0xa221…7588

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa221f82c9752fae9d305c8c3d1c5cf153f407588
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+15.4pp

ROI

+44%

Win rate

51% @ 35.4¢

Brier

0.223

Resolved

Avg size

$56

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	43% (20/47)	+49%	47
Sports	67% (2/3)	+153%	3
Politics	33% (1/3)	-78%	3
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other47 bets
Hit rate
43% (20/47)
ROI
+49%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+153%
Politics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-78%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

42% hit · 23/55

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$50	42.7¢	Lost
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)	Hooker	$50	30.2¢	Lost
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Alex Pereira	$30	50.0¢	Lost
Makhachev Parlay - Islam Wins Submission & Fight Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds	Yes	$20	19.6¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 30?	Yes	$20	13.7¢	Lost
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)	Shevchenko	$56	56.0¢	Won
Miami vs. Indiana	Miami	$20	26.0¢	Lost
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$50	47.0¢	Won
Will Islam Makhachev win by KO or TKO?	Yes	$5	12.0¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$50	26.0¢	Won
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will LAR/CHI/BUF/SF/NE/HOU win their 2026 NFL Wild Card round games?	Yes	$20	40.4¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card)	Lerone Murphy	$50	33.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$250	30.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump say "Abraham Accords" during Syria President events on November 10?	Yes	$40	74.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$450	38.4¢	Won
Bills vs. Jaguars	Bills	$20	46.0¢	Won
Fight to Go the Distance?	Yes	$30	36.0¢	Won
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?	Yes	$55	26.8¢	Won
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)	Benoît Saint Denis	$101	57.0¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$154	29.0¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$50	57.0¢	Won
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	No	$100	32.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Syria President events on November 10?	Yes	$20	27.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?	Yes	$50	48.2¢	Lost
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?	No	$40	8.0¢	Lost
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?	Yes	$20	12.6¢	Lost
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)	Diego Lopes	$30	58.0¢	Won
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	No	$50	58.0¢	Lost
Will Leon Edwards win by KO or TKO?	Yes	$5	10.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	Yes	$10	16.0¢	Lost
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?	No	$50	54.8¢	Won
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?	Yes	$50	37.5¢	Lost
Will LAR/CHI/BUF/PHI/NE/HOU win their 2026 NFL Wild Card round games?	Yes	$20	22.8¢	Lost
0xa573400b…	Yes	$100	19.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$400	55.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?	Yes	$50	50.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?	Yes	$66	51.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?	Yes	$20	20.0¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$50	29.1¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?	No	$274	45.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "Alien" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	$20	21.0¢	Lost
Will BUF/SF/NE/LAR win their 2026 NFL Divisional Round games?	Yes	$20	7.0¢	Lost
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	$10	4.6¢	Lost
Will DEN/SEA/HOU/LAR win their 2026 NFL Divisional Round games?	Yes	$20	26.0¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?	No	$100	53.2¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?	No	$50	30.0¢	Lost
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)	Gaethje	$100	32.5¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?	Yes	$100	63.3¢	Won
Will New England face Seattle in Super Bowl LX?	Yes	$20	42.7¢	Won

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$50 @ 42.7¢
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Lost
Hooker$50 @ 30.2¢
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Lost
Alex Pereira$30 @ 50.0¢
Makhachev Parlay - Islam Wins Submission & Fight Lasts Over 2.5 RoundsLost
Yes$20 @ 19.6¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 30?Lost
Yes$20 @ 13.7¢
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)Won
Shevchenko$56 @ 56.0¢
Miami vs. IndianaLost
Miami$20 @ 26.0¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$50 @ 47.0¢
Will Islam Makhachev win by KO or TKO?Lost
Yes$5 @ 12.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
Yes$50 @ 26.0¢
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Will LAR/CHI/BUF/SF/NE/HOU win their 2026 NFL Wild Card round games?Won
Yes$20 @ 40.4¢
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card)Lost
Lerone Murphy$50 @ 33.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$250 @ 30.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "Abraham Accords" during Syria President events on November 10?Lost
Yes$40 @ 74.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$450 @ 38.4¢
Bills vs. JaguarsWon
Bills$20 @ 46.0¢
Fight to Go the Distance?Won
Yes$30 @ 36.0¢
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Won
Yes$55 @ 26.8¢
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Lost
Benoît Saint Denis$101 @ 57.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$154 @ 29.0¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Won
Yes$50 @ 57.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Won
No$100 @ 32.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Syria President events on November 10?Lost
Yes$20 @ 27.0¢
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Lost
Yes$50 @ 48.2¢
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?Lost
No$40 @ 8.0¢
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?Lost
Yes$20 @ 12.6¢
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)Won
Diego Lopes$30 @ 58.0¢
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?Lost
No$50 @ 58.0¢
Will Leon Edwards win by KO or TKO?Lost
Yes$5 @ 10.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Lost
Yes$10 @ 16.0¢
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?Won
No$50 @ 54.8¢
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?Lost
Yes$50 @ 37.5¢
Will LAR/CHI/BUF/PHI/NE/HOU win their 2026 NFL Wild Card round games?Lost
Yes$20 @ 22.8¢
0xa573400b…Lost
Yes$100 @ 19.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$400 @ 55.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?Won
Yes$66 @ 51.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?Lost
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Lost
Yes$50 @ 29.1¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?Won
No$274 @ 45.6¢
Will Trump say "Alien" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Lost
No$20 @ 21.0¢
Will BUF/SF/NE/LAR win their 2026 NFL Divisional Round games?Lost
Yes$20 @ 7.0¢
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 4.6¢
Will DEN/SEA/HOU/LAR win their 2026 NFL Divisional Round games?Lost
Yes$20 @ 26.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?Won
No$100 @ 53.2¢
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?Lost
No$50 @ 30.0¢
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)Won
Gaethje$100 @ 32.5¢
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?Won
Yes$100 @ 63.3¢
Will New England face Seattle in Super Bowl LX?Won
Yes$20 @ 42.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$250	14.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$200	62.7¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$100	31.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$40	39.0¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$20	3.0¢

Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$250 @ 14.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$200 @ 62.7¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$100 @ 31.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$40 @ 39.0¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$20 @ 3.0¢