← Smart money
0xa3c8…d1b6
ProfitableEdge
+48.9pp
ROI
+79%
Win rate
92% @ 43.0¢
Brier
0.364
Resolved
135
Avg size
$75
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 40% (2/5) | +125% | 5 |
| Politics | 80% (4/5) | +80% | 5 |
| Other | 60% (3/5) | -14% | 5 |
- Sports5 bets
- Hit rate
- 40% (2/5)
- ROI
- +125%
- Politics5 bets
- Hit rate
- 80% (4/5)
- ROI
- +80%
- Other5 bets
- Hit rate
- 60% (3/5)
- ROI
- -14%
Track record
60% hit · 9/15| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | $127 | 84.6¢ | Lost |
| Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance | Spain | $315 | 63.0¢ | Won |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | $132 | 11.5¢ | Lost |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | Yes | $244 | 53.9¢ | Lost |
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance | Colombia | $309 | 61.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | $943 | 14.1¢ | Won |
| Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | Spain | $313 | 78.3¢ | Won |
| Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | No | $20 | 72.5¢ | Won |
| Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? | Yes | $127 | 48.0¢ | Won |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | $1.6k | 31.3¢ | Lost |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | $667 | 33.4¢ | Won |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | Yes | $336 | 84.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | $1.3k | 79.8¢ | Won |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? | Yes | $432 | 76.0¢ | Won |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | $3.4k | 54.7¢ | Won |
- Yes$127 @ 84.6¢
- Spain$315 @ 63.0¢
- Yes$132 @ 11.5¢
- Yes$244 @ 53.9¢
- Colombia$309 @ 61.0¢
- Yes$943 @ 14.1¢
- Spain$313 @ 78.3¢
- No$20 @ 72.5¢
- Yes$127 @ 48.0¢
- Yes$1.6k @ 31.3¢
- Yes$667 @ 33.4¢
- Yes$336 @ 84.0¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 79.8¢
- Yes$432 @ 76.0¢
- Yes$3.4k @ 54.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31? | Geopolitics | Yes | $281 | 72.5¢ |
- Yes$281 @ 72.5¢