0x9cf6…559d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9cf6c12ba5927d43e9297006a438d2af0af5559d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+1.9pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

33% @ 30.7¢

Brier

0.131

Resolved

4789

Avg size

$39

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	41% (257/633)	+6%	633
Politics	42% (25/59)	-29%	59

Other633 bets
Hit rate
41% (257/633)
ROI
+6%
Politics59 bets
Hit rate
42% (25/59)
ROI
-29%

Track record

41% hit · 282/692

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	Yes	$12	58.0¢	Won
Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?	Yes	$394	93.4¢	Won
Will Otaviano Pivetta win the 2026 Mato Grosso gubernatorial election?	Yes	$606	91.0¢	Won
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Yes	$341	85.4¢	Won
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	Yes	$86	68.1¢	Won
Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	Yes	$1	5.5¢	Lost
Will SPD win 26-29 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	$1.2k	97.1¢	Won
Will AfD win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	$40	99.0¢	Won
Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	$10	98.9¢	Won
Will SPD win 30-33 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	$280	98.9¢	Won
Will PPSO win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$10	19.6¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?	Yes	$0	9.0¢	Lost
Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?	Yes	$112	8.8¢	Lost
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	No	$55	72.6¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	Yes	$63	10.7¢	Lost
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?	Yes	$8	22.0¢	Lost
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?	Yes	$38	24.0¢	Won
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	No	$84	14.0¢	Lost
Will the Labour Party (Ap) win more than 55 seats in the Norwegian election?	Yes	$14	11.0¢	Lost
Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?	Yes	$71	7.6¢	Lost
Will HRPP win the most seats in the 2025 Samoa Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$3	0.1¢	Lost
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?	No	$111	12.3¢	Lost
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?	Yes	$324	43.5¢	Won
Will André Ventura win the first round by 2–4%?	No	$197	83.2¢	Won
Will Nepali Communist Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?	No	$10	81.0¢	Won
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?	No	$410	80.0¢	Won
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 150 and 199 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?	Yes	$5	13.6¢	Lost
Will VVD win fewer than 14 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	No	$141	89.0¢	Won
Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by at least 3%?	Yes	$49	6.2¢	Lost
Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?	Yes	$9	0.4¢	Lost
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 11.5–12m?	No	$435	86.9¢	Lost
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 11.5–12m?	Yes	$883	30.7¢	Won
Will António José Seguro win the first round?	No	$155	70.0¢	Lost
Will António José Seguro win the first round?	Yes	$117	33.5¢	Won
Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000 voters?	No	$17	5.0¢	Lost
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 78 and 81%?	Yes	$144	30.1¢	Won
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?	No	$148	6.0¢	Lost
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?	Yes	$2.1k	58.0¢	Won
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?	Yes	$5	7.0¢	Lost
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?	Yes	$104	25.2¢	Won
Will André Ventura win more than 26% of votes in the first round?	Yes	$49	9.6¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$149	27.3¢	Lost
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 200 and 249 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?	No	$14	17.8¢	Lost
50% Brazil tariff in effect by August 1?	Yes	$48	45.8¢	Lost
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$226	7.5¢	Lost
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?	Yes	$271	51.0¢	Won
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?	No	$50	35.0¢	Won
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?	Yes	$147	66.0¢	Lost
Will Islami Andolan Bangladesh finish with the third most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the first round by at least 6%?	Yes	$282	88.0¢	Won

Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?Won
Yes$12 @ 58.0¢
Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?Won
Yes$394 @ 93.4¢
Will Otaviano Pivetta win the 2026 Mato Grosso gubernatorial election?Won
Yes$606 @ 91.0¢
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?Won
Yes$341 @ 85.4¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Won
Yes$86 @ 68.1¢
Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.5¢
Will SPD win 26-29 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 97.1¢
Will AfD win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$40 @ 99.0¢
Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
No$10 @ 98.9¢
Will SPD win 30-33 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
No$280 @ 98.9¢
Will PPSO win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 19.6¢
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?Lost
Yes$0 @ 9.0¢
Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?Lost
Yes$112 @ 8.8¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Won
No$55 @ 72.6¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Lost
Yes$63 @ 10.7¢
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?Lost
Yes$8 @ 22.0¢
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Won
Yes$38 @ 24.0¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Lost
No$84 @ 14.0¢
Will the Labour Party (Ap) win more than 55 seats in the Norwegian election?Lost
Yes$14 @ 11.0¢
Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?Lost
Yes$71 @ 7.6¢
Will HRPP win the most seats in the 2025 Samoa Legislative Assembly election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.1¢
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Lost
No$111 @ 12.3¢
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Won
Yes$324 @ 43.5¢
Will André Ventura win the first round by 2–4%?Won
No$197 @ 83.2¢
Will Nepali Communist Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?Won
No$10 @ 81.0¢
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?Won
No$410 @ 80.0¢
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 150 and 199 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 13.6¢
Will VVD win fewer than 14 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Won
No$141 @ 89.0¢
Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by at least 3%?Lost
Yes$49 @ 6.2¢
Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.4¢
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 11.5–12m?Lost
No$435 @ 86.9¢
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be between 11.5–12m?Won
Yes$883 @ 30.7¢
Will António José Seguro win the first round?Lost
No$155 @ 70.0¢
Will António José Seguro win the first round?Won
Yes$117 @ 33.5¢
Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000 voters?Lost
No$17 @ 5.0¢
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election be between 78 and 81%?Won
Yes$144 @ 30.1¢
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?Lost
No$148 @ 6.0¢
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 58.0¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?Lost
Yes$5 @ 7.0¢
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Won
Yes$104 @ 25.2¢
Will André Ventura win more than 26% of votes in the first round?Lost
Yes$49 @ 9.6¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$149 @ 27.3¢
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 200 and 249 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?Lost
No$14 @ 17.8¢
50% Brazil tariff in effect by August 1?Lost
Yes$48 @ 45.8¢
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$226 @ 7.5¢
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?Won
Yes$271 @ 51.0¢
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?Won
No$50 @ 35.0¢
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?Lost
Yes$147 @ 66.0¢
Will Islami Andolan Bangladesh finish with the third most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the first round by at least 6%?Won
Yes$282 @ 88.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$7.5k	50.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$7.5k	50.0¢
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?	Politics	No	$5.8k	94.9¢
Will voter turnout in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	97.1¢
Will voter turnout in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be less than 76%?	Politics	No	$935	97.7¢
Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?	Politics	No	$922	90.0¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Politics	Yes	$801	92.3¢
Will the Justice and Welfare Party (UCID) win the most seats in the next Somaliland parliamentary election?	Politics	No	$522	97.9¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Politics	No	$306	78.4¢
Will Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?	Politics	No	$238	90.0¢
Will 'Aisake Hoatatau Finau win the Ongo Niua 17 by-election?	Politics	No	$129	89.2¢
Will Kamila Zlatušková be the next Mayor of Brno?	Politics	Yes	$58	45.0¢
Will Václav Láska be the next Mayor of Prague?	Politics	No	$44	92.8¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$43	17.0¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$40	6.0¢
Will voter turnout in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 82% or more?	Politics	No	$25	99.2¢
Will Július Liška be the next Mayor of Plzeň?	Politics	No	$24	96.0¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$23	7.0¢
Will Pavlína Springerová be the next Mayor of Hradec Králové?	Politics	Yes	$9	45.0¢
Will Matouš Pelikán be the next Mayor of Olomouc?	Politics	Yes	$3	5.0¢
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.9¢

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$7.5k @ 50.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$7.5k @ 50.0¢
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Politics
No$5.8k @ 94.9¢
Will voter turnout in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 97.1¢
Will voter turnout in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be less than 76%?Politics
No$935 @ 97.7¢
Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Politics
No$922 @ 90.0¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Politics
Yes$801 @ 92.3¢
Will the Justice and Welfare Party (UCID) win the most seats in the next Somaliland parliamentary election?Politics
No$522 @ 97.9¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Politics
No$306 @ 78.4¢
Will Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?Politics
No$238 @ 90.0¢
Will 'Aisake Hoatatau Finau win the Ongo Niua 17 by-election?Politics
No$129 @ 89.2¢
Will Kamila Zlatušková be the next Mayor of Brno?Politics
Yes$58 @ 45.0¢
Will Václav Láska be the next Mayor of Prague?Politics
No$44 @ 92.8¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$43 @ 17.0¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$40 @ 6.0¢
Will voter turnout in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 82% or more?Politics
No$25 @ 99.2¢
Will Július Liška be the next Mayor of Plzeň?Politics
No$24 @ 96.0¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics
Yes$23 @ 7.0¢
Will Pavlína Springerová be the next Mayor of Hradec Králové?Politics
Yes$9 @ 45.0¢
Will Matouš Pelikán be the next Mayor of Olomouc?Politics
Yes$3 @ 5.0¢
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢