0xa3a7…dcf2

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa3a72234ab3a2be823a012bc464d46b568a1dcf2
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.1pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

65% @ 53.2¢

Brier

0.160

Resolved

121

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	61% (14/23)	+75%	23
Politics	50% (7/14)	+10%	14
Sports	67% (2/3)	-14%	3
Geopolitics	67% (2/3)	+22%	3
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Business	100% (1/1)	+20%	1

Other23 bets
Hit rate
61% (14/23)
ROI
+75%
Politics14 bets
Hit rate
50% (7/14)
ROI
+10%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-14%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+22%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+20%

Track record

58% hit · 26/45

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings	Punjab Kings	$5	57.0¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$3	61.0¢	Won
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	$5	42.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$79	73.1¢	Won
Hornets vs. Magic	Magic	$5	41.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	$2	21.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on May 1?	Yes	$3	63.0¢	Won
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17?	No	$2	38.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$21	83.1¢	Won
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	BNK FEARX	$5	65.0¢	Won
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	$3	58.0¢	Lost
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels	New York Mets	$5	39.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$33	73.3¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$4	37.5¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$5	15.0¢	Lost
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	$5	46.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	$1	2.7¢	Lost
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$5	3.2¢	Lost
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	$2	67.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$6	58.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$14	71.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$2	33.8¢	Lost
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?	Yes	$5	67.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	2.5¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	8.4¢	Won
San Diego FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 1.5	Over	$5	77.0¢	Won
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$1	17.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	$2	33.0¢	Won
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	83.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$11	74.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$10	23.2¢	Lost
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	$2	77.0¢	Won
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	$8	21.5¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	$2	31.3¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	$3	61.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$10	60.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	38.6¢	Lost
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	$5	57.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Won
Jiujiang: Adam Walton vs Alexis Galarneau	Alexis Galarneau	$1	13.0¢	Lost
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	$5	69.0¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$9	82.4¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$2	20.2¢	Lost
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$1	34.0¢	Lost

Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab KingsLost
Punjab Kings$5 @ 57.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$3 @ 61.0¢
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?Won
Yes$5 @ 42.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$79 @ 73.1¢
Hornets vs. MagicWon
Magic$5 @ 41.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
Yes$2 @ 21.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on May 1?Won
Yes$3 @ 63.0¢
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17?Won
No$2 @ 38.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$21 @ 83.1¢
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2Won
BNK FEARX$5 @ 65.0¢
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03?Lost
Yes$3 @ 58.0¢
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles AngelsLost
New York Mets$5 @ 39.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$33 @ 73.3¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$4 @ 37.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 15.0¢
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03?Won
Yes$5 @ 46.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.2¢
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
No$2 @ 67.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$6 @ 58.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$14 @ 71.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$2 @ 33.8¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?Lost
Yes$5 @ 67.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 2.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 8.4¢
San Diego FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 1.5Won
Over$5 @ 77.0¢
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 17.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 33.0¢
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 83.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
No$11 @ 74.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 23.2¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
No$2 @ 77.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$8 @ 21.5¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 31.3¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?Won
Yes$3 @ 61.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 60.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 38.6¢
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-03?Won
Yes$5 @ 57.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Jiujiang: Adam Walton vs Alexis GalarneauLost
Alexis Galarneau$1 @ 13.0¢
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Won
No$5 @ 69.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$9 @ 82.4¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.2¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
No$1 @ 34.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$22	87.0¢

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$22 @ 87.0¢