0xa800…fa10

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa800a7737d611c165a745b50358fbf0fe87bfa10
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.8pp

ROI

+24%

Win rate

73% @ 57.7¢

Brier

0.185

Resolved

Avg size

$10

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	71% (35/49)	+29%	49
Politics	67% (6/9)	+7%	9
Tech	100% (1/1)	+47%	1
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other49 bets
Hit rate
71% (35/49)
ROI
+29%
Politics9 bets
Hit rate
67% (6/9)
ROI
+7%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+47%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

70% hit · 42/60

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Sam Altman say "Trump" or "Election" on The Tonight Show on December 8?	No	$10	68.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" or "Venezuela" 15+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?	No	$10	49.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Biden" during call with Service Members on November 27?	No	$2	20.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Easter" or "Egg" during Monday news conference?	Yes	$5	67.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Affordability" or "Affordable" at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?	Yes	$20	56.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Farmer" at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?	Yes	$19	77.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast say "Million" or "Billion" 7+ times at the NYT DealBook Summit?	Yes	$12	17.2¢	Won
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will Bryan Johnson say "Erection" while tripping balls?	Yes	$14	70.0¢	Lost
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$16	79.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 8+ at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?	No	$19	35.0¢	Lost
Will Sam Altman say "Terminator" or "Movie" on The Tonight Show on December 8?	No	$10	52.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast say "IPO" at the NYT DealBook Summit?	No	$5	50.0¢	Won
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	$7	69.0¢	Won
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	$10	41.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast say "Saudi Arabia" at the NYT DealBook Summit?	No	$5	44.0¢	Won
Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	$15	75.0¢	Lost
Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8?	No	$10	54.0¢	Won
Will Bryan Johnson say "Mushroom" 10+ times while tripping balls?	Yes	$43	86.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Nuclear" or "Skedaddle" during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?	Yes	$10	63.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during Monday news conference?	Yes	$5	63.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	$10	68.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?	No	$10	81.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Job" 5+ times at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?	Yes	$20	44.0¢	Won
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	$85	85.0¢	Won
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?	No	$31	87.0¢	Won
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$10	73.4¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?	Yes	$27	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Thanksgiving" 5+ times during call with Service Members on November 27?	Yes	$8	75.0¢	Won
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	Yes	$10	88.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Yes	$5	41.0¢	Won
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	$43	86.0¢	Won
Will Bryan Johnson say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while tripping balls?	Yes	$18	59.3¢	Lost
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	No	$5	52.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Dominance" or "Superiority" during Monday news conference?	Yes	$5	49.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Biden" during Monday news conference?	Yes	$5	64.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Peace" or "War" 3+ times during Monday news conference?	Yes	$6	74.0¢	Won
Will Bryan Johnson say "Trip Balls" or "Tripping Balls" while tripping balls?	Yes	$6	43.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?	No	$10	33.0¢	Lost
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$3	36.0¢	Won
Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$5	43.0¢	Lost
Will more people travel on Thanksgiving than last year?	Yes	$10	68.0¢	Won
Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	No	$10	89.3¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$2	34.0¢	Won
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?	No	$27	89.6¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	Yes	$5	12.0¢	Lost
Will BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$10	57.0¢	Won
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	No	$7	72.0¢	Won
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?	Yes	$5	62.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast say "Feastable" or "Chocolate" 8+ times at the NYT DealBook Summit?	No	$9	89.0¢	Won

Will Sam Altman say "Trump" or "Election" on The Tonight Show on December 8?Won
No$10 @ 68.0¢
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" or "Venezuela" 15+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?Won
No$10 @ 49.0¢
Will Trump say "Biden" during call with Service Members on November 27?Lost
No$2 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump say "Easter" or "Egg" during Monday news conference?Won
Yes$5 @ 67.0¢
Will Trump say "Affordability" or "Affordable" at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?Won
Yes$20 @ 56.0¢
Will Trump say "Farmer" at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?Won
Yes$19 @ 77.0¢
Will MrBeast say "Million" or "Billion" 7+ times at the NYT DealBook Summit?Won
Yes$12 @ 17.2¢
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will Bryan Johnson say "Erection" while tripping balls?Lost
Yes$14 @ 70.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$16 @ 79.0¢
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 8+ at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?Lost
No$19 @ 35.0¢
Will Sam Altman say "Terminator" or "Movie" on The Tonight Show on December 8?Won
No$10 @ 52.0¢
Will MrBeast say "IPO" at the NYT DealBook Summit?Won
No$5 @ 50.0¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Won
No$7 @ 69.0¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Lost
Yes$10 @ 41.0¢
Will MrBeast say "Saudi Arabia" at the NYT DealBook Summit?Won
No$5 @ 44.0¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Lost
No$15 @ 75.0¢
Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8?Won
No$10 @ 54.0¢
Will Bryan Johnson say "Mushroom" 10+ times while tripping balls?Won
Yes$43 @ 86.0¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear" or "Skedaddle" during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?Won
Yes$10 @ 63.0¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during Monday news conference?Won
Yes$5 @ 63.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Won
Yes$10 @ 68.0¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?Won
No$10 @ 81.0¢
Will Trump say "Job" 5+ times at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?Won
Yes$20 @ 44.0¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$85 @ 85.0¢
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?Won
No$31 @ 87.0¢
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
Yes$10 @ 73.4¢
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?Won
Yes$27 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump say "Thanksgiving" 5+ times during call with Service Members on November 27?Won
Yes$8 @ 75.0¢
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?Won
Yes$10 @ 88.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Won
Yes$5 @ 41.0¢
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
No$43 @ 86.0¢
Will Bryan Johnson say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while tripping balls?Lost
Yes$18 @ 59.3¢
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?Lost
No$5 @ 52.2¢
Will Trump say "Dominance" or "Superiority" during Monday news conference?Lost
Yes$5 @ 49.0¢
Will Trump say "Biden" during Monday news conference?Won
Yes$5 @ 64.0¢
Will Trump say "Peace" or "War" 3+ times during Monday news conference?Won
Yes$6 @ 74.0¢
Will Bryan Johnson say "Trip Balls" or "Tripping Balls" while tripping balls?Lost
Yes$6 @ 43.0¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?Lost
No$10 @ 33.0¢
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 36.0¢
Will Grüne win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?Lost
Yes$5 @ 43.0¢
Will more people travel on Thanksgiving than last year?Won
Yes$10 @ 68.0¢
Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?Won
No$10 @ 89.3¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$2 @ 34.0¢
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$27 @ 89.6¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 12.0¢
Will BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?Won
Yes$10 @ 57.0¢
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?Won
No$7 @ 72.0¢
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 62.0¢
Will MrBeast say "Feastable" or "Chocolate" 8+ times at the NYT DealBook Summit?Won
No$9 @ 89.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$50	90.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$30	72.0¢
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$13	81.0¢
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11	10.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$10	83.3¢
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Politics	No	$5	55.0¢
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	Tech	Yes	$1	51.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$50 @ 90.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$30 @ 72.0¢
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$13 @ 81.0¢
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$11 @ 10.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$10 @ 83.3¢
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Politics
No$5 @ 55.0¢
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?Tech
Yes$1 @ 51.0¢