0xa277…1182

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa2770432a5e6bd24c347c976b0d815db1f2c1182
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+18.6pp

ROI

+50%

Win rate

72% @ 53.0¢

Brier

0.140

Resolved

222

Avg size

$52

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (14/28)	-7%	28
Tech	84% (16/19)	+104%	19
Geopolitics	86% (6/7)	+33%	7
Politics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other28 bets
Hit rate
50% (14/28)
ROI
-7%
Tech19 bets
Hit rate
84% (16/19)
ROI
+104%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
86% (6/7)
ROI
+33%
Politics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

65% hit · 36/55

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Moonshot be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$7	8.5¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$42	3.1¢	Lost
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?	No	$100	20.1¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?	No	$129	25.0¢	Won
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$261	57.2¢	Lost
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$56	17.9¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?	Yes	$3	33.0¢	Lost
Will any other model be the best AI model on September 28, 2026?	Yes	$257	30.3¢	Won
Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$375	70.6¢	Won
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	$320	54.4¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$382	56.6¢	Won
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	$1	1.4¢	Lost
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$106	65.8¢	Lost
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?	No	$100	55.1¢	Lost
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?	Yes	$345	82.9¢	Won
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	$4	73.0¢	Lost
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$652	47.9¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$203	57.9¢	Won
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$107	48.7¢	Lost
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$606	50.4¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$19	87.2¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?	Yes	$2	39.3¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in July?	Yes	$9	3.0¢	Lost
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	$151	89.3¢	Won
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September?	Yes	$431	74.3¢	Won
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$115	11.8¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 1 ChatGPT outage in September 2026?	No	$203	68.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$5	78.5¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$129	25.7¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?	No	$92	46.0¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$5	84.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	No	$254	55.2¢	Won
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$200	66.6¢	Won
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$152	36.1¢	Lost
Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?	Yes	$486	64.8¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$5	89.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?	No	$380	66.1¢	Won
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in July?	No	$223	79.0¢	Won
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in July?	Yes	$239	17.9¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	76.5¢	Won
Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 28, 2026?	No	$194	33.2¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	$3	61.0¢	Lost
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$80	19.3¢	Won
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	No	$570	29.7¢	Lost
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	Yes	$305	87.3¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day 5?	No	$70	61.1¢	Won
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	No	$86	86.3¢	Won
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	75.8¢	Won
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?	Yes	$65	74.5¢	Won

Will Moonshot be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
Yes$7 @ 8.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$42 @ 3.1¢
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 20.1¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?Won
No$129 @ 25.0¢
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
Yes$261 @ 57.2¢
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$56 @ 17.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 33.0¢
Will any other model be the best AI model on September 28, 2026?Won
Yes$257 @ 30.3¢
Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$375 @ 70.6¢
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Won
No$320 @ 54.4¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$382 @ 56.6¢
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$106 @ 65.8¢
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?Lost
No$100 @ 55.1¢
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?Won
Yes$345 @ 82.9¢
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 73.0¢
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$652 @ 47.9¢
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$203 @ 57.9¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$107 @ 48.7¢
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$606 @ 50.4¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
Yes$19 @ 87.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 39.3¢
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in July?Lost
Yes$9 @ 3.0¢
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
No$151 @ 89.3¢
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September?Won
Yes$431 @ 74.3¢
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$115 @ 11.8¢
Will there be exactly 1 ChatGPT outage in September 2026?Won
No$203 @ 68.0¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 78.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$129 @ 25.7¢
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?Won
No$92 @ 46.0¢
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 84.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Won
No$254 @ 55.2¢
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
Yes$200 @ 66.6¢
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$152 @ 36.1¢
Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?Won
Yes$486 @ 64.8¢
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 89.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?Won
No$380 @ 66.1¢
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in July?Won
No$223 @ 79.0¢
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in July?Lost
Yes$239 @ 17.9¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 76.5¢
Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 28, 2026?Won
No$194 @ 33.2¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
No$3 @ 61.0¢
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?Won
Yes$80 @ 19.3¢
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?Lost
No$570 @ 29.7¢
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?Won
Yes$305 @ 87.3¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 53.5 million views on day 5?Won
No$70 @ 61.1¢
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Won
No$86 @ 86.3¢
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 75.8¢
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?Won
Yes$65 @ 74.5¢

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