0x9c83…8a22

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9c83182cc3066bf1e8920a4f5de1428fb9d28a22
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.6pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

50% @ 42.9¢

Brier

0.149

Resolved

638

Avg size

$16

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	55% (126/229)	+14%	229
Politics	70% (14/20)	-4%	20
Geopolitics	100% (8/8)	+32%	8
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other229 bets
Hit rate
55% (126/229)
ROI
+14%
Politics20 bets
Hit rate
70% (14/20)
ROI
-4%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
100% (8/8)
ROI
+32%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

57% hit · 148/258

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran ceasefire before July?	Yes	$21	10.5¢	Lost
North Korea missile test by September 15?	No	$21	30.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$28	48.0¢	Lost
Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?	No	$10	17.0¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords in 2025?	No	$51	69.0¢	Won
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in April?	No	$8	18.4¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	Yes	$63	31.8¢	Lost
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?	Yes	$7	69.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?	Yes	$98	36.4¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	No	$184	48.6¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	Yes	$195	38.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	$21	4.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Beautiful coal" or "Clean coal" during his AI speech on July 23?	Yes	$22	44.0¢	Won
Will Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025?	No	$11	82.0¢	Won
Iran strike on Qatar today?	Yes	$137	60.9¢	Won
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$33	11.8¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$20	40.0¢	Won
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?	No	$25	25.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$31	80.0¢	Won
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?	No	$15	70.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	No	$69	69.0¢	Won
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$23	82.0¢	Won
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?	No	$42	83.0¢	Won
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?	No	$176	78.8¢	Won
Internet Access restored in Iran by March 14, 2026?	Yes	$9	6.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before September?	No	$19	48.3¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran before August?	No	$33	30.0¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$58	53.9¢	Won
Will the number of Israel Rocket Alerts since Operation Lion's Roar be at least 24,000 by March 20?	No	$31	65.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?	Yes	$16	25.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Beautiful coal" or "Clean coal" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?	Yes	$60	66.9¢	Won
Will Trump spend 7+ days golfing in May?	No	$33	33.0¢	Lost
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?	No	$104	38.8¢	Won
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?	Yes	$42	65.0¢	Lost
Will Netanyahu say "Palestine" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?	Yes	$75	45.3¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$18	88.0¢	Won
Khamenei seen in public by March 7?	No	$38	38.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	$26	71.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$32	84.4¢	Won
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?	No	$34	70.0¢	Won
Another Houthi strike on Israel in May?	Yes	$60	48.2¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	No	$23	33.0¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	$85	57.8¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	No	$33	80.6¢	Won
Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda by July 31?	No	$51	79.0¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before July?	Yes	$47	23.5¢	Lost
Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?	No	$20	40.0¢	Lost
Will Iranian officials visit the White House before August?	No	$81	81.0¢	Won
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?	No	$7	88.0¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by September 22?	Yes	$31	31.0¢	Lost

US x Iran ceasefire before July? Lost
Yes$21 @ 10.5¢
North Korea missile test by September 15?Won
No$21 @ 30.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$28 @ 48.0¢
Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Lost
No$10 @ 17.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords in 2025?Won
No$51 @ 69.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in April?Won
No$8 @ 18.4¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Lost
Yes$63 @ 31.8¢
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?Won
Yes$7 @ 69.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?Won
Yes$98 @ 36.4¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Won
No$184 @ 48.6¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Lost
Yes$195 @ 38.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
Yes$21 @ 4.1¢
Will Trump say "Beautiful coal" or "Clean coal" during his AI speech on July 23?Won
Yes$22 @ 44.0¢
Will Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025?Won
No$11 @ 82.0¢
Iran strike on Qatar today?Won
Yes$137 @ 60.9¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$33 @ 11.8¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$20 @ 40.0¢
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?Lost
No$25 @ 25.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$31 @ 80.0¢
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Lost
No$15 @ 70.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Won
No$69 @ 69.0¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$23 @ 82.0¢
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?Won
No$42 @ 83.0¢
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?Won
No$176 @ 78.8¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by March 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 6.0¢
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before September?Won
No$19 @ 48.3¢
Israel strikes Iran before August?Won
No$33 @ 30.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$58 @ 53.9¢
Will the number of Israel Rocket Alerts since Operation Lion's Roar be at least 24,000 by March 20?Won
No$31 @ 65.0¢
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?Won
Yes$16 @ 25.0¢
Will Trump say "Beautiful coal" or "Clean coal" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?Won
Yes$60 @ 66.9¢
Will Trump spend 7+ days golfing in May?Lost
No$33 @ 33.0¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?Won
No$104 @ 38.8¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?Lost
Yes$42 @ 65.0¢
Will Netanyahu say "Palestine" during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Lost
Yes$75 @ 45.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$18 @ 88.0¢
Khamenei seen in public by March 7?Won
No$38 @ 38.0¢
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?Won
No$26 @ 71.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$32 @ 84.4¢
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$34 @ 70.0¢
Another Houthi strike on Israel in May?Lost
Yes$60 @ 48.2¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
No$23 @ 33.0¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
Yes$85 @ 57.8¢
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?Won
No$33 @ 80.6¢
Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda by July 31?Won
No$51 @ 79.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before July?Lost
Yes$47 @ 23.5¢
Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?Lost
No$20 @ 40.0¢
Will Iranian officials visit the White House before August?Won
No$81 @ 81.0¢
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?Won
No$7 @ 88.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by September 22?Lost
Yes$31 @ 31.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?	Politics	No	$32	64.0¢
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Politics	No	$29	92.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$26	70.0¢
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Politics	Opp.	$17	39.0¢
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$17	33.0¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$16	52.0¢
Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	No	$12	53.3¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win 7-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$11	7.1¢
Will Reservists – New Economic Party win less than 2.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$10	26.0¢
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$9	17.2¢
Will parties below the electoral threshold receive between 6% and 8% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$4	20.0¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.9¢

Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?Politics
No$32 @ 64.0¢
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?Politics
No$29 @ 92.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$26 @ 70.0¢
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?Politics
Opp.$17 @ 39.0¢
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$17 @ 33.0¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$16 @ 52.0¢
Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
No$12 @ 53.3¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win 7-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$11 @ 7.1¢
Will Reservists – New Economic Party win less than 2.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$10 @ 26.0¢
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$9 @ 17.2¢
Will parties below the electoral threshold receive between 6% and 8% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$4 @ 20.0¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢