0xa525…1e7b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa5259eba63e2825bcb3ecf0be9f3a2e9fc321e7b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+28.2pp

ROI

+175%

Win rate

56% @ 27.3¢

Brier

0.353

Resolved

218

Avg size

$24

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	23% (7/31)	+3%	31
Politics	100% (2/2)	+9%	2
Culture	100% (1/1)	+442%	1

Other31 bets
Hit rate
23% (7/31)
ROI
+3%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+9%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+442%

Track record

29% hit · 10/34

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$10	33.0¢	Lost
Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%?	Yes	$78	47.7¢	Lost
Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$253	56.1¢	Lost
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	$10	7.0¢	Lost
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	No	$101	33.0¢	Lost
Will Peggy Flanagan win Ramsey County in the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary?	Yes	$57	64.2¢	Won
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$10	50.0¢	Lost
Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	No	$81	82.0¢	Won
Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$8	20.0¢	Lost
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 15-20%?	Yes	$37	37.0¢	Lost
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$35	6.0¢	Lost
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$53	78.0¢	Won
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$885	45.7¢	Won
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025?	Yes	$5	33.0¢	Lost
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5	Under	$87	43.0¢	Lost
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$23	32.9¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$25	62.0¢	Won
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Motion Picture – Animated at the 83rd Golden Globes?	No	$2	12.7¢	Lost
Will Jamaica qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$503	71.6¢	Won
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07?	Yes	$10	66.0¢	Lost
Will Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) win Best Actor – Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?	Yes	$2	13.0¢	Lost
Will Velichie (Velichie) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	No	$178	78.9¢	Won
Will Velichie (Velichie) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$15	13.7¢	Lost
Will Burgas host Eurovision 2027?	Yes	$2.1k	18.5¢	Won
Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	$85	63.0¢	Won
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 5-10%?	Yes	$15	15.0¢	Lost
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$249	22.6¢	Lost
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$130	32.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?	Yes	$1	70.2¢	Lost
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	No	$59	8.0¢	Lost
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$82	0.4¢	Lost
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	No	$89	27.8¢	Lost
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?	No	$244	96.0¢	Won

Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$10 @ 33.0¢
Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Lost
No$3 @ 3.0¢
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%?Lost
Yes$78 @ 47.7¢
Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$253 @ 56.1¢
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers Lost
Lakers$10 @ 7.0¢
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Lost
No$101 @ 33.0¢
Will Peggy Flanagan win Ramsey County in the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary?Won
Yes$57 @ 64.2¢
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$10 @ 50.0¢
Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Won
No$81 @ 82.0¢
Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$8 @ 20.0¢
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 15-20%?Lost
Yes$37 @ 37.0¢
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 6.0¢
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$53 @ 78.0¢
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$885 @ 45.7¢
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025?Lost
Yes$5 @ 33.0¢
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5Lost
Under$87 @ 43.0¢
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$23 @ 32.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$25 @ 62.0¢
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Motion Picture – Animated at the 83rd Golden Globes?Lost
No$2 @ 12.7¢
Will Jamaica qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$503 @ 71.6¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07?Lost
Yes$10 @ 66.0¢
Will Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) win Best Actor – Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?Lost
Yes$2 @ 13.0¢
Will Velichie (Velichie) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Won
No$178 @ 78.9¢
Will Velichie (Velichie) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$15 @ 13.7¢
Will Burgas host Eurovision 2027?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 18.5¢
Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Won
No$85 @ 63.0¢
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 5-10%?Lost
Yes$15 @ 15.0¢
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$249 @ 22.6¢
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$130 @ 32.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 70.2¢
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?Lost
No$59 @ 8.0¢
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$82 @ 0.4¢
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Lost
No$89 @ 27.8¢
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?Won
No$244 @ 96.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Politics	No	$107	21.5¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$20	20.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$14	2.8¢
Maduro guilty of all counts?	Politics	No	$10	63.0¢
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	2.7¢
Will the Republican Party win the CA-34 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.0¢
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Culture	No	$1	97.2¢
Will the Republican Party win the WA-01 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$0	2.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the ND-AL House seat?	Politics	Yes	$0	3.2¢

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics
No$107 @ 21.5¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$14 @ 2.8¢
Maduro guilty of all counts?Politics
No$10 @ 63.0¢
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 2.7¢
Will the Republican Party win the CA-34 House seat?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Culture
No$1 @ 97.2¢
Will the Republican Party win the WA-01 House seat?Politics
Yes$0 @ 2.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the ND-AL House seat?Politics
Yes$0 @ 3.2¢