0x9d5e…3921

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9d5e5f4ef1da8a652ea3696b19fdc089bd2c3921
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+4.8pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

45% @ 40.5¢

Brier

0.243

Resolved

605

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	41% (41/99)	+53%	99
Politics	32% (14/44)	-32%	44
Crypto	38% (5/13)	-69%	13
Sports	14% (1/7)	-78%	7
Geopolitics	43% (3/7)	+24%	7
Tech	50% (1/2)	-83%	2
Culture	50% (1/2)	+19%	2

Other99 bets
Hit rate
41% (41/99)
ROI
+53%
Politics44 bets
Hit rate
32% (14/44)
ROI
-32%
Crypto13 bets
Hit rate
38% (5/13)
ROI
-69%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
14% (1/7)
ROI
-78%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
+24%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-83%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+19%

Track record

38% hit · 66/174

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-09-19?	Yes	$50	19.0¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$4	59.3¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$3	9.5¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 6?	Yes	$1	52.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$7	52.8¢	Won
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	No	$1	80.0¢	Won
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$1	21.0¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$5	6.5¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$3	73.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$13	28.3¢	Lost
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	$7	20.4¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$5	39.0¢	Won
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$6	14.7¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	28.4¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?	No	$2	44.1¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$1	14.1¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?	Yes	$23	82.7¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$11	56.9¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$5	46.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$4	22.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 18, 2026?	No	$2	15.0¢	Lost
GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	$18	59.4¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	$2	37.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$9	24.7¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$2	45.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	$5	79.0¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	Yes	$49	18.4¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$2	34.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$2	73.8¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?	Yes	$3	84.8¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	$9	51.8¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	$1	43.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$3	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$9	20.4¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	$8	45.4¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$17	38.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$2	31.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$3	24.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$3	61.9¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$12	67.4¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$2	10.9¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$4	12.6¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$22	34.3¢	Won
Will Haiti be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$0	4.8¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$22	53.1¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	$4	34.3¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$5	49.0¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$56	10.1¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$7	77.4¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$8	23.9¢	Lost

Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-09-19?Won
Yes$50 @ 19.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$4 @ 59.3¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
Yes$3 @ 9.5¢
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 6?Lost
Yes$1 @ 52.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$7 @ 52.8¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Won
No$1 @ 80.0¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 21.0¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 6.5¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$3 @ 73.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 28.3¢
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?Lost
No$7 @ 20.4¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$5 @ 39.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 14.7¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 28.4¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?Won
No$2 @ 44.1¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.1¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?Won
Yes$23 @ 82.7¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$11 @ 56.9¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 46.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 22.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 18, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 15.0¢
GRVT FDV above $250M one day after launch?Lost
No$18 @ 59.4¢
Will France win on 2026-07-14?Lost
Yes$2 @ 37.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 24.7¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
No$2 @ 45.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?Won
No$5 @ 79.0¢
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?Won
Yes$49 @ 18.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$2 @ 34.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$2 @ 73.8¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 84.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?Lost
No$9 @ 51.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?Won
Yes$1 @ 43.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 20.4¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Lost
Yes$8 @ 45.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$17 @ 38.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 31.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 24.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 61.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$12 @ 67.4¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 10.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$4 @ 12.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$22 @ 34.3¢
Will Haiti be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$0 @ 4.8¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$22 @ 53.1¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Won
Yes$4 @ 34.3¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$5 @ 49.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$56 @ 10.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$7 @ 77.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$8 @ 23.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-09-19?	—	Yes	$50	19.0¢
Will Clavicular visit Japan in 2026?	—	Yes	$35	76.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on September 19?	—	No	$20	75.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	—	Yes	$11	70.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	—	Yes	$10	48.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	—	Yes	$10	32.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$8	42.0¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in September?	—	Yes	$7	70.0¢
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in September?	—	Yes	$5	14.0¢
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	—	Yes	$5	3.5¢

Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-09-19?—
Yes$50 @ 19.0¢
Will Clavicular visit Japan in 2026?—
Yes$35 @ 76.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on September 19?—
No$20 @ 75.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?—
Yes$11 @ 70.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?—
Yes$10 @ 48.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?—
Yes$10 @ 32.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$8 @ 42.0¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in September?—
Yes$7 @ 70.0¢
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in September?—
Yes$5 @ 14.0¢
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?—
Yes$5 @ 3.5¢