1?	No	$105	99.7¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1?	No	$186	99.4¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 55 million views on day 1?	No	$430	89.8¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 60 million views on day 1?	No	$2.2k	92.8¢	Lost
Will the median home value in the Austin, Texas metro area be greater than $420,000 by February 1?	No	$1.4k	89.2¢	Won
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $2.75 million and $3.0 million by December 16?	Yes	$122	0.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" while addressing the nation on December 17?	No	$43	42.8¢	Won
0x05ccbc3b…	No	$174	16.8¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$167	2.1¢	Lost
Will "The Best You Can" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)	No	$75	83.1¢	Won
Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025?	Yes	$15	0.2¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Will Vladislav Artemiev win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?	No	$94	81.7¢	Won
Will Vladislav Artemiev win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?	Yes	$324	3.6¢	Lost
Heat vs. Trail Blazers	Heat	$90	9.0¢	Lost
Heat vs. Trail Blazers	Trail Blazers	$90	9.0¢	Won
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $3.25 million and $3.5 million by December 16?	Yes	$13	0.1¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$709	5.8¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's latest video get 20–22 million views on day 1?	Yes	$2.9k	17.6¢	Lost
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?	Yes	$18	3.7¢	Lost
Will Yi Wei vs. Javokhir Sindarov end in a draw?	Yes	$335	67.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on December 17?	No	$8.0k	80.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on December 17?	Yes	$673	13.6¢	Lost
Magic vs. Heat	Heat	$90	9.0¢	Lost
Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1,130,000 and $1,230,000 by February 1?	Yes	$221	14.4¢	Lost
Will the fight go the distance?	Yes	$97	23.0¢	Lost
Will TheDev win the Defi App trading competition?	Yes	$21	1.7¢	Lost
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?	Yes	$391	1.4¢	Lost
Thunder vs. Timberwolves	Thunder	$90	9.0¢	Lost
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	No	$2.1k	29.0¢	Lost
Pacers vs. Celtics	Pacers	$90	9.0¢	Lost
Kings vs. 76ers	Kings	$90	9.0¢	Lost
Magic vs. Thunder	Magic	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Will David Anton Guijarro win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Odds of US strikes Iran in February over 50% by Feb 13?	Yes	$850	9.8¢	Lost
Will Daniil Dubov win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?	Yes	$18	1.0¢	Lost
Will "The Best You Can" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)	No	$24	80.7¢	Won
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela in 2025?	Yes	$335	0.9¢	Lost
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?	No	$11	3.0¢	Lost
Will Praggnanandhaa R win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?	No	$4.4k	87.0¢	Won
Will Leinier Dominguez Perez win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?	Yes	$17	0.3¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?	Yes	$93	1.9¢	Lost
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?	No	$4.8k	45.0¢	Lost
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?	Yes	$539	44.8¢	Won
Will Kirill Alekseenko win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?	Yes	$20	0.5¢	Lost
Will Lu Shanglei win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?	Yes	$8	0.2¢	Lost

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$76 @ 35.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$53.3k @ 99.9¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?Won
No$606 @ 99.9¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?Won
No$589 @ 99.6¢
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 30 million views on day 1?Won
No$105 @ 99.7¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1?Won
No$186 @ 99.4¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 55 million views on day 1?Won
No$430 @ 89.8¢
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 60 million views on day 1?Lost
No$2.2k @ 92.8¢
Will the median home value in the Austin, Texas metro area be greater than $420,000 by February 1?Won
No$1.4k @ 89.2¢
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $2.75 million and $3.0 million by December 16?Lost
Yes$122 @ 0.8¢
Will Trump say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" while addressing the nation on December 17?Won
No$43 @ 42.8¢
0x05ccbc3b…Lost
No$174 @ 16.8¢
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$167 @ 2.1¢
Will "The Best You Can" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)Won
No$75 @ 83.1¢
Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025?Lost
Yes$15 @ 0.2¢
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Will Vladislav Artemiev win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?Won
No$94 @ 81.7¢
Will Vladislav Artemiev win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?Lost
Yes$324 @ 3.6¢
Heat vs. Trail BlazersLost
Heat$90 @ 9.0¢
Heat vs. Trail BlazersWon
Trail Blazers$90 @ 9.0¢
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $3.25 million and $3.5 million by December 16?Lost
Yes$13 @ 0.1¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$709 @ 5.8¢
Will MrBeast's latest video get 20–22 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$2.9k @ 17.6¢
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?Lost
Yes$18 @ 3.7¢
Will Yi Wei vs. Javokhir Sindarov end in a draw?Lost
Yes$335 @ 67.0¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on December 17?Won
No$8.0k @ 80.7¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on December 17?Lost
Yes$673 @ 13.6¢
Magic vs. HeatLost
Heat$90 @ 9.0¢
Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1,130,000 and $1,230,000 by February 1?Lost
Yes$221 @ 14.4¢
Will the fight go the distance?Lost
Yes$97 @ 23.0¢
Will TheDev win the Defi App trading competition?Lost
Yes$21 @ 1.7¢
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?Lost
Yes$391 @ 1.4¢
Thunder vs. TimberwolvesLost
Thunder$90 @ 9.0¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$2.1k @ 29.0¢
Pacers vs. CelticsLost
Pacers$90 @ 9.0¢
Kings vs. 76ersLost
Kings$90 @ 9.0¢
Magic vs. ThunderLost
Magic$4 @ 0.4¢
Will David Anton Guijarro win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Odds of US strikes Iran in February over 50% by Feb 13?Lost
Yes$850 @ 9.8¢
Will Daniil Dubov win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?Lost
Yes$18 @ 1.0¢
Will "The Best You Can" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)Won
No$24 @ 80.7¢
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela in 2025?Lost
Yes$335 @ 0.9¢
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?Lost
No$11 @ 3.0¢
Will Praggnanandhaa R win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?Won
No$4.4k @ 87.0¢
Will Leinier Dominguez Perez win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?Lost
Yes$17 @ 0.3¢
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$93 @ 1.9¢
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?Lost
No$4.8k @ 45.0¢
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?Won
Yes$539 @ 44.8¢
Will Kirill Alekseenko win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?Lost
Yes$20 @ 0.5¢
Will Lu Shanglei win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5.4k	17.9¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	Yes	$4.9k	91.0¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.6k	26.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.1k	48.0¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2.1k	10.3¢
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Science	Yes	$995	20.0¢
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31?	Crypto	No	$613	55.7¢
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?	Culture	No	$567	89.3¢
Another crypto hack over $100m by October 31?	Crypto	No	$283	88.1¢
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$239	78.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$82	26.7¢
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?	Science	Yes	$60	8.1¢
Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$19	34.0¢
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	52.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$0	42.7¢
100kt meteor strike in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	3.0¢
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Science	Yes	$0	0.0¢

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$5.4k @ 17.9¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
Yes$4.9k @ 91.0¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
Yes$2.6k @ 26.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$2.1k @ 48.0¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
Yes$2.1k @ 10.3¢
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Science
Yes$995 @ 20.0¢
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31?Crypto
No$613 @ 55.7¢
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?Culture
No$567 @ 89.3¢
Another crypto hack over $100m by October 31?Crypto
No$283 @ 88.1¢
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?Politics
No$239 @ 78.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$82 @ 26.7¢
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?Science
Yes$60 @ 8.1¢
Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?Politics
Yes$19 @ 34.0¢
5kt meteor strike in 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 52.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$0 @ 42.7¢
100kt meteor strike in 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 3.0¢
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Science
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢