0xa156…cf02

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa15655c43a7e4b50190d1f14198e80da86a1cf02
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+15.9pp

ROI

+24%

Win rate

53% @ 37.3¢

Brier

0.216

Resolved

739

Avg size

$35

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (21/44)	+37%	44
Politics	38% (8/21)	+20%	21
Sports	35% (7/20)	-7%	20
Economy	50% (6/12)	+3%	12
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other44 bets
Hit rate
48% (21/44)
ROI
+37%
Politics21 bets
Hit rate
38% (8/21)
ROI
+20%
Sports20 bets
Hit rate
35% (7/20)
ROI
-7%
Economy12 bets
Hit rate
50% (6/12)
ROI
+3%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

42% hit · 42/99

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?	Yes	$44	29.0¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$9	6.6¢	Lost
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$65	64.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	No	$200	73.9¢	Won
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Under	$20	45.0¢	Won
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	No	$16	32.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$100	8.9¢	Lost
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$184	20.7¢	Lost
Will the peak wave height at NY Harbor buoy 44065 be 10 ft or more?	No	$7	13.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 France?	Yes	$6	19.0¢	Won
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$680	74.1¢	Won
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$137	4.0¢	Lost
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Yes	$13	25.0¢	Won
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Yes	$20	30.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?	Yes	$1.1k	41.4¢	Won
Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	$21	5.0¢	Lost
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m?	Yes	$65	19.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?	Yes	$625	44.2¢	Lost
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 24m?	Yes	$158	41.7¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	No	$3	3.3¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$22	14.3¢	Won
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during their summit?	Yes	$57	28.5¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	$23	61.2¢	Lost
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?	Yes	$24	6.0¢	Won
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match?	Yes	$31	63.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$157	48.7¢	Won
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?	No	$1	2.8¢	Lost
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	Yes	$104	19.2¢	Lost
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	$9	23.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	$400	26.5¢	Lost
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	$50	50.0¢	Lost
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$100	2.5¢	Lost
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Spain?	Yes	$3	8.0¢	Lost
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$44	10.1¢	Lost
Will "Resident Evil" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 26m and 29m?	Yes	$11	11.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in September?	Yes	$231	77.1¢	Won
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Yes	$15	14.5¢	Lost
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	$251	53.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?	Yes	$104	84.0¢	Won
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GAM Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C	GAM Esports	$5	14.0¢	Won
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$26	26.0¢	Lost
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May?	No	$1.9k	87.0¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May?	Yes	$37	37.0¢	Lost
Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?	Yes	$1.9k	56.4¢	Lost
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 France?	Yes	$8	20.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	No	$21	3.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	Yes	$342	71.3¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Yes	$6	15.0¢	Won

Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?Lost
Yes$44 @ 29.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$9 @ 6.6¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$65 @ 64.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Won
No$200 @ 73.9¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5Won
Under$20 @ 45.0¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?Won
No$16 @ 32.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$100 @ 8.9¢
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$184 @ 20.7¢
Will the peak wave height at NY Harbor buoy 44065 be 10 ft or more?Lost
No$7 @ 13.0¢
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 France?Won
Yes$6 @ 19.0¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$680 @ 74.1¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$137 @ 4.0¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?Won
Yes$13 @ 25.0¢
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?Lost
Yes$20 @ 30.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 41.4¢
Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?Lost
Yes$21 @ 5.0¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m?Lost
Yes$65 @ 19.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?Lost
Yes$625 @ 44.2¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 24m?Won
Yes$158 @ 41.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 3.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$22 @ 14.3¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during their summit?Lost
Yes$57 @ 28.5¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?Lost
Yes$23 @ 61.2¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?Won
Yes$24 @ 6.0¢
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match?Lost
Yes$31 @ 63.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$157 @ 48.7¢
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?Lost
No$1 @ 2.8¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?Lost
Yes$104 @ 19.2¢
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?Lost
Yes$9 @ 23.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Lost
Yes$400 @ 26.5¢
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?Lost
Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$100 @ 2.5¢
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Spain?Lost
Yes$3 @ 8.0¢
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Lost
Yes$44 @ 10.1¢
Will "Resident Evil" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 26m and 29m?Lost
Yes$11 @ 11.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in September?Won
Yes$231 @ 77.1¢
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?Lost
Yes$15 @ 14.5¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?Lost
No$251 @ 53.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?Won
Yes$104 @ 84.0¢
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GAM Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group CWon
GAM Esports$5 @ 14.0¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$26 @ 26.0¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May?Won
No$1.9k @ 87.0¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May?Lost
Yes$37 @ 37.0¢
Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 56.4¢
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 France?Lost
Yes$8 @ 20.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?Lost
No$21 @ 3.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?Won
Yes$342 @ 71.3¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?Won
Yes$6 @ 15.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Economy	Yes	$1.9k	61.6¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	Culture	Yes	$214	35.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$198	36.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?	Culture	Yes	$180	30.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$101	28.8¢
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	Economy	Yes	$94	45.8¢
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	Economy	No	$71	71.0¢
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$51	5.8¢
Will Hung Cao be confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$50	50.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?	Economy	Yes	$38	19.0¢
Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?	Science	Yes	$31	77.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Culture	Yes	$26	17.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$21	69.0¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?	Economy	No	$19	46.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Politics	Yes	$16	16.5¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?	Economy	No	$12	41.0¢
Will "Resident Evil" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 26m and 29m?	Culture	Yes	$11	11.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	Culture	Yes	$2	25.0¢

Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Economy
Yes$1.9k @ 61.6¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?Culture
Yes$214 @ 35.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$198 @ 36.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?Culture
Yes$180 @ 30.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?Politics
Yes$101 @ 28.8¢
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?Economy
Yes$94 @ 45.8¢
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?Economy
No$71 @ 71.0¢
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$51 @ 5.8¢
Will Hung Cao be confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by December 31?Politics
Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?Economy
Yes$38 @ 19.0¢
Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?Science
Yes$31 @ 77.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?Culture
Yes$26 @ 17.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
Yes$21 @ 69.0¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?Economy
No$19 @ 46.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
Yes$16 @ 16.5¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?Economy
No$12 @ 41.0¢
Will "Resident Evil" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 26m and 29m?Culture
Yes$11 @ 11.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?Culture
Yes$2 @ 25.0¢