0xa204…bf99

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa204c9cfab0569f2623d2ec6fdbf26a986ddbf99
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.8pp

ROI

+32%

Win rate

21% @ 11.5¢

Brier

0.103

Resolved

588

Avg size

$79

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	16% (16/100)	+53%	100
Politics	16% (4/25)	-79%	25
Geopolitics	0% (0/9)	-100%	9
Sports	67% (2/3)	+514%	3

Other100 bets
Hit rate
16% (16/100)
ROI
+53%
Politics25 bets
Hit rate
16% (4/25)
ROI
-79%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/9)
ROI
-100%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+514%

Track record

16% hit · 22/137

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$100	3.5¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	$15	14.7¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	2.8¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$19	1.7¢	Lost
RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$160	16.9¢	Won
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?	Yes	$31	3.6¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.3k	51.8¢	Won
Cruzeiro EC vs. CD Universidad Católica: O/U 2.5	Over	$100	42.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$100	16.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	$540	26.1¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	Yes	$23	1.8¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in London be 5°C on May 13?	Yes	$1	0.8¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	$300	13.2¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$3.6k	52.7¢	Won
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	No	$2	15.0¢	Lost
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will Trump Leave China on May 15?	No	$2	1.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$29	0.3¢	Lost
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$5	3.3¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$127	16.0¢	Won
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	Yes	$16	5.6¢	Lost
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	$1	1.1¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$6	5.0¢	Won
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	No	$2	19.0¢	Won
Will Marco Rubio visit China by June 30, 2026?	No	$8	7.0¢	Lost
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	Yes	$182	15.0¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?	Yes	$16	10.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$130	2.2¢	Lost
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$180	32.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	$2.3k	12.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on May 6?	Yes	$2	0.4¢	Lost
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-24?	No	$103	16.0¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026?	Yes	$45	14.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$101	2.6¢	Lost
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-14?	Yes	$100	13.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	$203	24.3¢	Lost
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on May 7?	Yes	$52	10.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$136	12.2¢	Lost
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-18?	Yes	$13	0.5¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$196	5.2¢	Lost
Will Andrew Shelley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	$82	3.7¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$712	5.6¢	Lost
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$333	10.0¢	Lost

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$100 @ 3.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 4 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 14.7¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 2.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$19 @ 1.7¢
RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreWon
Yes$160 @ 16.9¢
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?Lost
Yes$31 @ 3.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 51.8¢
Cruzeiro EC vs. CD Universidad Católica: O/U 2.5Won
Over$100 @ 42.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 16.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Lost
Yes$540 @ 26.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?Lost
Yes$23 @ 1.8¢
Will the lowest temperature in London be 5°C on May 13?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.8¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
No$300 @ 13.2¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$3.6k @ 52.7¢
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?Lost
No$2 @ 15.0¢
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will Trump Leave China on May 15?Lost
No$2 @ 1.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$29 @ 0.3¢
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.3¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$127 @ 16.0¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Lost
Yes$16 @ 5.6¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Lost
No$1 @ 1.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$6 @ 5.0¢
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?Won
No$2 @ 19.0¢
Will Marco Rubio visit China by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$8 @ 7.0¢
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?Lost
Yes$182 @ 15.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?Won
Yes$16 @ 10.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$130 @ 2.2¢
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreLost
Yes$180 @ 32.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?Lost
Yes$2.3k @ 12.2¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on May 6?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-24?Lost
No$103 @ 16.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$45 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$101 @ 2.6¢
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-14?Won
Yes$100 @ 13.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026?Lost
Yes$203 @ 24.3¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on May 7?Won
Yes$52 @ 10.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$136 @ 12.2¢
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-18?Lost
Yes$13 @ 0.5¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$196 @ 5.2¢
Will Andrew Shelley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?Lost
Yes$82 @ 3.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$712 @ 5.6¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$333 @ 10.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 15, 2026?	—	Yes	$92	16.8¢
Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	—	Yes	$42	14.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in September?	—	No	$34	5.9¢
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win less than 16% of all valid votes?	—	Yes	$8	0.9¢
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	—	Yes	$4	2.9¢
Will Tencent be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	—	Yes	$3	2.5¢
Will DeepSeek be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	—	Yes	$2	1.9¢
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	—	Yes	$1	0.2¢
Will Baidu be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	—	Yes	$0	0.5¢

Will Iran target an Arab country by September 15, 2026?—
Yes$92 @ 16.8¢
Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?—
Yes$42 @ 14.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in September?—
No$34 @ 5.9¢
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win less than 16% of all valid votes?—
Yes$8 @ 0.9¢
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?—
Yes$4 @ 2.9¢
Will Tencent be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?—
Yes$3 @ 2.5¢
Will DeepSeek be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?—
Yes$2 @ 1.9¢
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?—
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Baidu be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?—
Yes$0 @ 0.5¢