0xa414…905e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa41425fd3fc70f4d5fa61081b176f14a98b4905e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.8pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

58% @ 47.3¢

Brier

0.149

Resolved

105

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	40% (19/48)	+9%	48
Sports	73% (11/15)	+46%	15
Science	30% (3/10)	-67%	10
Politics	100% (2/2)	+40%	2
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+57%	1

Other48 bets
Hit rate
40% (19/48)
ROI
+9%
Sports15 bets
Hit rate
73% (11/15)
ROI
+46%
Science10 bets
Hit rate
30% (3/10)
ROI
-67%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+40%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+57%

Track record

47% hit · 36/76

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	$1	45.0¢	Lost
Dominican Republic vs. Nicaragua: O/U 1.5	Over	$1	73.0¢	Won
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 8?	Yes	$1	87.0¢	Won
Bulgaria vs. Luxembourg: O/U 1.5	Over	$3	65.0¢	Won
Spread: CSD Municipal (-2.5)	CSD Suchitepéquez	$1	75.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 5?	Yes	$1	24.0¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 4?	No	$1	83.0¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 4?	Yes	$1	84.0¢	Lost
Vila Nova FC vs. Londrina EC: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	$3	68.6¢	Won
Bulgaria vs. Luxembourg: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	$2	62.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$3	63.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 8?	Yes	$2	20.9¢	Won
Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	$1	37.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 22?	Yes	$1	21.0¢	Won
Columbus Crew vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 4.5	Under	$4	68.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 20?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 5?	Yes	$1	5.8¢	Lost
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	No	$1	81.1¢	Lost
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	$2	28.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 21?	Yes	$1	5.3¢	Lost
Vila Nova FC vs. Londrina EC: O/U 3.5	Under	$3	75.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on August 13?	Yes	$4	53.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 6?	Yes	$1	16.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$28	89.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on May 1?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on May 31?	Yes	$2	7.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 20?	No	$1	83.0¢	Won
Poland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	Under	$4	73.0¢	Won
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	$1	17.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 2?	Yes	$1	1.9¢	Lost
Portugal vs. Wales: O/U 3.5	Under	$1	48.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15?	Yes	$1	4.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15?	No	$1	9.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15?	Yes	$1	86.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$2	77.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 14?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Won
Spread: Haiti (-1.5)	Trinidad and Tobago	$1	63.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on April 24?	Yes	$1	23.8¢	Lost
Spread: Odense BK (-2.5)	FC København	$1	51.0¢	Won
Spread: Odense BK (-2.5)	Odense BK	$1	50.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 2?	Yes	$1	12.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on April 26?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance	Brazil	$2	14.0¢	Lost
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$1	31.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9?	Yes	$1	2.8¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$2	41.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 12?	Yes	$1	63.0¢	Won
Portugal vs. Wales: O/U 4.5	Under	$4	69.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on May 17?	Yes	$1	35.0¢	Won

Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Lost
No$1 @ 45.0¢
Dominican Republic vs. Nicaragua: O/U 1.5Won
Over$1 @ 73.0¢
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 8?Won
Yes$1 @ 87.0¢
Bulgaria vs. Luxembourg: O/U 1.5Won
Over$3 @ 65.0¢
Spread: CSD Municipal (-2.5)Lost
CSD Suchitepéquez$1 @ 75.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 5?Lost
Yes$1 @ 24.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 4?Won
No$1 @ 83.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 4?Lost
Yes$1 @ 84.0¢
Vila Nova FC vs. Londrina EC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Won
Over$3 @ 68.6¢
Bulgaria vs. Luxembourg: 1st Half O/U 0.5Won
Over$2 @ 62.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$3 @ 63.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 8?Won
Yes$2 @ 20.9¢
Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Won
Yes$1 @ 37.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 22?Won
Yes$1 @ 21.0¢
Columbus Crew vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 4.5Won
Under$4 @ 68.5¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 20?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 5?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.8¢
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?Lost
No$1 @ 81.1¢
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?Won
Yes$2 @ 28.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.3¢
Vila Nova FC vs. Londrina EC: O/U 3.5Won
Under$3 @ 75.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on August 13?Won
Yes$4 @ 53.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 6?Won
Yes$1 @ 16.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$28 @ 89.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on May 1?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on May 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 20?Won
No$1 @ 83.0¢
Poland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5Won
Under$4 @ 73.0¢
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Lost
No$1 @ 17.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 2?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.9¢
Portugal vs. Wales: O/U 3.5Won
Under$1 @ 48.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15?Lost
No$1 @ 9.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15?Won
Yes$1 @ 86.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$2 @ 77.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 14?Won
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
Spread: Haiti (-1.5)Won
Trinidad and Tobago$1 @ 63.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on April 24?Lost
Yes$1 @ 23.8¢
Spread: Odense BK (-2.5)Won
FC København$1 @ 51.0¢
Spread: Odense BK (-2.5)Lost
Odense BK$1 @ 50.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 2?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.3¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on April 26?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to AdvanceLost
Brazil$2 @ 14.0¢
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 31.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
No$2 @ 41.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 12?Won
Yes$1 @ 63.0¢
Portugal vs. Wales: O/U 4.5Won
Under$4 @ 69.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on May 17?Won
Yes$1 @ 35.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$23	81.8¢
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$5	23.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$4	93.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	No	$4	86.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$3	98.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	No	$2	93.0¢
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$1	10.4¢

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$23 @ 81.8¢
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$5 @ 23.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$4 @ 93.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
No$4 @ 86.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$3 @ 98.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
No$2 @ 93.0¢
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$1 @ 10.4¢