← Smart money
0x9cd5…9f12
ProfitableEdge
+32.6pp
ROI
+8%
Win rate
67% @ 34.8¢
Brier
0.334
Resolved
101
Avg size
$103
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 60% (3/5) | +104% | 5 |
| Politics | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Other5 bets
- Hit rate
- 60% (3/5)
- ROI
- +104%
- Politics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
50% hit · 3/6| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | No | $899 | 21.1¢ | Lost |
| Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | Yes | $316 | 27.7¢ | Lost |
| Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | Yes | $1.8k | 33.5¢ | Won |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | $500 | 75.0¢ | Won |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | $4.9k | 30.8¢ | Lost |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | No | $2.0k | 38.4¢ | Won |
- No$899 @ 21.1¢
- Yes$316 @ 27.7¢
- Yes$1.8k @ 33.5¢
- Yes$500 @ 75.0¢
- Yes$4.9k @ 30.8¢
- No$2.0k @ 38.4¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Politics | Yes | $1.6k | 39.9¢ |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Politics | No | $1.0k | 33.1¢ |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Politics | No | $804 | 43.7¢ |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $647 | 22.7¢ |
| Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $554 | 10.4¢ |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Politics | No | $502 | 19.0¢ |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $486 | 36.8¢ |
| Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? | Politics | No | $443 | 8.0¢ |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $407 | 49.0¢ |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? | Politics | No | $387 | 21.5¢ |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $3 | 42.0¢ |
| Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $2 | 13.0¢ |
- Yes$1.6k @ 39.9¢
- No$1.0k @ 33.1¢
- No$804 @ 43.7¢
- Yes$647 @ 22.7¢
- Yes$554 @ 10.4¢
- No$502 @ 19.0¢
- Yes$486 @ 36.8¢
- No$443 @ 8.0¢
- Yes$407 @ 49.0¢
- No$387 @ 21.5¢
- Yes$3 @ 42.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 13.0¢