0xa539…c217

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa539ff965fc2f5afc37e140c66c6a773091cc217
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+15.3pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

46% @ 30.5¢

Brier

0.186

Resolved

155

Avg size

$41

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	51% (22/43)	+16%	43
Sports	19% (4/21)	-36%	21
Tech	0% (0/7)	-100%	7
Politics	29% (2/7)	+63%	7
Geopolitics	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Economy	67% (2/3)	+134%	3
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+38%	3
Business	50% (1/2)	+56%	2

Other43 bets
Hit rate
51% (22/43)
ROI
+16%
Sports21 bets
Hit rate
19% (4/21)
ROI
-36%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/7)
ROI
-100%
Politics7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
+63%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+134%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+38%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+56%

Track record

37% hit · 33/89

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Lakers vs. Heat	Lakers	$8	34.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$31	15.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?	Yes	$30	33.3¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$1	4.5¢	Lost
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?	No	$31	32.5¢	Lost
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	$5	9.0¢	Lost
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	$10	8.0¢	Lost
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election?	Yes	$1	2.9¢	Lost
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	$13	31.0¢	Lost
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	No	$573	81.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Karoline Leavitt" during Women's History Month event?	No	$37	21.7¢	Won
Will Christian Pulisic score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	11.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?	Yes	$25	25.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$178	89.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?	No	$106	53.0¢	Won
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May?	Yes	$116	58.0¢	Won
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$514	57.0¢	Won
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	$2	10.0¢	Lost
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$3	1.1¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	$297	48.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$4	19.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	Yes	$10	46.5¢	Won
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	Yes	$137	20.0¢	Lost
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	$326	66.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?	Yes	$22	14.7¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?	Yes	$11	55.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	Yes	$7	14.0¢	Lost
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers	Miami Hurricanes	$291	26.0¢	Lost
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Norway vs England FIFA World Cup Match?	Yes	$8	40.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$4	3.0¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?	Yes	$1	9.0¢	Lost
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?	Yes	$13	25.0¢	Lost
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$2	2.4¢	Lost
Will Maxx Crosby play for Cincinnati Bengals next?	Yes	$2	7.3¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$103	42.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?	Yes	$73	36.5¢	Lost
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Colombia?	Yes	$26	17.0¢	Lost
Will John Stones be in England's Starting 11?	No	$6	30.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$57	45.0¢	Won
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?	Yes	$43	86.0¢	Won
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	$156	25.0¢	Won
Will JD Vance say "CNN" during his rally in North Carolina?	Yes	$8	13.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$330	55.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	Yes	$13	26.0¢	Won
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k?	Yes	$7	7.3¢	Lost
Will Lorenzo Radice win the 2026 Legnano mayoral election?	No	$6	31.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?	Yes	$52	26.0¢	Lost

Lakers vs. HeatWon
Lakers$8 @ 34.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$31 @ 15.0¢
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$30 @ 33.3¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.5¢
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Lost
No$31 @ 32.5¢
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.0¢
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$10 @ 8.0¢
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May?Lost
Yes$13 @ 31.0¢
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Won
No$573 @ 81.8¢
Will Trump say "Karoline Leavitt" during Women's History Month event?Won
No$37 @ 21.7¢
Will Christian Pulisic score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?Won
Yes$25 @ 25.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$178 @ 89.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?Won
No$106 @ 53.0¢
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May?Won
Yes$116 @ 58.0¢
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?Won
Yes$514 @ 57.0¢
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 10.0¢
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.1¢
Will LeBron James play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?Lost
Yes$297 @ 48.0¢
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 19.0¢
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 46.5¢
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?Lost
Yes$137 @ 20.0¢
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?Won
Yes$326 @ 66.0¢
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 14.7¢
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?Won
Yes$11 @ 55.0¢
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 14.0¢
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue BoilermakersLost
Miami Hurricanes$291 @ 26.0¢
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Norway vs England FIFA World Cup Match?Won
Yes$8 @ 40.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.0¢
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?Lost
Yes$13 @ 25.0¢
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.4¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Cincinnati Bengals next?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.3¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$103 @ 42.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?Lost
Yes$73 @ 36.5¢
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Colombia?Lost
Yes$26 @ 17.0¢
Will John Stones be in England's Starting 11?Lost
No$6 @ 30.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$57 @ 45.0¢
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?Won
Yes$43 @ 86.0¢
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?Won
Yes$156 @ 25.0¢
Will JD Vance say "CNN" during his rally in North Carolina?Lost
Yes$8 @ 13.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$330 @ 55.0¢
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?Won
Yes$13 @ 26.0¢
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.3¢
Will Lorenzo Radice win the 2026 Legnano mayoral election?Lost
No$6 @ 31.0¢
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$52 @ 26.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$50	9.8¢
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$16	54.0¢

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$50 @ 9.8¢
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?Tech
Yes$16 @ 54.0¢