0xa81e…03dc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa81eefec9c08fa157d855f1ac5caf8feab1903dc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.0pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

83% @ 69.6¢

Brier

0.141

Resolved

241

Avg size

$455

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (8/16)	+23%	16
Politics	67% (2/3)	+40%	3
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+34%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+1%	1

Other16 bets
Hit rate
50% (8/16)
ROI
+23%
Politics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+40%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+34%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+1%

Track record

57% hit · 12/21

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$174	16.8¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Will Zhu Jiner win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?	No	$35	55.6¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$10.1k	82.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?	No	$879	30.0¢	Lost
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	$976	74.9¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$5.2k	75.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	$3.8k	75.4¢	Won
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$8	8.2¢	Lost
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Yes	$60	6.1¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	No	$1.2k	82.3¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	Yes	$58	3.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$65.9k	71.6¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$8.2k	64.6¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	Yes	$105	14.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	No	$3.3k	57.1¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	$599	59.9¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$22	1.9¢	Lost
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	$45	13.8¢	Won
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	$6.0k	82.3¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$88.7k	99.2¢	Won

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$174 @ 16.8¢
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Will Zhu Jiner win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament?Won
No$35 @ 55.6¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$10.1k @ 82.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?Lost
No$879 @ 30.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Won
No$976 @ 74.9¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$5.2k @ 75.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?Won
No$3.8k @ 75.4¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$8 @ 8.2¢
Netanyahu out by March 31?Lost
Yes$60 @ 6.1¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?Won
No$1.2k @ 82.3¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$58 @ 3.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$65.9k @ 71.6¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$8.2k @ 64.6¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$105 @ 14.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?Won
No$3.3k @ 57.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?Won
No$599 @ 59.9¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$22 @ 1.9¢
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?Won
Yes$45 @ 13.8¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Won
No$6.0k @ 82.3¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$88.7k @ 99.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$7.3k	42.7¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6.9k	23.9¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.6k	26.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.1k	48.0¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2.1k	10.3¢
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Science	Yes	$816	16.4¢
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Science	Yes	$491	14.6¢
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Science	Yes	$491	14.6¢
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?	Science	Yes	$60	8.1¢
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$37	6.4¢
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $3M before 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$35	42.8¢
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$14	4.3¢
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	52.0¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.9¢
100kt meteor strike in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$0	3.0¢

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$7.3k @ 42.7¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$6.9k @ 23.9¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
Yes$2.6k @ 26.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$2.1k @ 48.0¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
Yes$2.1k @ 10.3¢
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Science
Yes$816 @ 16.4¢
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Science
Yes$491 @ 14.6¢
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Science
Yes$491 @ 14.6¢
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?Science
Yes$60 @ 8.1¢
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$37 @ 6.4¢
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $3M before 2027?Crypto
Yes$35 @ 42.8¢
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$14 @ 4.3¢
5kt meteor strike in 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 52.0¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
100kt meteor strike in 2026?Tech
Yes$0 @ 3.0¢