0xa156…cf02

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa15655c43a7e4b50190d1f14198e80da86a1cf02
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.9pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

44% @ 36.6¢

Brier

0.207

Resolved

1157

Avg size

$31

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Sports	36% (29/80)	+3%	80
Culture	32% (23/71)	+9%	71
Other	43% (21/49)	+30%	49
Politics	40% (10/25)	+18%	25
Economy	41% (9/22)	+13%	22
Science	47% (7/15)	-4%	15
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Sports80 bets
Hit rate
36% (29/80)
ROI
+3%
Culture71 bets
Hit rate
32% (23/71)
ROI
+9%
Other49 bets
Hit rate
43% (21/49)
ROI
+30%
Politics25 bets
Hit rate
40% (10/25)
ROI
+18%
Economy22 bets
Hit rate
41% (9/22)
ROI
+13%
Science15 bets
Hit rate
47% (7/15)
ROI
-4%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

38% hit · 99/263

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?	Yes	$101	48.0¢	Lost
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in October?	No	$363	82.5¢	Won
Will "Clayface" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m?	Yes	$78	45.4¢	Lost
Will "The Cat in the Hat" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 18m?	Yes	$45	20.0¢	Lost
Will "Clayface" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?	Yes	$28	11.8¢	Won
Will "The Cat in the Hat" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 20m?	Yes	$29	10.3¢	Lost
Will "Wildwood" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 6m?	Yes	$82	82.0¢	Won
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 37m and 40m?	Yes	$6	11.4¢	Lost
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 34m?	Yes	$20	9.1¢	Lost
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 43m?	Yes	$71	6.3¢	Lost
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 43m?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?	Yes	$3	15.0¢	Lost
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	Invictus Gaming	$56	28.0¢	Lost
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner	Invictus Gaming	$30	12.0¢	Lost
Will In-fa become a Violent typhoon?	No	$472	80.8¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$460	92.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	$46	91.0¢	Won
Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12m?	Yes	$17	34.8¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?	Yes	$1	37.0¢	Lost
Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?	Yes	$233	26.5¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	$26	17.0¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	Yes	$2	25.0¢	Won
Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 9m?	Yes	$150	58.9¢	Won
Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $10M and $12M?	Yes	$124	32.4¢	Won
Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $8M and $10M?	Yes	$70	11.3¢	Lost
Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m?	Yes	$126	46.0¢	Lost
Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?	Yes	$58	19.5¢	Lost
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	No	$34	33.9¢	Lost
Will Vance peak at Category 2?	Yes	$461	86.1¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	Yes	$63	63.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	$60	52.2¢	Lost
Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $19.5M and $21M?	Yes	$27	6.7¢	Lost
Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $18M and $19.5M?	Yes	$17	8.5¢	Won
Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $16.5M and $18M?	Yes	$10	5.0¢	Lost
Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?	Yes	$81	28.0¢	Lost
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.9k	61.6¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$24	24.0¢	Lost
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$23	33.3¢	Lost
Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$15	30.0¢	Lost
Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 28m?	Yes	$109	28.6¢	Lost
Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?	Yes	$118	22.8¢	Won
Will "Street Fighter" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than $8M?	Yes	$16	2.0¢	Lost
Will "Street Fighter" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $11M and $14M?	Yes	$12	25.0¢	Lost
Will "Street Fighter" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $8M and $11M?	Yes	$352	74.0¢	Won
Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?	Yes	$100	23.2¢	Won
Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	Yes	$38	23.2¢	Lost
Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?	Yes	$42	30.0¢	Lost
Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12m?	Yes	$13	20.0¢	Lost
Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 16m?	Yes	$7	5.0¢	Lost
Will Champi peak as a Violent typhoon?	No	$51	34.0¢	Lost

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?Lost
Yes$101 @ 48.0¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in October?Won
No$363 @ 82.5¢
Will "Clayface" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m?Lost
Yes$78 @ 45.4¢
Will "The Cat in the Hat" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 18m?Lost
Yes$45 @ 20.0¢
Will "Clayface" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?Won
Yes$28 @ 11.8¢
Will "The Cat in the Hat" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 20m?Lost
Yes$29 @ 10.3¢
Will "Wildwood" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 6m?Won
Yes$82 @ 82.0¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 37m and 40m?Lost
Yes$6 @ 11.4¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 34m?Lost
Yes$20 @ 9.1¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 43m?Lost
Yes$71 @ 6.3¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 43m?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?Lost
Yes$3 @ 15.0¢
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Gen.G - Game 3 WinnerLost
Invictus Gaming$56 @ 28.0¢
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Gen.G - Game 1 WinnerLost
Invictus Gaming$30 @ 12.0¢
Will In-fa become a Violent typhoon?Won
No$472 @ 80.8¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
Yes$460 @ 92.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Won
No$46 @ 91.0¢
Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12m?Won
Yes$17 @ 34.8¢
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 37.0¢
Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?Lost
Yes$233 @ 26.5¢
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?Lost
Yes$26 @ 17.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?Won
Yes$2 @ 25.0¢
Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 9m?Won
Yes$150 @ 58.9¢
Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $10M and $12M?Won
Yes$124 @ 32.4¢
Will "You Can See Everything" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between $8M and $10M?Lost
Yes$70 @ 11.3¢
Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m?Lost
Yes$126 @ 46.0¢
Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?Lost
Yes$58 @ 19.5¢
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$34 @ 33.9¢
Will Vance peak at Category 2?Won
Yes$461 @ 86.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?Lost
Yes$63 @ 63.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Lost
No$60 @ 52.2¢
Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $19.5M and $21M?Lost
Yes$27 @ 6.7¢
Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $18M and $19.5M?Won
Yes$17 @ 8.5¢
Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $16.5M and $18M?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.0¢
Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?Lost
Yes$81 @ 28.0¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 61.6¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$24 @ 24.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
No$23 @ 33.3¢
Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
No$15 @ 30.0¢
Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 28m?Lost
Yes$109 @ 28.6¢
Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?Won
Yes$118 @ 22.8¢
Will "Street Fighter" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than $8M?Lost
Yes$16 @ 2.0¢
Will "Street Fighter" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $11M and $14M?Lost
Yes$12 @ 25.0¢
Will "Street Fighter" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $8M and $11M?Won
Yes$352 @ 74.0¢
Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?Won
Yes$100 @ 23.2¢
Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?Lost
Yes$38 @ 23.2¢
Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?Lost
Yes$42 @ 30.0¢
Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12m?Lost
Yes$13 @ 20.0¢
Will "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 16m?Lost
Yes$7 @ 5.0¢
Will Champi peak as a Violent typhoon?Lost
No$51 @ 34.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.8k	85.5¢
Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $75M and $100M by November 30?	Culture	Yes	$1.3k	77.0¢
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	Sports	Yes	$481	48.1¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?	Culture	Yes	$180	12.5¢
Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$160	28.8¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$153	18.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$144	72.0¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 37m and 40m?	Culture	Yes	$144	10.1¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 43m?	Culture	Yes	$119	7.9¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?	Economy	Yes	$101	48.0¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 34m?	Culture	Yes	$100	14.1¢
Will no hurricane form by November 30, 2026?	Science	Yes	$90	47.0¢
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$90	5.9¢
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	Sports	Invictus Gaming	$81	27.0¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 43m?	Culture	Yes	$80	5.5¢
Government shutdown by December 12?	Politics	No	$60	60.0¢
Will Hung Cao be confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$50	50.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $100M and $125M by November 30?	Culture	Yes	$45	12.3¢
Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?	Science	Yes	$31	77.0¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?	Economy	Yes	$30	11.0¢
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner	Sports	Invictus Gaming	$30	12.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$30	6.0¢
Will "The Cat in the Hat" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 20m?	Culture	Yes	$29	10.3¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un by November 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$7	7.0¢
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$0	0.2¢

Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?Politics
No$1.8k @ 85.5¢
Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $75M and $100M by November 30?Culture
Yes$1.3k @ 77.0¢
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?Sports
Yes$481 @ 48.1¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?Culture
Yes$180 @ 12.5¢
Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$160 @ 28.8¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?Politics
Yes$153 @ 18.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
No$144 @ 72.0¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 37m and 40m?Culture
Yes$144 @ 10.1¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 43m?Culture
Yes$119 @ 7.9¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?Economy
Yes$101 @ 48.0¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 34m?Culture
Yes$100 @ 14.1¢
Will no hurricane form by November 30, 2026?Science
Yes$90 @ 47.0¢
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$90 @ 5.9¢
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Gen.G - Game 3 WinnerSports
Invictus Gaming$81 @ 27.0¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 43m?Culture
Yes$80 @ 5.5¢
Government shutdown by December 12?Politics
No$60 @ 60.0¢
Will Hung Cao be confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by December 31?Politics
Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $100M and $125M by November 30?Culture
Yes$45 @ 12.3¢
Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?Science
Yes$31 @ 77.0¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?Economy
Yes$30 @ 11.0¢
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Gen.G - Game 1 WinnerSports
Invictus Gaming$30 @ 12.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$30 @ 6.0¢
Will "The Cat in the Hat" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 20m?Culture
Yes$29 @ 10.3¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un by November 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢