0xa20c…451a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa20c26031a0b7510c7e4959dcd6d8d2fa23c451a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-2.1pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

14% @ 16.0¢

Brier

0.061

Resolved

1862

Avg size

$45

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	27% (33/122)	-10%	122
Politics	47% (8/17)	+19%	17
Science	0% (0/7)	-100%	7
Geopolitics	50% (2/4)	+35%	4
Tech	0% (0/3)	-100%	3

Other122 bets
Hit rate
27% (33/122)
ROI
-10%
Politics17 bets
Hit rate
47% (8/17)
ROI
+19%
Science7 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/7)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+35%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%

Track record

28% hit · 43/153

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 29?	Yes	$37	1.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?	No	$68	9.5¢	Lost
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$376	57.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on April 13?	No	$43	61.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on September 6?	Yes	$5	0.6¢	Lost
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	No	$64	57.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 14?	No	$164	8.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 14?	Yes	$18	10.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 29?	Yes	$51	0.5¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$112	31.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$5.3k	11.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 12?	Yes	$833	10.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on April 15?	Yes	$19	3.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 9?	No	$228	81.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 16?	Yes	$16	12.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 27?	Yes	$5	0.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on March 27?	Yes	$72	5.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or below on March 29?	Yes	$54	0.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 26?	Yes	$123	5.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 10?	No	$515	80.9¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$88	6.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 28?	Yes	$62	0.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on March 27?	Yes	$1	4.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 29?	No	$79	83.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 29?	Yes	$81	15.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 26?	No	$139	51.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 29?	Yes	$114	3.8¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$521	13.4¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$3.7k	72.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 10?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 11?	No	$583	60.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 1?	No	$160	64.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 1?	Yes	$216	69.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 6?	Yes	$35	14.8¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2.7k	0.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 27?	No	$4	11.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 7?	Yes	$14	6.7¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$3.4k	84.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on March 27?	Yes	$0	1.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 27?	Yes	$15	10.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$1.6k	80.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?	No	$348	9.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 2?	Yes	$83	8.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 4?	Yes	$2	7.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 20?	Yes	$259	15.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 29?	Yes	$110	11.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 12?	No	$160	80.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 12?	Yes	$52	1.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or below on March 28?	Yes	$37	0.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 12?	No	$425	79.5¢	Won

Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 29?Lost
Yes$37 @ 1.3¢
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?Lost
No$68 @ 9.5¢
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
Yes$376 @ 57.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on April 13?Lost
No$43 @ 61.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on September 6?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.6¢
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
No$64 @ 57.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 14?Lost
No$164 @ 8.2¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 14?Won
Yes$18 @ 10.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 29?Lost
Yes$51 @ 0.5¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$112 @ 31.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$5.3k @ 11.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 12?Lost
Yes$833 @ 10.3¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on April 15?Lost
Yes$19 @ 3.4¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 9?Lost
No$228 @ 81.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 16?Lost
Yes$16 @ 12.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 27?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on March 27?Lost
Yes$72 @ 5.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or below on March 29?Lost
Yes$54 @ 0.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 26?Lost
Yes$123 @ 5.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 10?Won
No$515 @ 80.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$88 @ 6.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 28?Lost
Yes$62 @ 0.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on March 27?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.9¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 29?Won
No$79 @ 83.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 29?Lost
Yes$81 @ 15.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 26?Won
No$139 @ 51.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 29?Lost
Yes$114 @ 3.8¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$521 @ 13.4¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$3.7k @ 72.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 10?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 11?Won
No$583 @ 60.5¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 1?Lost
No$160 @ 64.1¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 1?Won
Yes$216 @ 69.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 6?Lost
Yes$35 @ 14.8¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$2.7k @ 0.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 27?Lost
No$4 @ 11.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 7?Lost
Yes$14 @ 6.7¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$3.4k @ 84.0¢
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on March 27?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 27?Lost
Yes$15 @ 10.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$1.6k @ 80.0¢
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?Won
No$348 @ 9.5¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 2?Lost
Yes$83 @ 8.3¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 4?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 20?Lost
Yes$259 @ 15.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 29?Lost
Yes$110 @ 11.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 12?Won
No$160 @ 80.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 12?Lost
Yes$52 @ 1.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or below on March 28?Lost
Yes$37 @ 0.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 12?Won
No$425 @ 79.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$4.2k	40.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$3.9k	89.5¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.5k	81.7¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	57.3¢
Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat?	Politics	No	$912	17.0¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$733	14.0¢
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?	Politics	No	$695	53.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$652	55.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$510	51.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$195	33.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$174	46.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$130	72.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$65	54.0¢

Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$4.2k @ 40.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
No$3.9k @ 89.5¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$3.5k @ 81.7¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 57.3¢
Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat?Politics
No$912 @ 17.0¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$733 @ 14.0¢
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?Politics
No$695 @ 53.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$652 @ 55.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$510 @ 51.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?Tech
Yes$195 @ 33.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$174 @ 46.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$130 @ 72.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?Tech
Yes$65 @ 54.0¢