0x9ef5…5d4f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9ef582748baf671ee716075658b870ae747c5d4f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+20.5pp

ROI

+42%

Win rate

70% @ 49.5¢

Brier

0.113

Resolved

380

Avg size

$454

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (6/12)	+43%	12
Politics	60% (3/5)	+41%	5
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other12 bets
Hit rate
50% (6/12)
ROI
+43%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+41%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

50% hit · 9/18

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$533	12.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	No	$3.3k	1.1¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$983	55.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$2.3k	10.9¢	Won
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$36.7k	72.2¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$34	0.6¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?	Yes	$240	6.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$54.0k	67.6¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	No	$4.5k	40.4¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	$1.1k	51.6¢	Won
Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	$844	33.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$160	1.3¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	$9.4k	83.2¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	$57.1k	83.8¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$500	9.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	No	$700	28.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	$20	20.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$20	40.0¢	Lost

US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$533 @ 12.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Lost
No$3.3k @ 1.1¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$983 @ 55.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 10.9¢
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$36.7k @ 72.2¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$34 @ 0.6¢
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$240 @ 6.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$54.0k @ 67.6¢
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Lost
No$4.5k @ 40.4¢
Iran leadership change by April 30?Won
No$1.1k @ 51.6¢
Iran leadership change by April 30?Lost
Yes$844 @ 33.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$160 @ 1.3¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Won
Yes$9.4k @ 83.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Won
No$57.1k @ 83.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$500 @ 9.0¢
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?Lost
No$700 @ 28.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Lost
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$20 @ 40.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$46.7k	50.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$46.7k	50.0¢

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$46.7k @ 50.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
No$46.7k @ 50.0¢