0xa28e…b220

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa28e6b65cb2ed4e3977725f41beb4892fd8cb220
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+16.2pp

ROI

+58%

Win rate

56% @ 39.9¢

Brier

0.169

Resolved

575

Avg size

$21

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	44% (37/84)	+41%	84
Politics	27% (6/22)	+119%	22
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other84 bets
Hit rate
44% (37/84)
ROI
+41%
Politics22 bets
Hit rate
27% (6/22)
ROI
+119%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

40% hit · 43/108

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?	Yes	$12	89.0¢	Won
Kuopion PS vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 2.5	Over	$23	24.0¢	Lost
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?	Yes	$148	29.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Resolve" or "Hammer" during WEF Address on January 21?	Yes	$31	50.3¢	Lost
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?	Yes	$71	14.2¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31?	Yes	$40	8.0¢	Lost
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	Yes	$45	36.0¢	Lost
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$85	27.2¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$75	41.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tariff" during meetings with Slovak Prime Minister?	Yes	$26	60.8¢	Lost
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?	Yes	$257	51.4¢	Won
Will Trump sue Michael Wolff by March 31?	Yes	$21	8.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Green New Scam" during WEF Address on January 21?	Yes	$24	38.6¢	Won
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04?	Yes	$66	53.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$45	22.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$598	14.1¢	Lost
X banned in U.K. by March 31?	Yes	$56	14.9¢	Lost
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	Yes	$80	31.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	$13	35.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color?	Yes	$88	35.2¢	Lost
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	Yes	$35	14.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$498	65.7¢	Won
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	Yes	$263	34.1¢	Lost
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?	Yes	$103	38.3¢	Lost
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	Yes	$36	29.0¢	Won
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$41	33.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Gianni" or "Infantino" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?	Yes	$76	60.8¢	Won
QatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14?	No	$138	55.4¢	Won
Will Trump say "Woke" or "DEI" during WEF Address on January 21?	Yes	$28	44.0¢	Lost
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-02-15?	Yes	$51	57.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hottest" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?	Yes	$146	65.4¢	Won
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	6.6¢	Lost
England vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 0.5	Over	$50	60.8¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	$158	31.7¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?	Yes	$100	40.0¢	Lost
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by January 31?	Yes	$35	3.5¢	Lost
Will Levante UD win on 2026-03-07?	No	$7	52.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$80	32.0¢	Won
Will Leavitt say "Nuclear" during the next press briefing?	Yes	$10	34.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	$8	3.6¢	Lost
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04?	Yes	$66	53.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$143	57.0¢	Won
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20?	Yes	$75	15.0¢	Won
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei	No	$277	55.4¢	Won
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$36	38.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$41	32.8¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$250	10.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$59	4.7¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	Yes	$69	12.5¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	Yes	$36	8.0¢	Won

Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?Won
Yes$12 @ 89.0¢
Kuopion PS vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$23 @ 24.0¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?Lost
Yes$148 @ 29.5¢
Will Trump say "Resolve" or "Hammer" during WEF Address on January 21?Lost
Yes$31 @ 50.3¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?Lost
Yes$71 @ 14.2¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? Lost
Yes$40 @ 8.0¢
Weed rescheduled by June 30?Lost
Yes$45 @ 36.0¢
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
Yes$85 @ 27.2¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Lost
Yes$75 @ 41.2¢
Will Trump say "Tariff" during meetings with Slovak Prime Minister?Lost
Yes$26 @ 60.8¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Won
Yes$257 @ 51.4¢
Will Trump sue Michael Wolff by March 31?Lost
Yes$21 @ 8.3¢
Will Trump say "Green New Scam" during WEF Address on January 21?Won
Yes$24 @ 38.6¢
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04?Lost
Yes$66 @ 53.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$45 @ 22.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$598 @ 14.1¢
X banned in U.K. by March 31?Lost
Yes$56 @ 14.9¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$80 @ 31.9¢
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during WHCA Dinner events?Lost
Yes$13 @ 35.0¢
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color?Lost
Yes$88 @ 35.2¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Lost
Yes$35 @ 14.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$498 @ 65.7¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?Lost
Yes$263 @ 34.1¢
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?Lost
Yes$103 @ 38.3¢
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?Won
Yes$36 @ 29.0¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$41 @ 33.0¢
Will Trump say "Gianni" or "Infantino" during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Won
Yes$76 @ 60.8¢
QatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14?Won
No$138 @ 55.4¢
Will Trump say "Woke" or "DEI" during WEF Address on January 21?Lost
Yes$28 @ 44.0¢
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-02-15?Won
Yes$51 @ 57.0¢
Will Trump say "Hottest" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?Won
Yes$146 @ 65.4¢
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 6.6¢
England vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 0.5Won
Over$50 @ 60.8¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Won
No$158 @ 31.7¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?Lost
Yes$100 @ 40.0¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by January 31?Lost
Yes$35 @ 3.5¢
Will Levante UD win on 2026-03-07?Won
No$7 @ 52.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$80 @ 32.0¢
Will Leavitt say "Nuclear" during the next press briefing?Lost
Yes$10 @ 34.0¢
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?Lost
Yes$8 @ 3.6¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04?Lost
Yes$66 @ 53.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$143 @ 57.0¢
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20?Won
Yes$75 @ 15.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: KhameneiWon
No$277 @ 55.4¢
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?Won
Yes$36 @ 38.0¢
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation?Lost
Yes$41 @ 32.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$250 @ 10.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$59 @ 4.7¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Lost
Yes$69 @ 12.5¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?Won
Yes$36 @ 8.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.0k	20.1¢
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$467	9.3¢
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$268	21.4¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$199	49.7¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$147	23.0¢
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$143	18.8¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$80	16.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$75	30.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$57	16.3¢
US congress stock trading ban before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$50	19.9¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$49	9.0¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$12	89.0¢

Russia x Ukraine Peace ComboGeopolitics
Yes$1.0k @ 20.1¢
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$467 @ 9.3¢
US strike on Mexico by December 31?Politics
Yes$268 @ 21.4¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$199 @ 49.7¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$147 @ 23.0¢
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Politics
Yes$143 @ 18.8¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$80 @ 16.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$75 @ 30.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?Politics
Yes$57 @ 16.3¢
US congress stock trading ban before 2027?Politics
Yes$50 @ 19.9¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?Politics
Yes$49 @ 9.0¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?Politics
Yes$12 @ 89.0¢