← Smart money
0xa52b…9480
SharpROI
+15%
Win rate
98%
Brier
0.028
Resolved
254
Avg size
$694
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +3% | 1 |
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +3%
Track record
100% hit · 1/1| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | $26.4k | 97.0¢ | Won |
- No$26.4k @ 97.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $85.1k | 92.0¢ |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Tech | Yes | $34.7k | 99.0¢ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Politics | No | $32.3k | 93.2¢ |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | Tech | Yes | $14.7k | 94.8¢ |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | Yes | $12.9k | 50.0¢ |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | No | $12.9k | 50.0¢ |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Tech | Yes | $5.4k | 80.1¢ |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $1.0k | 75.6¢ |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Politics | Yes | $554 | 65.6¢ |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Politics | Yes | $487 | 86.7¢ |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Economy | No | $42 | 64.0¢ |
- Yes$85.1k @ 92.0¢
- Yes$34.7k @ 99.0¢
- No$32.3k @ 93.2¢
- Yes$14.7k @ 94.8¢
- Yes$12.9k @ 50.0¢
- No$12.9k @ 50.0¢
- Yes$5.4k @ 80.1¢
- Yes$1.0k @ 75.6¢
- Yes$554 @ 65.6¢
- Yes$487 @ 86.7¢
- Fed rate hike in 2026?EconomyNo$42 @ 64.0¢