0xa794…42ad

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa794b8eee315d8adff4751a39355e7bd72f142ad
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+11.4pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

46% @ 34.2¢

Brier

0.265

Resolved

347

Avg size

$72

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	49% (19/39)	+3%	39
Tech	27% (4/15)	-34%	15
Politics	33% (4/12)	+100%	12
Geopolitics	25% (1/4)	+13%	4
Crypto	100% (4/4)	+100%	4
Culture	100% (1/1)	+61%	1

Other39 bets
Hit rate
49% (19/39)
ROI
+3%
Tech15 bets
Hit rate
27% (4/15)
ROI
-34%
Politics12 bets
Hit rate
33% (4/12)
ROI
+100%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
+13%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+61%

Track record

44% hit · 33/75

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$63	63.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$702	52.7¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$403	47.9¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?	No	$146	20.0¢	Lost
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	$468	87.9¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$459	27.0¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	Yes	$860	86.0¢	Won
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	$745	75.4¢	Won
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	No	$83	15.1¢	Lost
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	$239	55.7¢	Lost
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22?	No	$48	1.9¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$164	25.1¢	Lost
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	$407	79.9¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	Yes	$12	12.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$110	11.0¢	Won
Mezo FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	$24	69.9¢	Won
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	$11	59.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$140	28.0¢	Lost
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	No	$106	5.3¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	$51	17.0¢	Lost
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?	Yes	$75	15.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	No	$16	16.0¢	Lost
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?	No	$2.4k	71.1¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?	No	$9	1.4¢	Lost
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	$72	18.0¢	Won
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 70m?	No	$335	67.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$53	6.5¢	Lost
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	$994	71.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	$348	87.0¢	Won
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	$852	71.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?	Yes	$200	10.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	No	$272	24.0¢	Lost
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	$130	13.0¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Yes	$264	14.5¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?	Yes	$468	66.9¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$46	3.0¢	Lost
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	$14	22.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	$51	21.2¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	$26	26.0¢	Lost
Will ECDSA.fail get at least 40% ahead of Google’s classified circuit by June 30, 2026?	No	$0	2.1¢	Lost
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?	No	$26	19.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?	Yes	$35	7.0¢	Lost
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?	Yes	$120	48.0¢	Lost
Over $30M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	No	$356	29.3¢	Won
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	$72	36.0¢	Won
Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	Yes	$136	62.0¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Yes	$13	1.3¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$504	21.3¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	$101	40.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	$49	15.9¢	Lost

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$63 @ 63.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$702 @ 52.7¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$403 @ 47.9¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$146 @ 20.0¢
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?Lost
No$468 @ 87.9¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$459 @ 27.0¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Won
Yes$860 @ 86.0¢
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?Won
No$745 @ 75.4¢
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Lost
No$83 @ 15.1¢
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?Lost
No$239 @ 55.7¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22?Lost
No$48 @ 1.9¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$164 @ 25.1¢
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?Won
No$407 @ 79.9¢
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 12.0¢
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
Yes$110 @ 11.0¢
Mezo FDV above $50M one day after launch?Won
Yes$24 @ 69.9¢
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Won
No$11 @ 59.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$140 @ 28.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?Lost
No$106 @ 5.3¢
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Lost
Yes$51 @ 17.0¢
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?Won
Yes$75 @ 15.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?Lost
No$16 @ 16.0¢
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?Lost
No$2.4k @ 71.1¢
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?Lost
No$9 @ 1.4¢
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?Won
No$72 @ 18.0¢
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 70m?Won
No$335 @ 67.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$53 @ 6.5¢
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Won
Yes$994 @ 71.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?Won
No$348 @ 87.0¢
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?Won
No$852 @ 71.0¢
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?Won
Yes$200 @ 10.0¢
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$272 @ 24.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$130 @ 13.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Lost
Yes$264 @ 14.5¢
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?Won
Yes$468 @ 66.9¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$46 @ 3.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 22.0¢
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?Lost
No$51 @ 21.2¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
No$26 @ 26.0¢
Will ECDSA.fail get at least 40% ahead of Google’s classified circuit by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 2.1¢
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?Won
No$26 @ 19.0¢
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?Lost
Yes$35 @ 7.0¢
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?Lost
Yes$120 @ 48.0¢
Over $30M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Won
No$356 @ 29.3¢
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?Won
No$72 @ 36.0¢
Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" be #1 Box Office this weekend?Won
Yes$136 @ 62.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 1.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$504 @ 21.3¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Lost
No$101 @ 40.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
No$49 @ 15.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.6k	36.3¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$628	89.7¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$500	50.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$500	50.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$400	16.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?	Culture	Yes	$365	36.5¢
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$330	33.0¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Tech	No	$278	79.8¢
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$250	48.5¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$153	39.1¢
Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" be #1 Box Office this weekend?	Culture	Yes	$133	62.0¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$123	72.4¢
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$91	90.0¢
Over $40M committed to the Jumper public sale?	Crypto	No	$69	34.0¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$54	76.7¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Tech	No	$21	24.1¢

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1.6k @ 36.3¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?Tech
Yes$628 @ 89.7¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$500 @ 50.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$500 @ 50.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$400 @ 16.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?Culture
Yes$365 @ 36.5¢
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?Tech
Yes$330 @ 33.0¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Tech
No$278 @ 79.8¢
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$250 @ 48.5¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Tech
Yes$153 @ 39.1¢
Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" be #1 Box Office this weekend?Culture
Yes$133 @ 62.0¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Tech
Yes$123 @ 72.4¢
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$91 @ 90.0¢
Over $40M committed to the Jumper public sale?Crypto
No$69 @ 34.0¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$54 @ 76.7¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Tech
No$21 @ 24.1¢